> In a dogfight an F-35 has an advantage but not a 3-1 advantage. BVR it might.
BVR It's quite limited by its limited weapons load. Disregarding external weapons (if it uses any, it's no longer stealthy) it will either have 2 long range missiles or 4. Most likely the former, if it wants to also accomplish an attack mission in which it will use 2 bays for ground attack and 2 bays for medium range AA.
Now consider that it's not uncommon in BVR to launch 2 missiles at each BVR target in order to raise the chances of a hit. So basically: a stealth F-35 can attack one aircraft in BVR Then it is out of missiles. An aging fourth gen opponent will likely carry six. So the math doesn't work out in favor of the F-35 in BVR if it faces even two fourth gen aircraft. It likely fire and turn back - because it's out of AMRAAMs after the first engagement.
Any airforce with a huge fleet of aging 4th gen fighters and a lax attitude towards losing them and their pilots, can be a very effective defense against F-35's.
> Disregarding external weapons (if it uses any, it's no longer stealthy)
I wonder how much less stealthy it using external weapons. I mean, it's not like an AMRAAM has a gigantic radar signature already. Is radar signature additive? Would an F-35 with external missiles have a radar signature of an F-35 + those missiles, or does having those missiles attached to the body have some sort of interaction that makes the whole signature much bigger?
Because if mounting missiles externally results in reduced but still a decent degree of stealth, you can cram 8x AMRAAMs and 2 sidewinders on the F-35.
The way you get around this, you do a "fighter sweep" to kill all enemy fighters and then you do a bomb attack to bomb the ground targets.
Planes do not get loaded with every single potential weapon they may want to use. They have specific missions and they get armored for the specific mission.
BVR It's quite limited by its limited weapons load. Disregarding external weapons (if it uses any, it's no longer stealthy) it will either have 2 long range missiles or 4. Most likely the former, if it wants to also accomplish an attack mission in which it will use 2 bays for ground attack and 2 bays for medium range AA.
Now consider that it's not uncommon in BVR to launch 2 missiles at each BVR target in order to raise the chances of a hit. So basically: a stealth F-35 can attack one aircraft in BVR Then it is out of missiles. An aging fourth gen opponent will likely carry six. So the math doesn't work out in favor of the F-35 in BVR if it faces even two fourth gen aircraft. It likely fire and turn back - because it's out of AMRAAMs after the first engagement.
Any airforce with a huge fleet of aging 4th gen fighters and a lax attitude towards losing them and their pilots, can be a very effective defense against F-35's.