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I'm gonna make a contrarian prediction: consumer-facing technology won't change much over the next 10-15 years. Self-driving cars, smart clothes, artificial meat/meat substitutes, and AR/VR will all fail to become mainstream, each with less than 5-10% consumer adoption across the general population (partial autonomy in cars may become common, but full L5 autonomy won't). The real changes will be invisible, mainly changes to infrastructure. I predict that the grid will become much smarter and more resilient, with seamless coordination across millions of generators and endpoints (think EVs and rooftop solar). Similarly, at least one widely used decentralized alternative to the web will emerge, possibly passed on blockchain tech. I also predict that at least one widely-used cryptosystem will be broken; the resulting chaos will represent a major political and social headache. Political polarization and fake news will only get worse. Several states which are currently red, such as Texas and Georgia, will become purple due to changing demographics, representing a huge shift in the distribution of political power in the US. There will be at least one major recession. Another of the big European countries (maybe Italy?) will leave the EU, and Scotland will leave the UK. The middle east will remain a mess, but conditions in Africa will improve substantially, leading to several new fortunes being created. There will major progress on HIV and Alzheimer's, but cancer will remain a tough nut.


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