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I'm reminded always of the Hunt brothers that tried (and failed) to corner the silver market in the 70's/80's:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday



Basically the COMEX changed the rules explicitly to disadvantage the Hunt Brothers. The changes made to margin requirements is what made the difference here. I don't think anyone could claim that the silver market is an entirely free market, I remember last year a press release where the COMEX said they weren't sure how much they actually had in their vaults in eligible and registered, with a plus/minus 50% figure being given on their estimates. I can't think of any other major market where someone would come out and say they didn't know how much inventory they had and that their best estimate could be 50% off. And the participants in the silver market are still rather ridiculous to this day: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-pay-60-mln...


Would some cryptocurrency stuff count? We have no idea how much a handful of whales control Bitcoin or Eth. The tether thing seems really shaky too with how much they actually have in reserves. Same with a number of exchanges or major market players.

Cryptocurrency is also a bit wonky because of always including forever lost access to a solid percentage of the currency. Bitcoin is the most notable.


Tether is an enormous fraud and the financial reporting of the reserves has just never been up to generally accepted standards.

The thing with crypto is that much like some of these other commodity markets there's less real trading volume than many people think (there's been a lot of wash trading going on: https://cryptobriefing.com/binance-wash-trading-icebergs-tip...). Where crypto is very different from the futures markets is that you can just buy the stuff directly because the costs of holding it are much lower. Say I want to invest in oil, it's a massive pain in the ass to build warehousing to start taking delivery, whereas something like crypto is much easier for a company or individual to hold. From this point of view there's very real non-regulatory reasons why trading futures for oil makes sense whereas this is not so for cryptocurrencies.


Ah yes this makes sense


Bitcoin is best example. Somehow currency we aren't sure how much is reachable anymore should come some sort of gold standard... Like at any moment significant fraction of it could be dumped on market. Probably won't, but it is not entirely certain...


Bitcoin is a lot less liquid than many people think, a lot of wash trading has occurred recently that has obscured this.


I wish there was better or more reporting and stuff on this. I have assumed this is the case. But :/


Saudi oil reserves for one


I don’t get it. Wiki only says they failed because of the other institution changing the rules because of them. What’s the analogy to housing or Zillow?

Sure they failed. But the only data we have is that they failed because of something very specific which doesn’t relate to much else.




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