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I said this again recently, but it's worth repeating: Netflix is on the very fast downward slope. Their catalog is wilting, the space is heating up with well-established competitors moving in and serving the precise content that Netflix originally built their brand on, and their efforts to fund a new catalog with new IP (and taking ownership of old IP) is destroying the business model that made them so appealing in the first place. The writing is very nearly on the wall. At one point, long ago, the Netflix CEO (?) said they were trying to become HBO before HBO became them. And, frankly, they failed. They are still the industry leader, but only for a moment.


While I don't entirely agree with you I do think the price of Netflix is getting a little higher than the value we personally get out of it. Our personal breakdown this year (in the UK):

Adults in the house, we are quite picky but if we love it then we will keep watching:

  Netflix @£9.99: 2 tv shows, 4-5 films 
  Apple TV+ @£4.99: 3 tv shows, 2 films
  Disney Plus @£7.99: 1 tv show, Loads of movies
  Amazon Prime @£7.99: 3 tv shows, quite a few films, plus "free" shipping!
Kids (3 and 7):

  Netflix: They watch quite quite allot but we don't give them free access even to the kids profile (*see note)
  Apple TV+: Only 1 tv show, but haven't really explored.
  Disney Plus: All of it, I think they have "completed" it!...
  Amazon Prime: None
Disney is by far the best value for money for us as a family, Apple TV+ for us grownups is best value. I don't think we would get rid of any but Netflix is probably now the least value.

Point is, Netflix know from their retention metrics that you only need a couple of shows that a customer loves to keep them subscribed. Add in some content to amuse their kids and it's a done deal.

*Note: Netflix seems to still show image for adult shows in search results in the kids profile even if not available when clicked on, some of this images can be quite aggressive. Hence not giving the kids free access


After having sampled Disney+, HBOMax, Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime a fair bit in the past year, my take is that Netflix has the UX nailed. I can, for instance, "thumbs down" a recommendation. Some offerings I never want to see. Their catalog tends to the darker themes, and I'm not fond of that.

Hulu and Amazon Prime are mostly irrelevant to me. I'll probably axe the Hulu sub.

HBO has a few things I like. Disney+ targets the kids/family/lighter theme demographic tightly.

I think that the general provider landscape is a bit overdone; some consolidation would be welcomed by consumers, and any competitor that falls behind in offerings will crash exponentially.


UX is a night and day difference between Netflix and its competitors. It's mind-boggling that the giants like Disney and HBO can't even get close. It's especially more noticeable on slow devices like Smart TV's.


With respect, I hate, loathe, and despise the auto-play part of the Netflix UI. I hate that more than anything else I could possibly love about Netflix. Far too fucking distracting while you’re trying to focus on something else that you might actually want to watch.

And yes, I’ve gone into the settings to turn that feature off, and it doesn’t entirely work. It does reduce the auto-play somewhat, but not entirely.

I’ll fucking delete my Netflix account and the Netflix app from our AppleTV device, if that shit gets any worse.


> And yes, I’ve gone into the settings to turn that feature off, and it doesn’t entirely work. It does reduce the auto-play somewhat, but not entirely.

Not sure what you mean by not entirely? I've got both 'autoplay next episode' and 'autoplay previews' turned off and don't think I see it anywhere anymore, which dramatically improved the experience.


I’ve turned off both, and it has improved things, but I still find cases where it decides to fucking auto play anyway. Really fucking annoying, when I’ve supposedly turned off all the goddamn autopsy shit.


You're absolutely right, I don't like it either, and I hated it at the beginning. But, now I got accustomed to it so much that now other apps feel eerily quiet to me. It's been very interesting to observe that change of perspective on myself. I consider myself successfully brainwashed with it. Now, I feel like I'm browsing shelves in a store with noises, and the other apps feel like empty stores, if that makes sense?


You're right, even with the "autoplay" settings turned off when you drop into a TV show's subsection it will automatically start playing the next episode. Incredibly frustrating when you just want to check episode length of number of episodes per season.


It's the minor things that jump out to me.

Peacock uses a white glow around the preview picture as their selection indicator. No border. Just a faint glow.

HBO Max has no way of navigating to a show page from your most recently viewed carousel. You have to find or search the show separately.

It's death by a thousand cuts, but jesus... use your competitor's app. See what UX works and what doesn't. I can't imagine any of the little stuff is actually patented.


Paramount+ has subtitles that are almost impossible to read with some videos. And you're forced to watch an unskippable ad for their other content when you start your first show of the day, even if you have the commercial free plan.

Amazon Prime awkwardly splits their shows into individual seasons ('series' in UK) in such a way that it's difficult to ascertain how much of the show you'll actually be able to watch on Prime. Other seasons may be available to rent, purchase, watch on one of their partner subscription services, and/or watch for free on their IMDb TV ad-supported service, all of which is haphazardly jumbled together in their main window in no particular order.


The thing I hate most about Amazon Prime is that I added shows to my watchlist that were free at the time, then when I went to watch them later, they cost. IMO, Amazon makes things free until they see if they're successful, then switch them to paid. This pissed me off so bad that I no longer spend any effort looking for shows to watch. If I don't find something in 10 minutes, I turn off the TV. Which is most of the time.

I split my Amazon Prime with my neighbor so she can get free shipping. She doesn't care about the TV part, and to me, it's not worth much either.


I spent 30 minutes once trying to get out of the credits for a Disney+ show and go to the episodes..back took me to the main page, and clicking the show took me right back into the episode exactly where I left off in the credits... I guess it was the last ep but I wasn't sure, and even tried fast forwarding to the end ...cause it was really long Marvel credits.

It should always take you to a show page, from there you should have options to continue or see info or go to episodes, etc...


Disney+ is similar to HBO Max. "Continue Watching" often takes me to the episode I just watched, and there's no way to get to the episode list from there. I usually access shows I'm in the middle of by going to my Watchlist, which always takes me to season 1, episode 1.

Meanwhile on Hulu, I recently watched episode 1 of Over the Garden Wall and instead of continuing on the the next episode, it autoplayed the episode of a completely different series.

They're in a really sorry state UX-wise.


> HBO Max has no way of navigating to a show page from your most recently viewed carousel. You have to find or search the show separately.

Hit play then as soon as it starts hit back, you’ll be at the show.

My guess is most remotes or TVs don’t support long press or other alt-clicks so they just implement the main thing people would want in that carousel. Even on AppleTV or other platforms that have long press.


I agree with you that the Netflix UI is superb for browsing, however I have one major gripe - on Android TV they broke the back button.

I had to hardcode a kill app shortcut just for them.

For all other android tv apps that I have been using so far, the back button works normally, exiting the app at the topmost layer. However, repeated clicks of the back button in netflix UI just re-triggers the menu - part of their dark patterns to make it harder to quit the app...


I think back button suddenly closing the app is more hostile. When you do it accidentally, the recovery steps are painful (app switch, find app, focus to it etc). I totally understand why Netflix would prevent it from happening. I think iPhone solved it better than Android with the "super back" link or the app hopping gesture. Android could improve the back button with a long-press requirement in order to navigate away from the app too. In this current situation, Netflix is completely in the right to disable the behavior.


Sorry, I totally disagree that is is "completely in the right", I use 3 other video apps, they all give exit prompts instead, here is an example:

Netflix could have done what Prime video does

Prime Video: "Do you want to exit the app? (Yes/No)", then done

Netflix: scroll all the way down the menu options: Home, Play something, New & Popular, TV Shows, Movies, My List, Get Help, Exit Netflix (click), 8 clicks in total before you can exit.

So it takes orders of magnitude more clicks, and more time out of my life, every time I try to exit the Netflix app. Considering that exiting an app is something I do all the time, it is not great


I think the existence of exit prompts is sole admission of how painful this experience is for the users. The prompt itself can be a hindrance for the user too. I still think that it's an Android UX problem, not Netflix.


I feel like there are two minutes of ads for every ten minutes of content on Hulu. It's ridiculous that you have to pay even more for an experience that is similar to the flat rate on Netflix and Disney+.


I refuse to watch anything on Hulu. Every time my wife insists and makes me watch something she really, really wants to see on Hulu, I am reminded of why I refuse to watch it.

And yes, we have the highest level of Hulu+ that is supposed to avoid most ads.


I'm the same.... though we did watch Catherine the Great and that Murder Podcast one w/ Martin Short /Steve Martin...

The thing that irks me w/ Hulu -- we have kids sleeping and it'll be soft for the actual show, then the ad comes in and it's like 5 decibals louder. and we have to physically just mute the commercials... it's the most annoying thing ever!


Subtitles on Hulu on my Roku TV have been broken for months now, despite regular app updates. They work in every other streaming app. I’m this close to just investing in a seedbox…


I've been saying for a long time they need to team up, or a 3rd party and create bundles... that's basically $40/month and you get HBO, Netflix, Hulu, Prime, Disney+, Apple -- and the $40 is split $5 to the 3rd party company, and then based on 'hours watched' by users... so you can watch whatever and whoever you watch the most of gets the majority stake in your monthly fees.

As a bonus this actually encourages them to work hard for your views.


A problem is that voting and getting recommendations is a tiny market compared to Disney basically pumping out what people are wanting to watch.

Yes, you can say they just focus on family content. But that is kind of the point. They identified their market and cater to them really well. Who is the market for Netflix?

Their curse is that they can find untapped markets, but then the content owners can invest surprisingly well into clawing back that market.


I don't actually like 99% of the Disney+ catalog and don't watch it. I like watching the MCU aaaand that's about it. Its great that D+ hitting a niche and hitting it hard, but I don't want it. A pal of mine has basically seen all of it with his family though. Niches, right?

I would estimate the Netflix target market is basically the non-family under-35s. It's actually closer to my tastes in general. Netflix also has a better real international selection IMO.

There's no clear differentiator between any of the above outside of (1) UX and (2) content. They all are a means of schlepping video to my screen. They are all almost perfectly commodity in my opinion.


IF you want Disney+ but are on the fence about Hulu and you're in the US, there's a bundle. I'm not sure about elsewhere.

$13.99 for Disney+, Hulu (with ads), and ESPN+. $19.99 if you want the Hulu with no ads.

https://www.disneyplus.com/welcome/disney-hulu-espn-bundle


I've found on my streaming device that Netflix is seriously fast at buffering and playing once you press play compared to D+ and Prime. Like 2 seconds vs 10+ seconds. Of course could just be my device but seems like they have really optimised the UX.


Agree. Apple has a horrible UX for the reason that it doesn't support profiles alone.


It supports profiles on an Apple TV using the system-wide profile switcher. Don’t know about other platforms, I won’t connect any other set top box to the internet to find out lest they start spewing ads forever.


I wish all the apps integrated with the system-wide profiles.


I offed my Hulu sub a long time ago. Prime is free with my account so I'm largely indifferent (their UX is pretty painful).

Too bad Netflix doesn't have a sports deal for live content.


Whereas I hate, loathe, and despise pretty much all sports.

I’d be really happy if I could delete all sports from all video sources I have available to me, or at least just hide them so that I don’t have to look at any of that crap.


I'm about in your boat, except with HBO Max instead of Apple TV+ (their shows aren't as appealing to me). And as those numbers climb and I look at one to cut, Netflix is the easiest. That's the whole point, though: Netflix is going to be the service on the chopping block before these others.


Why aren't Apple's shows (and movies?) appealing to you? If you dropped them on HBO I wouldn't know the difference. There are lots of different genres, great actors, and compelling stories.

We have Netflix (via T-Mobile), Hulu, Prime, HBO, Disney+ and Apple TV. Some of these (Disney/Hulu) are from family or friends. WE only pay for Prime (probably the lowest quality of all of these) and Apple TV (because of Apple One subscription).

HBO and Apple TV and Disney+ have the best quality content IMO. Netflix is kind of around there sometimes but a lot of just pure garbage (Looking at you Cowboy Bebop). Hulu isn't bad. Comparable to Netflix but less content. Prime is just bad for the most part. If Wal-Mart had launched it instead it's about what I'd expect it to be.


> Why aren't Apple's shows (and movies?) appealing to you?

What actual content do they have?

I've seen a Beastie boys doc, Ted Lasso and The morning show * edited from Newsroom when my error was pointed out.

That's a month's worth of content. What else do they have to justify continuing a subscription?

Disney has more content with just the Simpson's episodes alone. Add on top of that the entire Marvel catalog, the entire Starwars Catalog and the entire Pixar catalog.


I enjoyed "For All Mankind", "See", and "The Invasion". I get it for free due to a laptop purchase. I'm not sure if I'll pay for it once that runs out..


Those are all good as well, but I'm sure the person you're replying to was unaware that they could watch them.

The UX of Apple TV+(which is a terrible name) is nothing but bait and switch. After my first week of using my free subscription I completely gave up on trying to browse on the app.

90% of the content I would click on would then ask me for 5 to twenty dollars to pay for it, which is ultimately just a rental until Apple decides they aren't interested in running a streaming service anymore. There's no indication it's pay until you're already excited to watch a show and click on it.

There are good shows on there now, but I only ever bother to open the app when I see an article listing best shows on streaming services and happen to see an Apple one. Sitting down to relax and just opening the app brings about nothing but frustration.


I agree, the app is horrifically bad. Its hard to find the included content, it takes a long time for it to bring up the description of the video, the play delay is terrible, and it has smooth fast forward/rewind which I personally despise.

The only thing that makes it worth dealing with is the excellent content. Oh, and the fact that I can generally download something quickly to watch on a plane after boarding but before takeoff, since T-Mobile throttles Netflix, but apparently not AppleTV.


Do you mean The Morning Show? The Newsroom was an HBO series that ran for 3 seasons from 2012-2014.


Do they have extra features? The kind of stuff that used to come on DVDs?


Not OP but the only show I've enjoyed on ATV+ was Ted Lasso. They have no back catalog either. Not enough content to even get me to browse around. Only had it because they bundled it with student subs of Apple Music, otherwise never would have subbed.


> Why aren't Apple's shows (and movies?) appealing to you?

Isn't this basically just asking why doesn't Ted Lasso appeal to you? I think the biggest problem is Apple doesn't have much of a catalog.


Ted Lasso is the best thing there, but far from the only thing. The catalog is pretty solid. I personally loved Mythic Quest and Schmigadoon. I have mixed feelings about Foundation as an adaptation, but I like it pretty well as a stand-alone thing.

Looking forward to trying out For All Mankind, See, Macbeth, and Invasion; the first two seem especially well liked by friends.

Bounced off Physical and Dickinson, but that had nothing to do with the quality of the shows; they're well made and have excellent acting.

The wide variety of stories and genres are lacking, but I think the quality of the average Apple TV+ show is quite a bit higher than the average Netflix show, on par with most of HBO.


HBO is known for hugely popular shows with critical acclaim. Just last year, HBO had Succession, Mare of Easttown, and The White Lotus in several top-10 lists. It's hard to compare the mostly-okay offerings from Apple TV to either the current HBO shows or its back catalog full of hits.


> I think the quality of the average Apple TV+ show is quite a bit higher than the average Netflix show

Netflix has a ton of content so 'average' is going to differ based on your algorithm. But in the last year I can think of... The Crown, You, Cobra Kai, The Queen's Gambit, Bridgerton, Squid Games, Arcane all being massive successes. There are probably more I'm forgetting because they pump them out month after month.

> on par with most of HBO.

Maybe on par with HBO Max Originals...


No, I just thought that as someone who is highly critical of TV shows and movies that even I found a few shows to be good. I was just surprised given the number of different genres that there was nothing whatsoever that was appealing to the person I was replying to.

I agree they don’t have much of a catalog, but they also don’t charge much and give the service away bundled with new devices. It’ll take some time to build up content. No big deal.


There isn't a lot but For All Mankind is great and The Morning Show is pretty good. Foundation is OK.


I agree. If I had to pick 2, it would be HBO and Apple TV+.

If I had to pick 1...probably HBO because their movie rotation generally has great classics.


I like some Apple TV shows a lot, but there's not a lot. RN I think I'm "finished" with what I really wanted to watch: Ted Lasso, Central Park, Dickinson. I started Acapulco and it's nice, but things in other platforms seems more appealing.

That being said, I think as they expand, it's going to get pretty good.


I have enjoyed Ted Lasso, For All Mankind, and Foundation. That’s all I can recall at the moment for AppleTV+. Still enough to make it worthwhile as part of my AppleOne account.


I'm surprised YouTube isn't on your list. We having streaming services, but my kids mostly watch YouTube.


Youtube is pretty magical. It has everything, even in the "kid zone". Which also means I can't leave them unsupervised for 30 minutes and come back.

If I do, my kids will've gone from educational video about the rain forest to sponsored video to toy videos to slime to fart jokes to music videos of bikini-clad bimbos to steamy romance videos to ...

Anyway it's just too much work to curate youtube for a child, IMO.

For example, my kiddo found a bunch of inappropriately steamy fan fiction for her favorite cartoons narrated on youtube... and she demonstrated that she knew it was inappropriate because she started hiding her screen from us.


The other thing we find with our 3 year old is that he can have his tablet and watch movies or shows on Netflix/VLC, etc. and it's pretty much all positive.

But he always prefers YouTube and when he's using YouTube, he mostly watches 3-5 minutes of something before getting enticed by another thumbnail.

At times when he's had free reign to YT, it really seems to drastically affect his general attention, patience, temperament and even ability to sleep (he wakes up super early asking for his tablet).

Once we cut it off hard, he goes back to normal.

We don't really believe in complete abstinence of those sorts of things (I think it will just make him even more sensitive to those algorithms in the future) but being aware of the effect, reducing YT and prioritizing actual movies/series has made a noticeable difference.


As they get older, you’ll also find YouTube Kids serves as the primary gateway for consumerism / corporations to begin influencing your child. Between Netflix / Disney+, the traditional 30s television commercial has effectively disappeared for kids. Corporations have pivoted to sponsored content on YouTube kids.

YT Kids most popular channels are streamed play sessions and toy reviews with superhuman production values and unrealistic depictions of what the toys can do. Once a child has watched an episode of LOL doll play along (for example), YouTube algorithm will recommend LOL doll collection videos, which associate completist collecting with peer group social acceptance. Free to play video game spots were even worse, directly focusing on alluring introduction of the game’s addiction economy.

I gave my children access to YouTube kids for some of the excellent educational content reasoning that it would be a relatively safe experience. Within a month their homepage and all recommendations (and I do mean 100%) were sponsored 5-15 minute long toy commercials. Their interest in animals, nature, science, and dinosaur programming remained strong but disappeared entirely from view outside of keyword search.

All YT and Google apps are now removed from the devices they use. I allow unsupervised use of PBS Kids, PBS in general, Nat Geo, Disney Plus and Netflix Kids (with time limits) but YouTube is filtered from my kids devices at the router. They are not allowed Google accounts; all YouTube content access is done via keyword search with a parent selecting the material and remaining in the room during viewing.

There are programs on YouTube that can’t be replicated anywhere else. But the recommendation engine is distilled corruption and dismay.


You could use a different YouTube client perhaps. I use newpipe. It doesn't really do those recommendations.

But in general I really hate video sites too so I don't use it much at all. Too many harebrained "influencers" now trying to sell stuff


My kids couldn’t handle youtube. They would watch algorithmically created garbage (5yo) or endless game streaming (9yo) and be impossible to handle afterwards. First we did youtube time-outs, but every time we added it back into the mix we saw their behavior get worse, so eventually we banned youtube outright. Give me a curated platform like disney or netflix any day.


Youtube is not for kids; TOS does not allow it.



And? Small percentage bothers to use, and it’s not foolproof on inappropriateness. They were caught surveilling kids also.


This is exactly our experience with Youtube.

I can sit with my kid and watch a couple episodes of a show I've never heard of (Like Bluey) and say, "Yep, this is a definite thumbs up. You can watch Bluey when you have screen time" And I trust that when an episode ends, another episode of Bluey is what will show up.

For a youtube channel, I have to watch the entire video and I can say, "Yep, you can watch this exact video. Make sure autoplay is off."

I have no clue what video would play next. I have no clue what product the youtuber will try to shill in the middle of the video, etc.


I see so many of these complaints about YT having lots of good family-friendly content but at the same time being terrible at curation even in the kids mode.

Seems like the problem can be solved with a crowdsourced list of family-friendly videos (on GitHub?) managed by trusted collaborators and then a simple page that embeds only these videos?

Over time I assume it should work given enough people contributing. It's not like the content needs to be kept continuously up to date either (unless old videos disappear faster than new ones are added).


The problem is that the business model of YT kids contact creators contains incentives similar to those of SEO farms operating in the Google keyword ecosystem. Good content is shouldered aside by low effort, low value, high profit messaging.


Youtube tries to "hook" you. Between autoplay and recommended thumbnails (that can't be disabled) it's easy to get "hijacked".

The worst part is that recommendations aren't in line with the content level of what you are viewing.


Don’t even try. You would basically have to rewrite the entire YouTube client to get rid of all the dark patterns.


It's already done though: https://github.com/iv-org/invidious


Absolutely no YouTube for our kids, just don’t trust it, not even their kids app. Too many stories of bad content.

Here in the uk we have the joy that is CBeebies and CBBC, so have iPlayer (and all the other kids BBC apps) on iPads for the kids.

The only other one we let them have free reign on is Disney+, I’m sure this will change for the older one soon.


Wish there was a way to block everything and whitelist allowed channels. There are some really quality ones but there are also a bunch of really creepy content, even in the kids app.


Does the kids app show ads? Aside from the creepy content (which required in-person parental filtering) the advertising was the thing that drove us away from YouTube.

It's fine on a laptop or desktop where you can run an ad blocker. It's not fine when you're trying to let kiddo watch YouTube on an actual TV screen.


Yes, on certain channels. Some channels are ad-free, but this can change over time. A channel that’s ad-free on the YT Kids app today doesn’t have to be ad-free tomorrow.


There’s a paid version of YouTube that doesn’t have ads.


Things my son (2 and a half) likes to watch on YT:

- Lorry trucks (semis/big rigs) driving on the road/motorway

- The tube/trains/subways coming in and out of stations

- Large excavators digging in quarries and loading dump trucks

The videos are usually pretty slow paced and calm, and we're happy to let him watch in small blocks (5-10 mins max) from time to time. He's shown no interest in typical cartoons, kids shows, etc. I'd love to cut off YT completely, but are there other places to get this type of content for him?


I've seen DVDs of some of these.


Don't forget the heaping tablespoon of surveillance.


In previous threads I’ve asked about the same thing and some parents have very strong opinions about what’s available on YouTube.

I remember one thread in particular where someone told me that you could find some very strange stuff just by typing a period in the search box (autocomplete does the rest, NSFW if that’s not obvious), and that school age Kids tend to figure this out or share this “trick” amongst themselves. So to each their own, but I’m not a parent yet so I abstain from having any strong opinions for the moment.


Has everyone forgotten Elsagate already?


I wasn’t aware of it.


What the actual fuuuck. Tried searching just a dot and I got a fish cutting video, an indian woman being slapped around, and some creepy horror doll shit.


Seems you got further than I did. I scrolled through and decided “there be dragons” and left it at that.

There’s an audience for everything but I am not the audience for everything.


Not even - those were my top results.

Yeah I noped tf out pretty quick too. This isn't even the first time I've seen crazy shit about YT - these parents are 100% right not to let their kids on unsupervised. Weird how it's not news more often tbh.


YouTube is a terrifying cascade of "wtf" for children.

IMO it's completely unsuitable for unsupervised children under, say, 13.


Interesting that their terms of service specifically prohibit children under 13, but a lot of people still insist it is good for them and ignore it.


Hulu (ad free) and HBO Max are easily the best services I have, these days. It's not even close. D+ is a bargain if you have kids and intend to let them watch any streaming at all. Apple TV only stays around because it's cheap and was free for quite a while initially. I've watched like two shows and a couple movies on it in the ~15 months I've had it. Probably ought to cancel, really. Netflix and Amazon (better catalog than Netflix but UI—on every platform—so bad that I rarely use it) are on my personal chopping block. I doubt I'll have either by next year.


Sadly no Hulu or HBO Max in the uk, but I think the better shows end up on other services here.

I think we get some Hulu shows on Disney Plus under the Star banner.


Stillwater and the new Snoopy show are quite good Apple TV+ shows for kids. But otherwise, Apple TV+ has been very meh. We only have it because we have the big bundle for the icloud storage.


Our kids love Snoopy.

To quote my wife though “I would pay for Apple TV+ just for Ted Lasso”. That says allot about how people look at these services.

Apple are treating their tv service the way they do their whole product range, small number of products but done very well.


Although, if you're interested in one offering on a service, you really only need to be actively subscribed for 1-2 months a year (to watch the newest season)?


I think that's a major challenge here and it will ultimately drive up the costs for everyone.

Subscribe for 6 months = 50% annual discount

Subscribe for 4 months = 67% annual discount

Subscribe for 2 months = 83% annual discount

etc. And that looks great!

But producing the content costs the same regardless. So as more people do this, a vicious cycle will set in. Prices must increase to cover production costs with shorter subscription periods. Rising prices cause more people to shift to cycling through shorter subscriptions. Which further drives prices higher.

Basically you end up with the a la carte cable nightmare where you pay the same amount to for access to only one channel at a time. The only real way to stop this is to switch to longer term discounts and early termination fees or bundles.


Or maybe the market will naturally transition to an a la carte model, and we will maybe pay more for that one show we have to watch, but pay less overall, and have fewer recurring bills to clean up?


That would be great actually to move to a purely commoditized model where producers are paid directly. I think there's actually something extremely messed up about pricing. For example you can purchase the entire season of a show for less than a subscription and have permanent access to it.


Netflix has by far the easiest to use download feature (for Amazon Fire). As long as that's the case I'll be a subscriber so my daughter has something to watch when flying.


Same here. We’ve cancelled everything except for Disney+. Well, we also have Amazon prime, but that is mainly for the shipping. We rarely watch anything on Amazon.


I cancelled Disney+ when they wanted to charge extra for a movie, on top of the subscription. I'll just buy the DVD cheaper than what they asked for on top of the sub.

Admittedly, I'm not automatically entitled to all the things they release but still feels wrong and wanted to vote with my wallet.

The Mandalorian was an amazing series though!


That is only temporary. Within a few weeks everything becomes free. If you can’t wait a few weeks, there is always the buccaneer bay.


I hadn't figured that out, thanks!


You know that Apple TV+ has an artificially low rate to get people on Platorm and will do the same thing as Netflix over time (that is escalate its pricing).


To restrict a kids profile you need to go to the website and reduce their rating ceiling, then put a passcode on the other profiles.

Probably needs a recent client as well. One of our tablets couldn’t upgrade, believe it was because it was on Android 4.x or something.


Is there any decent way of creating a custom kids profile, ideally one that cuts across multiple services? For example, I would like my child to be able to watch 5 shows on Disney+, 4 movies on Netflix, etc.


Download the content and put it on a device to watch offline. You'll have complete control of what content is available.


UK .. slightly off-topic but you (and I) are also paying £13.25 a month for the BBC...


Respectfully, this is a lazy take. If you even slightly dig into the numbers the price increase makes complete sense. Netflix spent 17 billion dollars on content last year. They are outspending competitors 2 to 1 if not more. Their catalog is thriving - you have big names like DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Ryan Reynolds, Gal Gadot, The Rock etc signing on for movies. You have shows like Squid Game attracting ridiculous numbers. Netflix is, if anything, signaling how confident they are of their position by asserting their dominance over the market by raising rates. They know their offering is too good for subscribers to cancel. And most will gladly pay and keep paying if the Netflix content engine keeps churning.


I honestly don't see how their catalog is thriving. A lot of popular TV series and movies have moved to their own streaming services and I can only speak for myself, but I find the vast majority of Netflix Originals to be big budget, but at the same time low quality content. They produce some real gems, but I find that those are usually few and far between.

Combined with how frustrating their library is to explore, at least on desktop, I'm really having trouble justifying a Netflix subscription.

Endless horizontal scrolling which repeatedly presents the same movies/TV shows on sequential pages, extremely limited information before you click on a show and various other quirks in their UI add up to an extremely frustrating experience, to the point when I'm strongly considering going back to piracy.


Netflix has produced some good movies in recent years. Your big budget talk applies much more to disney marvel money milking the same cows with the same movie variation over and over and consistently riding the remake agenda of all their classics (which I liked tbh).


Can you name a few? I can only think of three memorable ones; Annihilation (genuinely good film IMO), Bright (mediocre; decent worldbuilding but lacking) and Bird Box (mediocre, massive budget spent on promotion and hype).

I get big "direct-to-dvd" vibes with most other stuff they put on. And nobody talks about these films, which for me is a big indicator that it's not worth watching.

I'll admit Netflix spends a lot of money, but they spend it safely; they try to min/max their content, try to fit ever box / category.


Roma, Unforgivable, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Dont Look Up, Bird Box, The Irishman, lots of good movies, few of them are greatbut some are good.


It's a lazy take because it underappreciates that Netflix saw this coming for the last ten+ years.

They made the switch from physical, mail-order rental to digital streaming when the average connection supported a streaming model.

But as soon as they switched from owning content (DVDs) to leasing it (limited time streaming rights), they saw the countdown until the content owners would eventually have an equivalent platform offering.

That's what kicked off the Netflix originals spend, and continues to drive their content creation spend today.

Netflix is 100% sober that (1) they need enough already-owned back-catalog to stay competitive & (2) they will never be in a stronger future financial position than they are today.

So it's literally "accumulate content or die."

And I'm not crediting them with foresight. It was abundantly clear to everyone that eventually the content owners would see {cost of developing platform} < {content value being pocketed by Netflix}.

It was only a question of how long it would take the legacy companies to random stumble into a viable offering.

---

The more timely question is "What is Netflix's edge, once they've finished becoming a traditional content producer?"

Because from the last few years of hits and misses, they don't seem particularly better than HBO or Amazon Studios at picking winners.


The benefit of Netflix was that you could binge 7 seasons of a show you didn't get to see back when it was new, for whatever reason. They have to heavily promote their own content and often there are only one or two "seasons", where a season is only about 10 episodes.

In short they may be spending a ton on content, but so does all the others and while I do pay for Netflix, I continually wonder if I should just cancel.


That and they used to have an excellent catalog of movies. I haven't watched a full length feature film on Netflix in almost year, because all of it is such garbage. Prime Video has a better movie catalog than Netflix now. My kids very occasionally watch something on Netflix Kids, but that's not even compelling these days. It's a running joke in the household that my spouse will spend an hour trying to find something decent to watch, only to hand the remote to someone else, who immediately exits Netflix. And their original content is so bad often enough that we have to look at online reviews just to try to avoid wasting 30 minutes on something that'd make a B movie look good.

Honestly I don't know why I'm still paying.


Netflix absolutely needs to deal with shitty content for the same reason that Amazon needs to deal with fakes or crap: it's an existential threat to their brand.

Being Walmart doesn't work in a digital space, because you can't starve the business out from the physical neighborhood around you to prevent competition.

And once people get it in their heads that "All movies on Netflix are trash" or "All stuff on Amazon is trash," you have a much bigger problem.


But viewing numbers clearly show the public cares much more for novelty than you think.


Sure, but Netflix has also canceled some key originals while renewing some shows I feel like most of us on HB would agree are garbage.


Yes. Because most of us on HN are not their target demographic. You have to understand the average Netflix viewer is not a hacker nerd but a middle aged mom who watches Emily in Paris (their most popular show of 2020). :D


My personal taste agrees with this based on viewing their catalogue, but i'd like to see evidence that consumers agree, maybe the upcoming earnings report will show cracks in the foundation. Netflix has seemed pretty barren for a while and in trouble imo but then something like Squid Game becomes a global phenomenon and you realize that they have 213 million subscribers globally and likely a pretty good understanding at this point of what drives retention/churn.


Speaking of global, I have noticed that Netflix is one of the few who offers a variety of non-English/American targeted shows. There are quite a few Indian, Mandarin and Latino focused programs in their lineup, which I haven't seen on the other channels (except for HBO en Español).

Could it be that Netflix has seen that they can't compete in a crowded market with "the big boys" (though their bank share might disagree) and they're making the prudent, global market move? (I'm totally speculating and genuinely looking for an answer. Global enterprise is so far from my field)

EDIT: grammar


Actually most countries mandate a % of local content from Netflix. So they sponsor, buy, produce shows for that country and make it available to the world to expend the catalogue. That is quite nice for smaller director/producer to get access to a global crowd.

I remember a local movie (1) that became, almost over night, the most watched movie in Quebec's history with more than 21M viewer. Quebec population is ~8M.

(1) https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-first-netflix...


Yeah, they didn't come up with that on their own. But if others who I'd suppose will have to deal with the same regulations fail to make the best of it (e.g. if those others just check the boxes with some clever accounting tricks) it can very much become a unique brand feature. "Stuff that picks up unique qualities of country x fiction while pulling it up from the usual country x provinciality to global standards" can be a very powerful formula.


Yeah, it's pretty intentional. IIRC they set a few strategic international markets where they want to be the best content producer. They've been quite successful in that: Lupin (France), Dark (Germany), Money Heist and Elite (Spain); Kingdom and Squid Game (South Korea).


Also there’s a massive blob of Mandarin shows, especially in the Wuxia and Xianxia genres that appeals to both people with a Chinese background and some niche fandoms of those genres.

Almost all of my home screen in Netflix is foreign language shows because that’s what’s good on Netflix.


> Almost all of my home screen in Netflix is foreign language shows because that’s what’s good on Netflix.

Yeah, same here. I've watched an obscene amount of kdramas and they are adding new ones all the time.


> Speaking of global, I have noticed that Netflix is one of the few who offers a variety of non-English/American targeted shows.

That's something I love about Netflix. Watching German, Russian, Spanish, Danish TV shows is really cool for change


Agreed! La casa de papel (aka Money Heist) and Dark were both super enjoyable.

Do you watch anything particular in Russian or Danish?


Danish: I watched The Rain, and Chestnut Man is on my list to watch soon. I'm also interested in Elves and The Killing.

Russian: I loved Road To Calvary and To The Lake, and watched some of Better Than Us and liked it.

German: One of my favorite shows of all time is Babylon Berlin :)

Norwegian: Ragnarok is kinda interesting.

Egyptian: Paranormal is good, and only 5 episodes long.

Spanish: Cathedral of the Sea is interesting, and I loved Ministry of Time - although this one vanished from all online streamings :/

Swedish: The Restaurant is available on Sundance/Star or some other channels. Like Downton Abbey. Just watched a couple episodes, but it was nice

French: Lupin and Les Revenants (The Returned) - although I think the second is not on Netflix now, but somewhere else. Watched it many years ago

Belgium: not fantastic, but Thieves of the Wood is just one season long and enjoyable.

Italian: I liked Curon, although it didn't seem to please too many people, I think?

On my list: Trapped, which is Icelandic.

Cheat: Hinterland - it's made in both English and Welsh


"Fauda" from Israel is a good show. 3 seasons so far. Some of the writing is questionable, but it's good overall.


Yes, for example I like that Netflix has a variety of French and German shows.


I really enjoyed How to Sell Drugs Online (Fast) in dub+sub. Planning to rewatch it in the original German with subtitles.


This is purely anecdotal and subjective but I've tended to dislike Netflix's taste in content as well. I refused to subscribe for years as every time I watched Netflix at someone else's house it seemed to follow the same shallow, drivelly formula. That said there have been a few gems I loved as the volume of content grew, and I get some endurance out of their library of classics (content produced back in the network television days).


I wouldn't write them off yet. Disney, Apple and Amazon seem the only real competitors as this is a game of scale.

Disney is even more content limited and better for kids. Apple never got it right, cant see them fixing it now. And Amazon stuffed it between their mixed model where half the stuff you want to watch has extra fees + generally limited inclusive content, though the prime membership might buy that back. Both Disney and Amazon will fix the back catalogue with money I would guess, something Netflix should have done more aggressively before the competitors arrived.

While Netflix content is on the decline, there is a huge inertia in the best existing catalogue + 200million subscribers. It does surprise they haven't flooded extra content on the price increase as that is a good way to justify to users. Nothing worse than feeling there's a lack of content + pay increase.

My guess is Netflix keeps building the moat with content creation/ownership and we'll see mergers start kicking in as groups with back catalogues like HBO & NBC realise gaining/holding subscribers on smaller catalogues is hard and there more value in selling than renting. Who forks out more money at this point will probably win. Wild card is sport, that can be attractive and sticky if someone merges that in.


> I wouldn't write them off yet. Disney, Apple and Amazon seem the only real competitors as this is a game of scale.

Their play here might just be waiting for Paramount+ and Peacock to throw in the towel and license their catalogs.


As a consumer that's exactly what I'm waiting for, I don't need yet another streaming service. Would rather save my money and let those niche streams starve


Exactly; what we all want is a Spotify/Apple Music situation for video streaming, but it sadly never happened. This is where I'd like government to step in and require content licensing. If you offer it on your platform or for physical sale, you have to offer it to other streaming providers at a reasonable (this is complicated) price.


That would break lots of copyright laws.


> Wild card is sport, that can be attractive and sticky if someone merges that in.

Amazon Prime Germany has been showing me adverts, that they have soccer/football games (not sure what league or if there is an extra cost associated as I don’t watch sports), so they are at least in some regions already there.


I know some people in Germany who are watching football on Amazon Prime Video. They get some Champions League games, but not all.


The HBOMax model of "get the theatrical release today" has been good to us so far. I really enjoyed Dune at home. But they keep rotating things in and out their catalog for some reason, and things that could be on there aren't.

I hear rumors alot of content that should be in their portfolio has streaming rights tied up in Hulu atm which doesnt help them.


What do you mean by "Apple never got it right"?


Yeah, Apple's content has been some of the best, particularly for such a new player. I was shocked at how they became an HBO equivalent in about two years.


A bunch of people in this thread share your opinion, but I consistently feel like they have the worst writers on average. Most of their shows have poison pills. Foundation had representations of math akin to the hacking from hackers(1). See didn't have many societal mechanics based around... Not seeing - this seemed especially silly with the warfare. Ted lasso and mythic quest are the best, but suffer from the "a little bit for everyone" curse. I like what they're going for, but I've been wondering if they can't hire writers from the same talent pools as the other services or if it just that they are new.

https://youtu.be/77j0afbaNOk


I guess I was able to give foundation a pass on that simply because of the fact that there is by definition no way to express an unknown branch of mathematics. The sin of hackers was that we knew at the time what mid 90s hacking offense looked like. We don't know what a new branch of math in the year 10,000 dependent on many branches ofath also unknown to us in the year 2020 looks like or what tools and processes mathematicians would use to help them manage that complexity. At that point is sort of give the writers/vfx carte blanche to make it at least look really sweet since accuracy is off the table anyway.


Foundation's problem is not with "math visuals", but that it's amazingly bad. Cliffhangers so dumb that made me vow never to pay for that show. Plotlines so weak I was wishing they'd just show more of the bland visuals in quiet. Pacing so fucked Asimov is going to rise up and bitchslap them.

(Of course in the books there is some mention of how the math looked. Just a fuckton of equations on a wall :D)


I cancelled my subscription shortly after they started getting rid of small-time films and started producing their own content; the two reasons were (1) I don't like businesses that can't cooperate with others and (2) their own content sucks and likely continues to suck to this day because their KPI is "how many people watched >1s of this?" and not "did we allow passionate, talented people to do work they are now proud of?".


I actually surprisingly enjoy their international content, Dark, Squid Game, Vikings, etc- but their American content does suck. It also comes off as too preachy/propaganda-ish. If I was actually the one paying for the account, I simply wouldn't subscribe.


I don't think Vikings is a Netflix show.


COVID should have helped them a lot: plenty of big, well made films suddenly needed a way to get in front of people that wasn't a movie theatre and they went with Netflix. (The Mitchells vs The Machines, for instance). Unfortunately, I think they've made two mistakes: what should be landmark content is just kind of muddled in there with pointless documentaries, shows that were immediately cancelled, and old second rate sitcoms; and they're way too aggressive with the Netflix branding, which has a poor reputation. It's over-saturated to the point that I can't imagine someone having a favourable impression when they see that extra Netflix logo on a piece of content. Ambivalent, at best. Just think if they used that kind of space for human curation, or to emphasize the excellent creators that are represented on their platform instead.


> "did we allow passionate, talented people to do work they are now proud of?".

That's what independent movie studios used to do like Miramax, It gave us Pulp Fiction, There Will Be Blood, No country for old men, and dozens of gems. Even Miramax failed in their quest.

Anyway, Netflix has produced solid movies regardless of what you think, well rated by critics and public. Not all or most of them, but no way worse than competitors studios.


I think Netflix is worth it for the comedy specials alone. Which was the only reason I ever got HBO back in the day. The original shows I watch are just icing on the cake. I think they would have more mindhsare if they released episodes weekly like Disney+ it's easy to forget how much you like a show when you only watch it one day a year.

Now I have HBO for south park and then my family got into some of the DC shows. I'm cancelling after this season. Then turning it back on when Titans or young justice comes back.

I want to make a script that suspends all my subscriptions every day, or cancels every month if youre not allowed to suspend. Then automatically signs me back up when I want to watch something. The main problem is you would need a reliable way to see every service's catalog without an active account.


You could sign up and immediately cancel. Your access lasts a month at that point. I think JustWatch has notifications or emails for when new seasons drop.

Also it's about the easiest task for a marketing team to email you to resubscribe when a new season of a show you watched comes out


I know atleast one service that will cancel your service the minute you cancel, but yes canceling immediately would be the plan for services that don't have a suspend option like netflix. [1]

As far as keeping up with the channels catalog, I meant I would want to build a discovery/search interface with data from every service so I could seamless signup/resume when I want to watch something.

[1] njpwworld.com which is the streaming service for a japanese pro wrestling company, will cancel your subscription the moment you cancel, no matter how much time you have already paid for. So if you sign up and immediately cancel you would be charged for a month, but never get access to it.


Most of the competitors can lean on a decades long backlog of hits that attract people. Netflix needs to build everything from scratch, and the cost of creating TV series is ridiculously high nowadays


> the cost of creating TV series is ridiculously high nowadays

I disagree with this claim. Their problem is that they enjoy losing money - a fetish if you will - in an attempt to draw and cater to a very particular and very young crowd. Its like they forgot that somewhat mature people over 35 actually do exist and are usually the ones paying for the service.

Its a pity because with all that talent and resources - they should be well above everyone else of they werent so damn focused on everything but good storytelling. I've seen stick figures on youtube tell better stories than Netflix.


Funny I just read an article that argued the opposite point. That streaming services, unlike broadcast TV, is catering to the older demographic more.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/entertainment/only-murders-in...


I'd love to see Netflix make knockoffs of popular back catalog shows that are just different enough to get away with it. 3-camera sitcoms with no-name actors should be pretty cheap to produce, and one of the shows could end up being ironically good, and one might be genuinely good.


Per the cost of content creation:

> Netflix spent approximately $17 billion on content in 2021 and ended the year with an estimated 222 million subscribers, a cost per subscriber of $76.60 (keep in mind that Netflix has other costs like sales, marketing, facilities, and labor just like any other company). Under the new subscription pricing model, 41% of the annualized price of the standard plan will go towards covering Netflix’s content costs, down from 47% before the price hike.


How many are subscribing to competitors to watch backlog? If they are, it's going to be short lived where folks subscribe for a month or two, hit the target backlogs in binge mode, and move along.

I have a few streaming services and rarely ever am I watching old content (the key stuff I've already consumed). I subscribe to services for their new content, not their old catalog. Maybe I'm the exception and not the norm of the typical subscriber.

I blame the lack of investment in target shows and focus on broad short lived and quickly canceled shows to the decline. I understand their business model catering to short attention spans but it puts me off a large swath of their content. Unless it's a movie or mini series with full conclusion, I tend to skip right over the content anymore no matter how interesting the story may seem to be. The last thing I want is to get drawn in and invested in a story only to have wasted my time and have the remainder canceled. Entertainment is part of it but many people want a beginning to end story of some sort. If you want to cater to short attention spans, good luck competing with YouTube, Facebook, and TikTok content.


Yeah, although if you're older and don't rewatch a lot of content the backlog doesn't really help a lot--especially if their older movie catalog is thin.


You way overestimate the importance of decades long backlog of hits.

New content gets infinitely more views.


I wonder what the percentage of old shows is in total watched minutes. I almost never watch shows or movies older than ~2 years or so. I'm sure that's different for kid's movies, but I think I'm not too much of an exception.


I am the opposite. Almost none of the new Netflix content appeals to me, but I watch re-runs of things like The Office and Seinfeld.


Ha ha, I'm a bit like you but I instead scour YouTube for even older shows like "Route 66" or the old "You Bet Your Life".


I'm definitely stuck in the 60's through 80's for television shows, and tend to watch my favorites over and over. But honestly, I've downloaded and stored most of the stuff I like because I'm terrified of it disappearing off streaming sources.


Interestingly, "You Bet Your Life" highlighted the fact that Groucho Marx got old, and it's weird in kind of the same way that Elvis getting old is weird.


Interesting in other social ways as well — Groucho was allowed to (literally) "cat-call" the attractive female guests on his show.

I suppose there was a sieve that their guests went through but it is still fascinating to see the parade of suburban Los-angelites: housewives, people with strong ethnic ties to the "old country" that had yet to be melted into the pot that was 1950's America. Who knew door to door salesman really was a typical working class occupation?


Oh yeah, all kinds of baggage attached to the last bits of the vaudeville Borscht Belt. That's also something that makes the transition from Allan Sherman to Weird Al Yankovic so jarring; they did the same act, but even aside from production values, Weird Al didn't bother dragging a previous audience along, and was willing to go anywhere.


Two years is about the length of time required for me to consider a show on Netflix. They kill a lot of shows after two seasons. I don't want to invest the time in a storyline that Netflix is going to axe without a natural conclusion.


That may be true but network TV regularly killed TV shows early in their run too--often in the first season even.


True but networks have a severe time slot constraint, in addition to the same production costs as Netflix, so it's a lot more understandable. Maybe my perception is off but Netflix seems even worse about killing new shows after 1-2 seasons, which is pretty ridiculous IMO.

Netflix seems overly reliant on small scale KPIs at the expense of the overall experience. Of course it's possible that they know exactly what they're doing and I'm just far away from their target consumer.


Wired had an article about this a year or so back [0] that said shows get more expensive after the first two seasons, so Netflix is inclined to kill them in favor of new shows. It also said viewership during that initial window also heavily influences the renewal process. Netflix has a lot more data than network television ever has and I think it leads them to be a bit overzealous with their decision making. Most shows I've really enjoyed have a weak first season as they find their footing.

[0] -- https://www.wired.co.uk/article/netflix-originals-cancelled-...


I don't know the numbers but Netflix probably kills shows faster.

>Of course it's possible that they know exactly what they're doing and I'm just far away from their target consumer.

Maybe. So long as a show doesn't get canceled at a completely unnatural point, I'm actually fine with just a couple seasons a lot of the time--especially with the historical network model of 20 episodes per season or so. And, conversely, by the time a show hits 4 or 5 seasons I'm done with it even if it's still pretty solid. I'm just tired of it.

There are a bunch of network shows I liked that stayed pretty good but I just stopped watching them at some point.


And that is where we learned not to trust TV shows in the beginning, but at least TV stations can only carry so many shows.

Firefly fan forever.


I'm this way _for Netflix_. HBO Max and Disney both have an awesome back-catalog of things to revisit, and I'm constantly finding myself watching an old 90s or 00s movie I had forgotten about on a whim, because it's there. The catalog is curated enough to focus on including good stuff, and HBO Max also has all of Batman: TAS.


That would indeed be very interesting, but back when I joined Netflix that was almost all they had, and I watched a lot of content. From time to time the special effects are bad enough that it breaks immersion (TOS), but for the most part if the movie/show was any good when it was written it is good today. So why not watch it?

I didn't get to see Buffy until it was on Netflix and I enjoyed it as much as I would have when it was new, I think. Granted the computers and cellphones are obviously dated (but if you think of it as a period show, it is fine) and it is a bit grating how everybody is always fully covered during/after sex, but the stories are as great as they were back then.


In recent years I'm too busy to focus on watching something new, so usually I'll put on something I've already seen a hundred times for background "watching". Currently rewatching Silicon Valley, before that was Saved By The Bell (ahh, nostalgia).


That’s why they don’t always create from scratch. Netflix originals doesn’t always mean they commissioned and produced a show/movie


As far as I can tell they've succeeded at becoming HBO.

I admire how the company has evolved over the years. It's cool that they distribute (and sometimes fund) movies made by excellent directors (Coens, Scorsese, Sorrentino). It does seem like a precarious business model: they have to keep picking or making winners but so far they're doing well.


> As far as I can tell they've succeeded at becoming HBO.

Have they? Have they really? As far as I can tell, nothing that Netflix has ever done in-house has ever come close to the best of the cable channels. Like, The Witcher is fine, but Game of Thrones it is not, neither in quality nor buzz/cultural significance. House of Cards is no Succession and Ozark is no Breaking Bad. Nothing they have could even come close to comparing to stuff like The Sopranos or The Wire in terms of cultural impact. The closest they've ever come, in my opinion, is probably with Making a Murderer, and they've spent the last couple of years churning out pale imitations that make Netflix look like "True Crime TV".

You're paraphrasing that quote from the Netflix CEO that goes like "We want to become HBO faster than HBO can become us". To me, HBO has won that race handily.


Discussing only on the merits of their content, and stipulating that this is neither here nor there with respect to Netflix's long-term prospects vs. HBO:

Breaking Bad isn't an HBO show. So I assume we're just asking, "has Netflix produced any world-class content". The answer to that is yes.

The jewel in their crown, their "Game of Thrones", is clearly Stranger Things. It's undeniably successful, each new season a cultural event. I'd put Stranger Things up against any HBO show for relevance and impact. (Perhaps not for artistic excellence; but, The Wire is the best show that's ever been on television, and it's far from the most watched).

Add to that Black Mirror, Bojack Horseman, Sex Ed, the annual Flanagan miniseries (Hill House, Bly Manor, Midnight Mass), Master of None, and Big Mouth.

They're doing about as well as any premium cable channel ever has. Doesn't, of course, mean you like their content! But I have about as much faith in Netflix coming up with a new prestige show than I do in HBO, most of whose recent stuff has left me pretty cold.


House of Cards was certainly a big thing at the time--for the first few seasons anyway. Queen's Gambit. GLOW and Russian Doll were quite good. I'm not a huge fan of The Crown but it's well done.

Honestly, Game of Thrones notwithstanding, I'm not sure that there's a lot on HBO I consider must see level content either although some is quite good.

I'd probably consider them about a wash for content.


I am still upset that they canned GLOW. I think the folks who decide to kill shows at Netflix severely underestimate market faith that they’ll keep a show around — as others have mentioned, there’s little more frustrating in the TV space than a show that leaves mysteries and plots hanging.

Considering they have a lot more flexibility than your average network, I’m surprised Netflix hasn’t made movies or mini-seasons to wrap up stories more common. That would be a huge improvement over what they’ve done with a lot of their original content that didn’t quite make the cut.


I think Stranger Things season 1 had a big buzz to it, but it feels like culturally, it completely dropped off after season 1. I’m sure the fans still like it, but I just don’t hear broad swaths of people talk about it anymore after that.

Game of Thrones had far more consistent cultural impact across all seasons (although they managed to nuke its legacy completely with the horrible last season).


They had to C&D a Chicago bar during S2 for completely rebranding around the show. There are still, 3 years after the last season, billboards around here (for random companies) making oblique references to the show. I think it's hard to deny the cultural impact the show had. Again: I'm not saying it's better than Game of Thrones (though: than the last season? probably.)


Plus Arcane which is in the top 20 tv shows of all time on IMBD.


First I’ve heard of Arcane. Is it actually good and worth watching if I have zero interest and know nothing about Lol, or is it really just rated highly because of anime/gaming fans?


It's among the best quality animation I've seen. Story is excellent in the beginning, though degrades to only decent towards the end as the video-game origins start showing through. Definitely worth watching, IMO.

(I also have no knowledge or interest in LoL.)


I've never played league and don't like most anime, just found the show and thought it was amazing.


The ideas aren't anything new but the execution is pretty good. Overall, a solid 8/10 I think.


If you enjoy animated shows, you don't need to enjoy league.


Netflix also won a pile of awards with The Crown, Orange is the New Black, Narcos, The Queen's Gambit, and others.


The Crown too, a good example of something that would be flagship HBO content.

Another thing that's easy to sleep on is that Netflix is much, much better connected to its audience than HBO is to its own. Netflix makes a lot of content that I couldn't be less interested in, but that's probably a strong positive indicator for them; I obsess over The Wire, Deadwood, and Community, and am thus pretty clearly a niche audience. For years, HBO did a good job of serving people like me, to their detriment.


> in terms of cultural impact. The closest they've ever come, in my opinion, is probably with Making a Murderer

Tiger King & Squid Game were both pretty impactful.


Nothing will have the sort of cultural impact you're talking about ever again. There's too much content, platforms and viewers are both fragmented, and viewing habits have radically changed.


> Netflix is on the very fast downward slope

I don't think the data is proving this out at all. Streaming will probably be a winner-take-most market and Netflix is on track to remain the leader.

We'll see what total 2021 subscriber growth was on Thursday, but estimates for Q4 are still around a net addition of 8 million subscribers. Compare this with Disney Plus growth in the same period of 2 million subscribers and I think the results are quite favorable.

If you pay attention to the details, such as in earnings calls, executives have reported that average subscriber watch time has only been increasing over the past few quarters. (Also see refs such as: https://backlinko.com/netflix-users#time-spent-with-netflix)

Keeping in mind that Covid has slowed production of content, in 2021 Netflix still managed to create the two most watched movies _ever_ on the platform (Red Notice, Don't Look Up). There are follow-up seasons launching for at least three of their strongest series, including Witcher (released tail end of 2021), Bridgerton, and Stranger Things. Plus the regular spikes of culturally relevant content such as Squid Games, Cheer, etc. which now happen fairly often.

> is destroying the business model that made them so appealing in the first place

I'm not sure how you are inferring that the business model has been destroyed here. It's certainly evolving over time but the promise has always been 'pay us a monthly subscription and we'll give you lots of things to watch'. I don't see how that has changed meaningfully or negatively.

Netflix has had naysayers at every stage of its growth. The landscape is always changing but I believe the critical idea is that Netflix leads in streaming and this has only strengthened over time. Total subscribers, revenue per user, and watch hours per account are all drifting up, and I fail to see how that represents a downward slope.


> Netflix still managed to create the two most watched movies _ever_ on the platform

By what metrics that they didn't slice just to be able to say this?


Having seen how you can massage numbers to say basically whatever you want time and again, that was my immediate thought

“Gremlins 2 is our most watched movie _ever_”*

* featuring a monster made entirely out of vegetables


Completely disagree. This is about power, they are raising the price simply because they can and people will stay on. They've got a long way to go to increase it before the elasticity changes.

The business model was never about being really underpriced, that was just a way to acquire customers.


How do you imagine they are "raising the price simply because they can" when their growth has slowed[1] and they have decided to no longer use debt in order to finance content?[2] I think those two facts taken together are a much more plausible explanation of why they are raising prices i.e because they have to. Further given the competitive head-winds they're now facing streaming space they are definitely not in position of price leadership.

[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-netflix-growth-slows-st...

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/19/business/netflix-earnings...


Afaik their revenue hasn't dropped its only slowed - meaning the strategy works since it boosts their margins.


Once The Office, Parks and Rec, and 30 Rock were removed from Netflix I haven't needed to resub since.

The only sub I permanently keep is YoutubePremium.


At least two of those three went to Peacock (NBC's Netflix-like), though, right (maybe all three, I never followed Parks and Rec)? I imagine they'll be looking for a new home soon enough.


After GE bought NBC, David Letterman joked that staff were encouraged to use Sylvania fluorescent bulbs as lightsabers. The top brass had little sense of humor then, and now that the studios own everything, I'm guessing much less now.


Only one I haven't seen in the South African catalogue is 30 Rock. I've been binging Parks and Rec. I blame the licencing agreements.


The office is still there in the Danish version


I think they are stumbling because they are trying to grow their catalog too fast. They have achieved a lot of this by taking on debt, not an unresonable amount, but I think they have too much money to burn and that means they aren’t always making smart or selective bets on content.

In the beginning of their foray into original content it felt like everything was good or at least interesting even if it wasn’t for me. Now it feels like they have a new original every week, but less that I find compelling or even watchable. A lot of it is lowest common denometer trash content. They risk being associated with that. I once associated them with high quality content even if it was low budget. Now I associate them with shows that feel like were concepted and written by a user acquisition algorithm.

At some point they decided Netflix is for every human on earth and to be for everyone you have to have content that can be digested by everyone, but to do that you make a pretty bland product without much taste.


> Netflix is on the very fast downward slope

I definitely don’t disagree with this, but here’s a question for people: if Netflix used their original content budget to instead procure existing content like they originally did, would this save them? This is obviously complicated with everyone creating their own streaming service to charge for their own content, but I’d certainly be happier with Netflix if I had a much better selection of other stuff and not “Netflix Originals”.


The problem with the old Netflix business model is that it's basically just "cable but better". This only worked because streaming rights were priced cheaper than cable carriage fees, which wasn't going to last. If Netflix had continued just licensing existing shows and movies, they'd be charging closer to cable prices because they aren't getting a deal on licensing cost anymore.


the problem is no one will sell to them.


This is the first time I read about a price increase and thought, “do I really use Netflix much?”

Right now I use prime more often and I bounce around with various add-one’s. Right now using Paramount Plus.

And the voice-overs on Netflix are down right annoying. I wish I could hide content with voice overs. The translations are terribly comedic as they try to match the mouth movements somewhat. It’s terrible. I’m tired of sifting through them.


Yeah, this last increase got me thinking too. I don't have anything on my "must watch" list from Netflix and I've got four other services I either subscribe to myself or are on someone else's plan.


The main take I get is that there isn't enough content to support all the streaming players in the marketplace.

In the next five years, we should expecting the number of streaming players to consolidate dramatically probably to the top 3, whoever they might be.


I really struggle finding a lot of stuff on Netflix, but frankly I do on most all of them. I know that Netflix actually has a much larger catalogue than I'm seeing when I login but it's impossible to get to in order to find anything. Amazon Prime video is even worse at discoverability.

The thing is that Netflix has established itself as a staple and most no one is going to cancel it unless they are just hurting. Netflix knows that and has hiked prices to show it has market power. It's like Amazon Prime, I honestly don't order enough from Amazon to justify that expense each year but when I do use it, it's convient.


Their mobile app was offering games the other day. I think they have some ideas how to diversify.

Also, they are global. Are HBO, Disney+, Paramount, Peacock the same? (I leave Hulu off as it seems to limp along? Not sure).


I'm not sure what you mean by Global, exactly, but Disney+ covers all of North and South America, Europe, Australia, all of S.E. Asia, India, New Zealand, and parts of Africa (including soon South Africa).


>Disney+ covers all of .. Europe..

nope, not available in my country and it is clear from their list too: https://help.disneyplus.com/csp?id=csp_article_content&sys_k...


I was including those countries where it has been announced it will be launching soon, so perhaps you are in one of those.


I’m pretty sure there is no such announcement, if you can point to it I’d appreciate it


Which country?


Disney+ is only available in Singapore and India, not sure why you're saying it's everywhere in South East Asia

https://www.bestvpnfordisneyplus.com/blogs/when-is-disney-pl...

https://help.disneyplus.com/csp?id=csp_article_content&sys_k...


>Disney+ is only available in Singapore and India, not sure why you're saying it's everywhere in South East Asia

That's incorrect.

>Disney Plus Malaysia officially launched on 1st June 2021, making streaming Disney+ movies and series more accessible and worth the purchase in Malaysia. After Indonesia and Singapore, Malaysia has become the third South East Asian country to get Disney+ as Disney Plus Hotstar in collaboration with Astro Malaysia.

It is also available in Thailand, but Philippines is only announced to be coming soon.


Well it's not available in Vietnam, which sucks because I need to catch up on the mandalorian.


torrent it?


Do they offer the same shows and movies in Europe as they do in the US though?


Does Netflix? Does anyone?


Wikipedia shows the vast, vast majority of Netflix original programming is available globally, with only 6 exceptions[1].

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Netflix_original_progr...


A few things:

First, Netflix' games have the same issue as Apple Arcade: the majority are ad-riddled trash. And Apple Arcade has App Store tie-in.

Second, the global numbers are likely to keep Netflix afloat (the same way they seem to for Facebook), but stateside numbers are abysmal compared to emerging services [0]: Netflix boasts 74.02 million subscribers in U.S. and Canada, and HBO Max has 45.2 million domestic (give or take 5 million). Within a year of launch, HBO Max has captured 2/3 the subscription size of Netflix! (Globally, it is barely doing double the numbers of Disney+.) The other competition has proven itself viable in a fraction of the time, and are using their built-in infrastructure to continue to compete. Netflix no longer has any differentiating factor, except that their US adult-targeted content is usually lower quality.

0. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/disney-netflix-and-other-str...


Wait, what Apple Arcade games have ads? Some of them have “formerly had in-app purchases” vibe, but no actual ads. I would guess Netflix’s stuff to be the same.


I'd have to look at my phone. I just know I installed some and got ads in the games, and it made me unsubscribe.


Apple Arcade games have neither ads nor in-app purchases, it's the whole point of the service.


There are various games that have an apple arcade version as well as an ad supported or separate paid app. It's stupidly confusing.


They definitely do not have ads (or in app purchases). Maybe you downloaded a non arcade game by mistake?


What Apple Arcade games have ads? The whole point of arcade is to provide ad-free games.


They are games designed for ads/microtransactions, but those parts cut out, usually leaving a grindy mess with no shortcuts (paid or otherwise).

I won't say every, but most games that aren't designed as pay-once are just elaborate dopamine slot machines, with no winners. The exceptions are few.


Apple Arcade games can’t have Ads or IAPs.


From my post:

> , but those parts cut out, usually leaving a grindy mess with no shortcuts (paid or otherwise).


An unrelated, highly competitive area with many entrenched players already. Not a great pick to bolster growth imo.


I actually like their content, but I do feel like they'll eventually fizzle out... the only chance they have to compete w/ Disney is join forces w/ Amazon, or just sell out to Disney.

Either of those would make me happy cause then it'd presumably be a bundled service... maybe $15 for hulu, netflix, and disney+. or slightly higher prime membership but much better content+interface. (Hopefully prime would move all their free stuff for prime members just to the netflix apps/ui/etc.


I can feel it happening. When Netflix was cheap, I kept it around and rented 2-3 movies a month. Now I have no interest in their new content and they don't have much old content anymore. It's now just too violent and sex obsessed for my tastes. They even continue to host "Riverdale", a show that tries to be hip and cool by rewriting Archie comics with plenty of statuatory rape. But it's not even presented as a bad thing. Just more "forbidden fruit."


It was Netflix's Chief Content Officer in 2013 who said 'The goal is to become HBO faster than HBO can become us.". I think this gent's now co CEO.


They definitely have challenges but Netflix does have three original shows at the moment that I am watching and they are earning my subscription with.


I saw this reality working for them in 2012 and I lost a lot of money not buying the discounted options. When were pitching about becoming HBO before HBO became them, and I thought, who the hell wants to be in HBO’s market?? Netflix at that time was considered externally as a tech play but internally they always knew they would go Hollywood.


Totally Agree. It is well known proverb in showbiz - you are as good as your last hit. In this business you have to constantly be at the top to stay at the same place.

There is no possibility to create a 'moat' in showbiz. Technology (distribution over internet) was once, but now that has become a commodity.


You need hit shows, but they don't have to be new. For example, Disney+ has enough back catalog that they could probably shut down production and coast for years.


You only need 1 show for me to subscribe to your streaming service. It worked the same way during the cable days, I paid for HBO to watch the Sopranos, and canceled it 5 minutes after the series finale.


Netflix content quality seems to be seasonal.

Like instead of “netflix is garbage its oversaturated” it seems like they greenlight stuff in batches where some quality content is released all around the same time

Just an observation


When the ATT spin off of Warner & HBO goes through and merges with Discovery it’s probably going to create long term power house.


Considering the type of content Discovery puts out and the old HBO bosses are all gone, I predict HBO quality takes a deep dive.


Would suggest long term puts? Not sure if the gaming pivot can be successful


I disagree. The future of Netflix is in harnessing shows made all over the world. They’ve had some success with Korean and Indian shows so far but it is a vast untapped market especially when their audience is global too. They’ve also set bars for production value which results in world class content. My only qualm with them is they seem to enforce a feminist agenda where every show has to have a “strong, independent” woman character that turns out to be extremely limiting.


US users may not be aware that we get local content too. Netflix has produced few decent italian movies and shows.

While we have abundance of platforms with fresh english content, that is not true for our own language.




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