Poker being one of my favorite hobbies (probably 300k hands played lifetime), it's wild how much variance matters. Like a 4BB/100 winrate (aka you win 4 big blinds every 100 hands) is very much an "I can be a professional" winrate.
You have a ~10% chance over 100k hands to be <0 dollars earned. Likewise, 10% of time time you'll make twice that. Poker is fascinating in that there are a ton of people who never actually hit the true law of big numbers hands and walk around thinking "I'll never be good enough to play at X level" or "I'm a poker god with big winnings" not knowing how good they really are.
Professional players do actually get in statistically significant sample sizes, but for amateur players, most don't get enough hands to really understand their skill level.
You have a ~10% chance over 100k hands to be <0 dollars earned. Likewise, 10% of time time you'll make twice that. Poker is fascinating in that there are a ton of people who never actually hit the true law of big numbers hands and walk around thinking "I'll never be good enough to play at X level" or "I'm a poker god with big winnings" not knowing how good they really are.
Professional players do actually get in statistically significant sample sizes, but for amateur players, most don't get enough hands to really understand their skill level.