> So frankly, I'm afraid that the belief that software engineers of any level are safe in the intelligence age is 100% cope. In 2025, I predict that there will be more layoffs because of this.
If this point could be clarified into a proposal that was easily testable with a yes/no answer, I would probably be willing to bet real money against it. Especially if the time frame is only until the end of 2025.
Not inconceivable. There are plenty of executives and mba types that are eating up the 'ai thing'... those guys will pay some consultants layoff their workforce and fucking die in the market when the consultants can't deliver.
Yeah, I agree. Let me take a stab at a statement that I'd bet against:
There will publicly-announced layoffs of 10 or more senior software engineers at a tech company sometime between now and December 31st, 2025. As part of the announcement of these layoffs, the company will state that the reason for the layoffs is the increasing use of LLMs replacing the work of these engineers.
I would bet 5k USD of my own money, maybe more, against the above occurring.
I hesitate to jump to the "I'm old and I've seen this all before" trope, but some of the points here feel a lot to me like "the blockchain will revolutionize everything" takes of the mid-2010s.
1) Does not describe a layoff, which is an active action the company has to take to release some number of current employees, and instead describes a recent policy of "not hiring." This is a passive action that could be undertaken for any number of reasons, including those that might not sound so great for the CEO to say (e.g. poor performance of the company);
2) Cites no sources other than the CEO himself, who has a history of questionable actions when talking to the press [0];
3) Specifically mentions at the end of the article that they are still hiring for engineering positions, which, you know, kind of refutes any sort of claim that AI is replacing engineers.
Though, this does make me realize a flaw in the language of my proposed bet, which is that any CEO who claims to be laying off engineers due to advancement of LLMs could be lying, and CEOs are in fact incentivized to scapegoat LLMs if the real reason would make the company look worse in the eyes of investors.
If this point could be clarified into a proposal that was easily testable with a yes/no answer, I would probably be willing to bet real money against it. Especially if the time frame is only until the end of 2025.