It's a language completion model, so it's not surprising at all that it struggles with logical inference. That's probably one of the reasons that instruction fine-tuning has such a dramatic effect in the performance of these models: they're finally given some of the underlying causal priors of the task domain.
Government jobs for instance (if you live in a country where that is an option). Medical profession would also be immune for some time but med school is too hard of a switch in terms of time.
What makes medical profession immune? I see this area as ripe for AI disruption. Analyzing symptoms and providing suggested medicine, tailoring dosage based on your individual vitals, analyzing data/imagery to diagnose you with diseases, all kinds of automation and speed ups for processing patient data, etc.
The same thing that has prevented self driving cars from taking the roads, i.e. that errors can be fatal. That and doctors are better unionised and won't easily let a machine practice medicine. There are all kinds of laws which necessitate the presence of a licensed medical professional in various steps of treatment. Software has neither of these cushions.
> If Nassim Nicholas Taleb is such a great investor, where is his hedge fund?
Taleb was a founding partner of Empirica Capital from 1999 until about 2006. He has also been active in Universa https://www.universa.net/, which is an active black swan fund selling long-vol strategies.
Coinbase's 2031 notes are rated Ba2 and are trading at about a 13% yield. As a point of comparison, Murphy Oil USA also has Ba2 2031 notes with comparable coupon that are trading only at about a 6% yield.
> BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated on Thursday a pledge to maintain monetary stimulus to support a fragile economy facing still weak inflation and reeling from the COVID downturn.
Anyone have any insight into Japan’s thinking on their monetary policy right now?
Take out that debt and Japan's debt to GDP ratio falls below the US's. Now factor in how Bank of Japan's active surppresion of interest rates occurs by buying debt. If Bank of Japan keeps the 10 year at 0.25% then the net government debt will continue it's free fall.
That figure includes the social security fund which is not included in the japanese figure. The social security fund is a liability, while the bank of Japan is fully a government asset.
I think it helps to start with what you think “getting out from under that” means. Why do you think it’s a problem for Japan have this much debt to GDP?
I think Japan, having failed to transition to an economy driven by internal consumption, is going to devalue its currency until the country is once again cost competitive as an exporter.
I would love to know. Most other central banks are raising rates and tightening policy, especially the US which probably affects the Japanese currency the most.
From my naive view, the BoJ can't keep depressing rates without leading to huge currency weakening and consequently the cost of imported goods can create a lot of inflation.
Inflation like that can quickly go out of control so imo it won't be long until they start seeing 10+% or higher like some other places.
Other central banks are other central banks. Their monetary policy does not affect Japan in the same ways the actions of the BoJ do.
Weakening currency is (indirectly) more or less the point. Lack of monetary expansion may very well not be the only reason for their economic stagnation, but it was a hindrance, so this turn is overall very good news; there's certainly a possibility they'll overdo it, but that remains to be seen.
Not super well informed on Japanese markets, but my understanding is that their bond markets are extremely dysfunctional (they even have had days where the BOJ is the only buyer on the market!) and this poses considerable financial risk in the system. This is the main factor why they keep their loose monetary policy as far as I can tell.
It has also rotated through various content (404 page, etc) which suggests someone has been fruitlessly trying to resolve the problem. Rebuilding their internal knowledge about "how to run this Twitter thing" is going to be an adventure for those left.
One thing I wondered about the whole story about Tesla engineers reviewing code was… how many of them and how much time would it take for them to understand organizationally who is needed / knows what to do for a site like Twitter?
Is “I think this codes is not optimally written.” Even useful after a week?
I once was a part of an acquisition where they quickly fired a lot of redundant people.
Including the entire mailroom, dock workers, facilities staff.
After a week they randomly called the tech support number and a group of us who had never been to the dock struggled to open the door for a weeks worth of deliveries.
Trivial in a small, no-nonsense company, probably absolutely non-trivial in a place like Twitter, where I expect they have a custom, byzantine devops/config management solution in place.
Have you tried a local hookah lounge or cigar bar? Many are under utilized during the day and may be fine with an arrangement like this as long as it doesn’t interfere with their core night hours.
Both distros build an "immutable system," but in very different ways. Keep in mind that both of these effortlessly deal with rollbacks.
Nix
With NixOS you declare your entire OS in a script, something along the lines of Ansible or Terraform. This can even go as far as configuring your user settings, with dotfiles, gsettings, or various other things (often the modules will expose settings in the native nix language and write out the yaml/toml/json/whatever else that is required). The idiomatic way to do this is to use the built-in NixOS configuration (under /etc/nixos) to set up system-level things: mounts, drivers, users, system-level packages (e.g. greetd+sway), and things that change rarely. You then use a project called home-manager to manage everything inside your user configuration (including applications you use), which itself uses nix. By separating it like this, I can sync my entire experience between my laptop and desktop with Git.
I am currently flighting using a separate "nix flake" for both, which allows you to pin versions of packages (with a lockfile). It also allows you to easily pull in other repositories. It hasn't really taken off yet, and the NUR (Nix User Repository, analogous to the amazing Arch User Repository) is still in infancy. I'd offer up my nix configs as an example, but I am currently in the "make it work" example. I have been yoinking several great ideas from this fantastic nix repo: https://github.com/ymatsiuk/nixos-config
The main challenge with Nix is that it doesn't have an FHS: there is no `/usr`, `/bin`, and what you would typically expect. The advantage here is that conflicting dependency versions are not a problem. The problem is that you need to either build any binaries yourself, or wrap them in an FHS helper.
Nix has a virtualenv system `nix develop` and it's very powerful, especially for teams.
Silverblue
Imagine having a 2-layer container. One contains all the system stuff and is read-only, the other contains your home directory (basically). You can swap out the bottom/system layer at any point to upgrade the system without affecting whatever the user has done. Silverblue "merely" does this efficiently. The problem is, how do you now install packages? Flatpak and Toolbox (or Distrobox if you prefer, which I do).
I have been genuinely amazed at how much stuff now works in Flatpak. You'll get 90% of what you need from there. Distrobox is how you'll approach everything else. It's simply a container with complete access to the host, that also behaves like the host (e.g. the home dir is mounted). It uses containers as a layer, not a sandbox. You do all your development in that and use the container's native package manager to install what you need (apt, dnf, whatever). I actually configured `distrobox enter` as the default shell in my terminal emulator, you should rarely need the host shell.
You can also install packages to the system, but this is strongly discouraged. The only packages I layered in were fish, starship, and a custom kernel. Updates take zero compute (unless you are using a custom kernel, but it's not much), are are applied by restarting. That's also a major disadvantage, if you layer in packages (i.e. by not using Flatpak or Distrobox) you need to reboot in order to use them - it could be argued that a bad practice should involve friction.
Silverblue has done the craziest thing I've ever seen an OS do: I rebased to its sibling distro Kinoite (KDE-based) in almost exactly the time it took to download the system layer, plus the time it took to reboot - so about 2 minutes.
dotfiles are your problem in Silverblue.
I'm currently using Nix, but I am carrying over Distrobox to it and using that instead of `nix develop`.
