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100%. I wish they offered a tiered plan.


Is this related to:

Multiple websites including DraftKings, Airbnb, FedEx, Delta and others appear to be experiencing issues.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-22/multiple-...


It’s funny how the title of this post keeps changing.


This story was submitted to HN over 10 years ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1257644


My framework is:

1) Identify hard problems — they are pivotal in unlocking the next level of progress. If unresolved, they all but ensure the status quo.

2) Their solution requires System 2 thinking, autopilot interruption, lack of distraction and imposition of both physical and time constraints.


How to identify and solve hard problems, which if left unresolved block progress.


Demise of the US dollar as the reserve currency.



FYI post was removed by mods


That pretty much going the opposite. The Euro is in real trouble, the pound can't because the UK economy is too small, and no one trust china with any power.


Why would the euro be in real trouble.

The only thing I see is Hungary and interference of China, but those things will usually resolve themselves.

Nobody trusts China = I agree.

I don't think anyone considers even the pound.

But, Trump made sure that a lot of people are starting to back away from the US. So I can't agree with the "going the opposite part".

If Trump would see another term i foresee huge troubles ahead, the US dollar would be the least of the troubles.

Not only US citizens distrust him. There is not a single ally that Trump hasn't stabbed in the back.

Eg. Trying to force Russia into the G7 is just one example.


> Why would the euro be in real trouble.

How about zero net economic growth for 20-25 years and no prospect of that trend changing?

Countries in the Eurzone who have seen negative real economic growth since 2007 or 2008:

Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain

The only growth economies over the past decade are smaller: Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Ireland

In 2008 Germany's GDP per capita hit $45,400. In 2019 it was $46,500. That's a massive real negative contraction given the debasement of the Euro and even a tiny bit of real inflation per year. That's the most potent economy in all of Europe and certainly in the Eurozone. The outcomes for France, Italy and Spain are that much worse over that span of time. Now Germany is facing a big hit to their advanced industrial foundations, as China and electric cars eat into the things they do particularly well. Germany will suffer de-industrialization (which they've held off longer than anyone else) and they have no replacement plan for that situation. Will Germany somehow come up with a massive, global tech economy to rival the US and China? There's no evidence of trend in the past decade. How does the Eurozone fare well without Germany moving it forward? It doesn't.

In the time the Eurozone has stagnated the US went from a GDP per capita of $48,300 to $65,000 and the US economy will again recover from the pandemic faster than Europe's economy, broadly, will; for the exact same reason it did with the great recession. That will add further weakness to the Euro by contrast.

Here's what that stagnation looks like: https://i.imgur.com/ep9kSOw.jpg

Besides that giant problem, Germany is going to again face enormous pressure around the way they inflate the value of the Euro at the expense of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece (making them not-as-competitive on exports). As with the non-recovery after the great recession, that problem will again be amplified and felt as these economies attempt to recover from the pandemic recession. They all know it's unfair that Germany gets to free-ride on a cheap currency (cheap for Germany, expensive for Italy & Co), producing the world's largest trade imbalance.

So the Eurozone is already on year 12-13 of negative growth. They were just beginning to inch above the great recession line of 2007-2008 in nominal terms. Now they've been reset by a minimum of five years, given how slow the major Eurozone economies have been growing. More likely, it's going to be a lost 20-25 years in total, stretching from 2007 to 2027 or 2032 approximately. And then at some point the next recession will hit, and on it goes.

The Euro is not going to do well accordingly.


To be honest, that's a pretty good answer and I will have to take some time to adjust my opinion with this information and study it. I realized this ( cfr. Why Germany benefits from the Euro), but I didn't realize the exact extend of it.

But there is no alternative for the current situation, breaking up the euro zone would be very bad.

Since I don't have a good response for now, I do wish to mention that the eurozone is still very "young".

And for Belgium. Please check out the numbers for Flemish part vs Wallonia. Wallonia is out little place similar to Greece... They are not improving and just want more money, but it's already going on for >50 years. It's kinda depressing.

( I'm from Belgium)

Ps. Do you have keybase? I would be interested in asynchronous discussions :)


Where is your data for GDP per capita from? I tried to look up the same on below links but the values and trends are very different from yours. Maybe it is measuring something different but I can't tell the difference.

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-per-capita https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-per-capita




Did you just post a link that support the GP's point while arguing against it? Jan 2008 is 12.8k and Jan 2021(forecast?) is 13.6k.


> has stagnated the US went from a GDP per capita of $48,300 to $65,000 .

Largely by adding trillions to the GDP via hedonic and imputed contributions.

GDP exists these days to show that government debt is below x% of GDP.


Everything you wrote is the opposite of true.

The Euro is a scam, with most EU members "sick men" and Germany unwilling to foot their national pensions and welfare schemes.

Allies say they hate Trump publicly, until they need a superpower to intervene, then they all call him Daddy.

US citizens love Trump ... just not the coastal elites and wannabe elites.

Who was the only leader with the common sense to halt air travel from China during a pandemic? While everybody else was virtue signalling, Trump made a command decision that is obviously correct to all in hindsight. The only man on earth the CCP fears is Trump. What does that tell you?

The following link variously calls Italy, Greece, Turkey, France and Portugal "sick men" Not a lot of countries left, is there?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sick_man_of_Europe


They don't say they hate Trump. Look at how Canada/Trudeau responded on "the situation in the US".

Everyone is being diplomatic about it, while Trump is acting like a baby without candy.

The "elites" have never received this much money because of tax benefits, it's nuts. While the entire country is divided.

Euro is also not a scam, it's just young for the most ambitious project in the world spanning an entire continent.

Ps. 10 years before that, the USSR fell without a single bullet, by the predecessor of EU when it was called the EEC.


I would argue America had far more to do with that especially as Europe was still picking up itself. It did a lot of the heavy lifting during the cold war, rebuilding germany and france. Then export culture and increase military spending to the point the USSR collapse because of unreast.


The only man on earth the CCP fears is Trump. What does that tell you?

Care to support this - with you know - evidence?


How prophetic. This was written just before the Great Recession of 2008.


My favorite is “literally” which really means “figuratively” these days.



How about planting more trees? Cannot think of a more efficient process of removing CO2


Hectares to tonnes, peat bogs might beat trees, but generally I'd think biology has the edge here.


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