One would have to control for all the layoffs, tarrifs, interest rates etc too.
On the other hand, people are working much harder today than 3 years ago (remember people not showing up to work and posting on TikTok about how little work did collecting paychecks from 2 different companies etc?)
Just saying it's very hard to look at a time series and determine an effect size, even though politicians/CEOs like to claim ownership for growths.
I’ve started experimenting with Quarto[0] for scientific/technical publishing on a personal website, and it’s been quite easy to use so far. I especially like that it has builtin support for LaTeX, markdown, code blocks and Jupyter notebooks. Only thing is I wish there were more templates ready to use.
He shamelessly advertised companies in his portfolio, whether it was always having a can of coke or candies on the table or stopping at a McDonald's in a documentary.
I refuse to believe that his lifestyle was what was on display.
He lived in the same house for 60 years, sure, but his private jets kept getting upgraded. Good for him, but I find the frugality theater very off putting.
I have read enough on Munger and Buffet that I don't think it was quite theater. I think they really believe/believed their own bullshit.
Like the way Munger would promote reading but Andrew Carnegie built 2500 libraries. They would view building libraries as an opportunity cost and waste of capital.
"Ah shucks, I wish people like me would pay a lot more in taxes" but of course these guys didn't spend a dime on actual lobbying to make that happen. Again, that would be seen as a giant opportunity cost and waste of capital. They wouldn't want to go outside their "circle of competence" into something like politics or policy. How convenient.
I think the only way to have this image of a saintly grandpa when actually an absolute cut throat , money obsessed, richest person of all time is to believe your own bullshit.
I don't know the details, but large personal residences tax your brain (as well as your bank account).
Instead of spending hours of his life negotiating RE purchases, maintaining his properties, cutting checks to plumbers, doing renovations, etc. (that I hear many other billionaires do), he was practical with his (luxury) purchases focusing on time saving (living near work, fast food, private jet) and the experience (luxury vacation).
If you don't appreciate that, I think you're missing the point of his frugality.
You should read one of his many biographies. Every one of them has him drinking like 6 cherry cokes a day, and eating ham sandwiches, mcdonalds, and steak nonstop.
You don't have to believe anything, but the many people who spent the most time with him have reported on this extensively.
I find it hard to see an upper bound to demand for compute/power.
If models/hardware become 1000X more efficient/cheaper/smaller, people will be running 1,000,000X more jobs with even bigger models on even more intensive tasks, running them for even longer, etc.
We haven't even scratched the surface for video, world models and robotics.
When the markets panicked during the first DeepSeek episode, I just bought more Nvidia for this very reason. NVidia may very well tank sooner or later, but I'm sure it won't be because demand for compute tanked due to more efficient models. A more plausible scenario would be a competitor dethroning NVidia, kinda like Google's recent surge indicated.
No specific reason. Mainly because he was one of the most productive and collaborative mathematicians of all time. We actually considered "Poisson" at some point but ended up going with Erdos.
"His decision seems to have been based less on his famous scientific thinking and more on a very personal feeling. He wanted to retain his autonomy until the end and to shape his own end."
So you could say it was more system 1 thinking rather than system 2.
I would've expected the opposite given our survival instincts.
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