Now that I think about it USPS is the one place I get blocked. Still, it seems like people facing an age gate should be able to circumvent it without much hassle on a regular basis.
> EDIT: And fwiw, "Why would you continue doing business in Italy?" is not what is being proposed. They are threatening to block 55 million people from ~20% of the world wide web.
There is no mention of blocking people in Italy from using sites protected by Cloudflare. From the tweet:
> we are considering the following actions: 1) discontinuing the millions of dollars in pro bono cyber security services we are providing the upcoming Milano-Cortina Olympics; 2) discontinuing Cloudflare’s Free cyber security services for any Italy-based users; 3) removing all servers from Italian cities; and 4) terminating all plans to build an Italian Cloudflare office or make any investments in the country.
The American Medical Association has long lobbied to reduce the number of medical schools, reduce the number of positions for new doctors, and limit what tasks nurse practitioners can do [1].
Of the predictions I read, I found that the author engages in pretty heavy handed rules lawyering in order to make their predictions accurate.
For example, the author takes the stance that current self driving cars (Waymo, Zoox) do not count as self driving. The justification being that a human operator is involved some small fraction of the time.
By law, Waymo must report disengagements in California. In 2024, Waymo had ~10 thousand miles driven per disengagement, Zoox had ~28 thousand miles driven per disengagement [1]. I would say that this rate of human intervention qualifies as self driving.
On the contrary, it’s the companies doing the lawyering. A disengagement is when the vehicle reverts fully back to manual control. Tele-operation does not count as a disengagement, and the frequency of tele-operation intervention is a closely guarded industry secret.
Oh interesting, I had figured tele-operation would count as a disengagements.
Looking into reports you mentioned in a child comment, CNN reports Cruise needed human assistance every ~5 miles [1]. And I certainly wouldn't call a system that needs assistance every ~5-10 minutes Level 4 self driving.
Subjectively, it appeared Waymo was significantly better than Cruise in 2023 but without data it's hard know what that means in terms of human intervention.
If Waymo needed human assistance every 10-20 minutes, I would agree that it also doesn't qualify as Level 4 autonomous.
There’s been reporting on this in several mainstream publications that was accurate as far as the systems I worked with. Unfortunately I don’t want to dox myself on here, so unsatisfyingly the best I can offer is “trust me bro”.
The tele-operation is also kinda vague because as I understand it, with Waymo at least, they are not turning a steering wheel and pushing pedals at HQ, they are saying "Pull over here" etc.
As somebody who has been reading them since the first year, I think you have it wrong. That self-driving prediction was always about Level 5 autonomy. What's changed between now and then is that we've basically stopped talking about that, instead accepting intervention-as-a-service companies as self driving.
The author quotes that their predictions are for Level 4 autonomy:
> The definition, or common understanding, of what self driving cars really means has changed since my post on predictions eight years ago. At that time self driving cars meant that the cars would drive themselves to wherever they were told to go with no further human control inputs. It was implicit that it meant level 4 driving. Note that there is also a higher level of autonomy, level 5, that is defined.
Well, ans we're talking about within very specific locales.
Honestly, Brooks--who has been presented and self-presented as something of a skeptic with respect to autonomous self-driving--looks like something of an optimist at this point. (In the sense that your kid won't need to learn to drive.)
Predicting well absent lawyering is really hard! If someone else wants to try I warmly recommend starting with e.g. the ACX 2026 prediction contest: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2026/
> Predicting well absent lawyering is really hard!
The author engages in rules lawyering of the evaluation of the predictions. The original predictions are clear.
Another example of this is the author's prediction that no robot will be able to navigate around the clutter in a US home, "What is easy for humans is still very, very hard for robots."
The author evaluated this prediction as not being met, "...I don't count as home robots small four legged robots that flail their legs quickly to beat gravity, and are therefore unsafe to be around children, and that can't do anything at all with their form factor besides scramble".
The author added constraints not in the original prediction (safe around children, must include a form factor able to preform an action, ...) then evaluated the prediction as accurate because no home robot met the original constraint + the new constraints.
Those robots are not "navigating AROUND the clutter", there are no consumer-deployed object recognition physics models that let a robot say "that's a ball that will roll, that's a shirt that will tangle, that's a sheet of paper that may slip", they're just charging chaotically through it. If you allow skittering robots, do you exclude a 90s RC car with the trigger taped down?
I would agree with you if the author wrote, "I don't count as home robots small four legged robots as they don't navigate around clutter, they just go over it" but the author didn't write that.
The author quoted two constraints (safe around children, must include a form factor able to preform an action) not specified.
The author projected that a lab demo of capabilities would not occur. I don't see safety for children as necessary for a lab demo.
I read the prediction and I see it meaning "I don't think we'll have tech for useful house robots in the average American Family Home"
The natural interpretation (for me!) was predicated on navigation - implying consideration and appropriate response to the clutter. Not merely ignoring it by being robust to the problems it engenders to movement/balance/etc.
> 15-20% of the world is estimated to have a disability. So Stanford population is high, but approximately double the average of a random global population sample.
Stanford is not a random sample of the global population. Most notably, Stanford undergraduates are young, primarily between 18-24[1]. 8.7% of people in the US from ages 18-29 have a disability [2].
First, the site generator is MIT licensed but I don't see a link to the license. If someone forks this generator, would they be in compliance with MIT license requirements?
Second, the images linked in this site are quite nice. I can imagine someone choosing to use some of them as is. Are they yours to share?
Third, it appears that you are targeting non-developers. I would think about how to make it as easy as possible to customize. Decisions like putting images in "priv/output/images" seems a bit confusing.
Third: Yeah that's the challenge I'm working on at the moment.
Thanks for the feed back.
I do plan on cleaning up the repo so that you are not starting with the example and also plan on making a small tutorial video to show how much effort it takes to setup.
The baseline for watches is changing the battery every 3-5 YEARS! This modernity of charging watches daily is a pox on humanity brought on by Apple.
Pebble (and Fitbit, and others) were always in the "week-plus" timeframe for charging. Meeting the "minimum bar" of 14-17 days battery life (of the OG pebbles) is successful. Shooting for "30 days" is definitively best-in-class performance for smart-watches!
> I don't see why you are defining success as 30 days of battery life when the baseline is charging your watch every day.
Up until about 10 years ago, no one would have considered the baseline to be charging your watch every day. Even today, most watches/wrist-worn step counters don't require daily charging.
I wouldn't define 30 days as success, but I do want to start out at 2+ weeks. Battery life gets worse over time, and watches aren't meant to last for just a little while. I don't want to spend hundreds of dollars on something that will require charging more than once a week within a year or two.
Appreciate the links, but I'm guessing these are estimates with AOD disabled? That's another benefit of the Pebble (AOD doesn't reduce battery life).
Some examples: Imgur loads but does not display any content. USPS's website does not load.
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