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This is the general rule, but not for ones the size of OpenAI. There’s always a secondary market for prominent enough companies.

Dont all private companies require approval for secondary sales, which I assume are not ever approved?

They do, but you sell forward contracts instead. This is perfectly legal, and the approach I've seen. There are a few companies, and even funds that will engage in this, in an effort to attain future upside.

Its pretty common, Ive personally done this.

Typically. I’d be shocked if OpenAI let employees sell their options like this without requiring approval

They don't but you effectively do it under the table

Do they sell at full value?

Whatever they sell them for is the value.

How do you define value without an IPO?

> And we did not even see what was in the case.

You know there are two more episodes, right? That seems like an obvious finale reveal.


They were not even in hurry. If that was important for the viewers it should be even more important to the characters. If this was not important and they do not care then the whole premise of traumatic Vecna memory was useless pile of utter garbage because memory cannot be traumatic and not important. Ever had trauma doing grocerries? Or riding a cab? And then they should not be able to escape. Because he would get them before that.

They just invent stuff that they have no idea how to explain later. Just like Lost.


My parents’ new TV adds a Snapchat like filter to everything. Made Glenn Close look young instead of the old woman she’s supposed to be in Knives Out.

Turning it off was shocking. So much better. And it was buried several levels deep in a weirdly named setting.


> The first part works because otherwise reusable rockets wouldn't have been invented…

Maybe, maybe not. We often see technology reach a threshold that allows for sudden progress, like Newton and Leibniz both coming up with calculus at around the same time (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leibniz%E2%80%93Newton_calculu...), or Darwin rushing to publish On The Origin of Species because someone else had figured out the same thing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Russel_Wallace).

SpaceX benefited immensely from massive improvements in computing power, sensors, etc.


It did, and it needed a direction to be pushed towards. Are you familiar with the great man theory of history [0]? It is no different here (well, historians these days use a blend of great man theory and historical materialism as you're stating in your example, as no one theory explains the majority of historical changes).

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_man_theory


How does one distinguish between a great man and a lucky one?

Historians don't care about such a distinction, of course. Was Genghis Khan lucky when he conquered half the world?

I mean, read his Wiki entry, and you’ll discover he got a really nice coat as a wedding present, which he regifted to a powerful patron.

You can decide if that’s a touch of luck. I’m sure he had a few near misses in combat with an element of luck, too.


That's exactly what I mean by my point, it's not all luck, of course it was his skill in uniting the tribes which none had done before.

It is not all luck, correct.

Some of it is luck. Often quite a bit.


> Most Americans earn a top 1% income.

1% of Americans earn a top 1% income. They weren't being asked "do you make more than an amputee kid in Gaza?"

> It's possible 19% of survey takers were in the top 1%…

There's a whole field of math devoted to preventing this. Polling works quite well, all things considered.


Global 1% net income is $34k, it's likely that more than 19% of those who were polled make that since the median net annual income in the US is ~$50k.

Again:

> They weren't being asked "do you make more than an amputee kid in Gaza?"

Context matters.


What were they asked then?

They will have been asked something like "what income level do you believe places someone in the top 1% of American earners?" or "what percentile of American earners do you believe yourself to be in?"

Often posed as a multiple choice question.


So you're just guessing? I'd say if 19% said they believed they were in the top 1%, it was probably not specified as specifically American.

Sounds like you're guessing.

I'm not; this sort of thing is quite well documented.

https://phys.org/news/2024-09-people-underestimate-income.ht...

> Barnabas Szaszi and colleagues conducted four studies to explore how well people understand the wealth held by others. In one study, 990 US residents recruited online were asked to estimate the minimum annual household income thresholds of various percentiles of American earners.


That study shows that people are worse at estimating income brackets as the brackets increasingly become outliers. Look at how the variance in estimations increases sharply at higher brackets. That they tend to underestimate the outlier brackets doesn't indicate that 19% of Americans think they're in the top 1%...

Because luck plays a very significant role.

Attributing something to luck sounds like a lazy cop out, sorry. We just had an article on the front page yesterday about “increasing your luck”.

If you need to be lucky in meeting the right people, you can increase your chances by spending your evenings in the your nearest financial district watering hole. We’ve easily established luck can be controlled for, which puts us back into skill territory.

What specifically must one luck out on? Have you tried?


Exactly, as a multimillion lottery winner, it upsets me so much when people say I won because of luck.

I played every single day, and I played at different locations. I also made sure I performed my pre-ticket rituals which I learned from other lottery winners. Other people could have done the same. It’s absolutely a skill issue.


You picked the lottery you played, on which day, with what buyin, where you bought the tickets from. Did you not?

> Attributing something to luck sounds like a lazy cop out, sorry.

Everyone one of us here has an unbroken line of lucky (lucky enough!) ancestors stretching back a billion years or so. Pretending it's not a thing is silly.

When you're born matters. Where you're born matters. Who you encounter matters. etc. etc. etc.

> What specifically must one luck out on? Have you tried?

I think perhaps we have different definitions of luck.


No, I think we have a similar definition of luck, but I think you’ve succumbed to a defeatist attitude. You have to be pretty unlucky to be permanently locked out of becoming a CEO, and if you’re dealt those cards, moaning about it on an online forum would be way down in your list of priorities.

> You have to be pretty unlucky to be permanently locked out of becoming a CEO…

Sure, but that's not what's being asserted. I am not "permanently locked out" of megacorp CEO roles; I'm just vanishingly unlikely to get one.

There are lots of people who have enough singing/dancing skill to be a mega popstar like Taylor Swift. There just aren't enough slots.

Could I become the next Steve Jobs? Maybe! I'd have to get really lucky.


Then why were you bringing up conditions of ones birth?

Vanishingly unlikely to get one if you try, or vanishingly unlikely to get one if you sit on your ass all day?

I assume you’re talking about the former and yet I don’t think you’ve thought this through. I think you’ve blindly attributed to luck what actually requires time, perseverance, grit, lack of morality. The only way to figure that out is for you to offer up your understanding of what one must luck out on?


> Then why were you bringing up conditions of ones birth?

Because they're a form of luck?

If you're born in the developed world, that's luck. If you're born to supportive parents, that's luck. If you're Steve Jobs and you wind up high school buddies with Woz in Mountain View, CA, that's luck. White? Luck. Male? Luck. Healthy? Luck. A light touching of psychopathy? Luck!

> Vanishingly unlikely to get one if you try, or vanishingly unlikely to get one if you sit on your ass all day?

Both.

> I think you’ve blindly attributed to luck what actually requires time, perseverance, grit, lack of morality.

There are many, many people who devote time, perserverance, and grit to their endeavours without becoming a "hugely expensive" CEO. Hence, luck. Is it the only thing? No. Is it a thing? Yes, absolutely.


None of what you’ve mentioned is a requirement to become a “hugely expensive” CEO. If you’re born into conditions which stop you from becoming self reliant, that’s a different story but we covered that.

Those people who devote time - do they devote time to becoming a hugely expensive CEO or just some “endeavours”?

I think we’re fundamentally disagreeing on whether or not lack of luck can be adequately compensated for by exerting more effort. I have not yet heard of a compelling argument for why that’s not the case.


> None of what you’ve mentioned is a requirement to become a “hugely expensive” CEO.

Again, no one said they're requirements. Just significant factors. You don't have to be white, you don't have to be male, you don't have to be from the developed world… but you do have to have some substantially lucky breaks somewhere.

A quadriplegic orphan of the Gaza War might become the next Elon Musk. But the odds are stacked heavily against them.


God save us from grindset influencers who pedal all this ‘if you didn’t succeed it was down to you not trying hard enough’ m’larky. In some respects I appreciate the call to taking agency but the fact it results in people being unable to acknowledge the sheer extent of external factors in the world is crazy.

It comes from being young and naive.

No one said anything about megacorps though, just CEOs.

No one except the article we're all (theoretically) discussing, titled "CEOs are hugely expensive", citing "the boards of BAE Systems, AstraZeneca, Glencore, Flutter Entertainment and the London Stock Exchange" as examples in the introductory paragraph.

Now read the rest of the article. It talks about CEOs in general, not just megacorp ones, even if it does use megacorp CEOs in the intro. It is asking a general question of whether the role of a CEO should be automated. Articles often start with a hook that is related but does not wholly encompass the entirety of the point of the article.

> Now read the rest of the article.

I did.

> It talks about CEOs in general, not just megacorp ones, even if it does use megacorp CEOs in the intro.

This does not accurately describe the article.


Well if we're deriving different conclusions from the same article, then there is probably not much else to talk about.

That and having enough millions in the first place to meet with the right people and get/buy a position helps.

As the Rick & Morty quote goes, "that just sounds like luck with extra steps".

To Elon's credit he didn't start out with millions

Just a well off white politician as a father during South African apartheid.

In Errol Musk's political career, he was a city councillor and member of an opposition party. So, while true, this is minor league. His business ventures appear to be more relevant to his wealth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Errol_Musk#Career


But the dice gets rolled for everyone and clearly success isn’t randomly distributed.

So what does that tell you?

It must be luck plus something else.


> It must be luck plus something else.

That is why I said “significant role”, not “the only requirement”, yes.


In science we have the idea of background noise - a random signal that is always there is random fashion.

And what is typically done is you ignore it. It’s always there, it’s random, and it applies to all samples.

Same with luck and success. You can control luck, so you focus on what’s left.


[flagged]


Just because luck plays a part in everything does not make it moot.

Set up two identical agents in a game with rules guaranteeing a winner, and you will end up with one loser being equal to the winner.

I agree that CEO positions in aggregate are likely generally filled by people better at "CEOing", but there is nothing ruling out "losers" who were equally skilled or even better that just didn't make it due to luck or any of the innumerable factors playing into life.


Aww, you did the meme! https://lol.i.trollyou.com/

Do you really not think this happens outside China?

I’ve lived in the US and Australia. Both have the exact same phenomenon.


Plenty of poor people drive, and the tolls aren't really adjusted for income.

> Audiobook are mouth speed but have no pause.

You can’t pause your audiobooks?


An actual human employee at Twitter vouching for someone’s existence seems far more reputable than being able to purchase a Visa gift card in a convenience store.

Verification was “this account is who it says it is”. Not “this account has $10 to spare”.


I remember it being just a "good boy" badge.

People routinely had their checkmark removed when they said something controversial.


> People routinely had their checkmark removed when they said something controversial.

It was not indeed happening "routinely".

https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/15/16658600/twitter-verific...


Still something that defeats the purpose, no?

A verification badge should be something that says "this person indeed is who they claim to be" not "they can spend a couple of bucks a month" nor "we like him enough to give them a checkmark". Both are extremely unhelpful. The latter probably even more unhelpful since it is very subjective.


Verification came with moderation tweaks for high-profile accounts to combat things like brigading via mass abuse reports. That's why consistently bad behavior tended to lose the check.

Probably should've been two different flags, but it wasn't.


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