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Agreed, words matter. There are a lot of smart people out there, and the writer of this site makes me skeptical when he/she exaggerates, omits or spins info. Tell us all the facts at least, so we can trust you.

I actually find it exceedingly boring if someone doesn't push the envelope with facts a little bit. Defending something colored well within the lines is just sleep inducing. Make a statement that is just barely defensible, and now we are talking, and it gets interesting.

Moved a year ago from California to northern Michigan. To add to this list, specifically regarding "Do NOT get wet and cold":

o If you're walking out in the cold, have many different ways to keep your feet and your hands warm, because usually, you'll have a good-enough coat and winter-pants that'll keep your core relatively warm, but it's the very ends of your extremities that get cold (just got a small amount of frost bite on my toes the other day).

o On top of really thick gloves and socks, can buy some battery-heated versions of both. These aren't just gimmicks, they work wonders! As do the standard handwarmers and toewarmers

o Get real winter boots, these are water proof and insulated, so your feet won't get wet, and will resist the cold for longer (didn't learn this one until recently. Yeah, once your shoes get wet enough to bleed into your socks, you feet start to freeze).

o For your head and neck, carry one of those head and neck covers with you in your coat pocket (called a balaclava). Because sometimes you misread the weather and suddenly you've got a 5 degree wind chill streaming over your neck and face.

o etc:)

And, actually, walking in the snow is really nice (so clean and pure), which is why a lot of us here do actually go outside.


A big thing I would add is to strongly consider how much you'll be moving, especially when it comes to footwear.

Boots that are rated to -40 during light activity can leave you with cold toes if you're standing still in -10 for an hour.

Activity levels also dictate how you layer and how easily you need to dump heat. If you're hiking, snowshoeing, XC skiing, you want some layers with zips so you can quickly let heat out.


> thick gloves

Gloves are not for severe cold. They are for dexterity during limited exposure time - as no gloves can keep your fingers warm for very long no matter how well-made they are.

Look for mittens or "choppers" as we called them back in the day if you are going to be outside for a long period of time. These are outer shells (leather or gore-tex/etc.) with various types of removable liners. You basically layer your hands inside them. For folks outside all day you usually would have a few liners on hand to replace when they get wet.

Add a heat pack (iron oxide) to these on those super cold days and you'll be pretty much set.


Good reminder. Actually, I’m there with you, already have mittens, and they are warmer than my gloves (although, my fingers still get cold, even in them).

But also, kind of don’t like how they make me look like a teenager, and I already look young for my age, don’t need any help in this department:) have been trying to find a glove-solution that is still warm. Have just tried some heated gloves, they seem pretty good, but early still


> have been trying to find a glove-solution that is still warm.

Good luck! Let me know if you find anything, I certainly tried for a few years and now have an absurdly large glove collection to last me a lifetime.

I've found when I need to use gloves I just burn a dollar on an iron oxide heating packet - and it mostly works until it gets to about 10 degrees or lower. After that you really need to wear serious winter gear if you're going to be out for more than an hour or so, at least for me.

I have been wanting to try some of the battery heated gloves but I'm still a little suspect of them. When I find a pair I like on sale I plan on trying them out. I tend to lose things, so we will see if it actually is a net savings vs. burning up a few dozen of the disposable heating packs a year. I certainly don't like the waste generated either way and it seems a bit silly.


Thanks! And in terms of heated glove/mitten tech, have a pair of heated mittens already, the Thxtoms brand (although, they're discontinued): https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CDLN91CN

The tech definitely works, and these were, at the time, just another relatively-cheap, but decently-well reviewed pair. Yeah in fact, on their own, they aren't that thick or durable, but when the heat is turned on, they are plenty warm. Seems like almost any decent pair of heated mittens/gloves would work well.

For me at least, the iron-oxide heat-packs work pretty well too, but they typically don't heat the fingers too well, so when its really cold, the main parts of my hands are warm, but my fingers aren't. It's not that bad, and it's easy to heat up the fingers by curling them around the heat pack, but with a heated glove, the heat typically reaches the fingers, so you don't really have to do anything and can just completely forget about your hands - but yeah, if I was loosing gloves often, maybe heated gloves would be a net waste compared to heat packs:)

Recently, bought a pair of heated liners to go under an oversized pair of gloves - I have Leki ski-gloves that directly attach to the ski poles, and they don't currently have a heater option, so am trying this instead. This are the heated liners: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B082XXKXCP

They're nothing special, but by my initial tests, they seem pretty warm under my gloves. Will know more tomorrow:)


https://www.kinco.com/5210-l

I wear these walking the dog down to -20F or so. They're warm enough with the tops flipped up, and you can quickly flip them down for a little dexterity to tie a poop bag. Not gonna say your fingers won't get cold while you're doing it, but it's the best approach I've found short of multiple pairs of gloves, which is just a pain for a quick dog walk.


This guy has mastered the art of dressing for winter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XG3WfCWU9D0


A buff works pretty well instead of a balaclava and can serve the same purpose and more. Essentially just a tube of stretchy fabric that you can wear around your neck and pull up into a close enough approximation of a balaclava.


Also remember to watch your sweat levels. As soon as you start sweating, start shedding layers to bring your core temp down.


> battery-heated versions

all the ones I've seen when researching were lithium-ion from sketchy-looking brands, any brands you recommend?


Any sold at a physical ski shop. You will make a face at the price. You will reconsider the sketchy ones for their price. But the ski shop ones will last significantly longer.


Yeah, am sure these the cheap brands don’t have good batteries. But, have found after a year of using them, they are usually good enough. Unless you’re doing something like ice fishing, almost all outdoor activities take about 1-4 hours, and they last about 4-5 hours on a mix of high/medium. Have only run out a couple of times, and that’s because I was lazy and didn’t charge them before going out. Also, the battery type used for almost all these heated devices is the same, 7.4 volts. Have bought a couple pairs of replacements that also work pretty well (and have bought ones with larger storage capacities as well as smaller ones for skiing as I don’t want the extra bulk). The brand of heated socks I’ve tried are the ones recommended online, Snow Deer and Dr Warm.

Snow Deer have better electronics: The main button requires you to hold it down in order to turn it off and on. This is big deal because it’s easy to accidentally press the button when you’re out and about. But, unlike what all the review say, I find them uncomfortable. They have a piece of wiring that runs along the top of the foot that digs in (and have tried two different pairs, same thing. Have returned them both).

Dr. Warm is more comfortable (not perfect, but for hiking, good enough). But the problem is the main button doesn’t require a long press to turn them off, so sometimes, you’ll find they’ve turned off by accident (or more importantly, turned on and you’ve drained the battery). Still, comfort is more important, and there are ways to get around the button issue, so these are the ones I use daily - will keep the batteries unplugged until needed.

And like someone else said, if all else fails, get a nicer brand, one that is $200+.


> socks

darn tough socks. I have these: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B000XG34G8

your feet will be warm and dry, even when exercising, wet, etc.

They work super hot summer and cold winter.


Get boots a size too big to wear multiple layers of wool socks.


Any recommendations about the boots? Or what to check for?


Baffin make some of the best cold weather boots. We use them in Antarctica, though you probably don't want the chonky -70C rated ones. I have some lighter boots rated for about -40 and they're great. Really any good gore tex mid-ankle hiking boot is probably fine. Whether you need cold rated boots is going to depend on where you're walking.

Your main concern is to stay dry and minimize snow incursion. Either wear ski pants that act as gaiters, use gaiters or use boots and socks that are high enough that you won't get snow down the sides.

If you buy boots with insulation, try not to compress it. Otherwise be aware that if you don't keep moving, your boots will eventually cool to ambient and it's pretty hard to get that temperature back up.

Check grip? Hard to test but warm doesn't necessarily mean any good on slick ice. Spikes work well if you're going on a hike and there's a lot of packed snow mixed with ice.

Don't forget good socks. Doesn't need to be anything fancy, but wool is by far the best material (not necessarily merino as it tends to be too thin). You may need to size up because of the extra padding.

Also luxury, but fan assisted boot drying/warming stations are great. They make quite a big difference if you go out a lot because moisture build-up takes ages to dry otherwise.


The key word you’re looking for is a "pac boot" depending on where you live you can get insulated, but honestly unless your live somewhere super cold and snowy, you probably don't need insulation. if you put on warm socks, keep snow out of them, are moving around, and aren't outside for hours on end you'll probably be fine even in really cold weather.


Ryan Tilley (an AMGA-certified mountain guide) has a long and detailed guide of different sorts of boots and what to look for in each type[1].

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFKC0BynjxY


I prefer military boots, they have no branding and are typically designed and tested for decent longevity and comfort. My current ones are Bundeswehr surplus, I believe Meindl produced them. They cost about 60 euros or so, never been used.

Pick a size larger than you would usually do, unless they're explicitly designed as winter boots. In cold weather you'll want wool socks as well as regular socks and that requires some extra space.


You can certainly get cheap Bundeswehr surplus boots, but you should know that soldiers don’t typically choose those if given a choice.

When given a choice, soldiers will tend to choose something like Salomon Toundra.


Yeah, I know, I've been in the military, but my requirements are much simpler. I'm not going to walk fifty to seventy kilometers per day in them, and I also don't want to spend as much time taking care of my boots as they do. If I happen to walk through a bog too many and the stench gets permanent it feels better to get a replacement pair if they cost like 60 euros rather than 2-300.


There are many brands making proper shoes/boots for winter hiking. I would recommend taking a look at Haix, Lowa, Salomon Quest series, Lundhags and Meindl.


Brown noise always does the trick for me when things get noisy, and being very careful about choosing the apartment/room you rent, making sure it's at least somewhat quiet.


Hmm, actually lines up for me at least. It was a pretty big news item a few months ago when Salesforce did this drastic reduction in their Customer Service department, and Marc Benioff raved about how great AI was (you might have just missed it):

  https://www.ktvu.com/news/salesforce-ai-layoffs-marc-benioff
At the time, it was such a big deal to a lot of us because it was a signal what could eventually happen to the rest of us white collar workers.

Of course, it could still happen, as maybe AI systems just need another few years to mature before trying to fully replace jobs like this...

... although, one thing I agree with you is that there isn't much info online on these quotes from Salesforce executives, so could be made up.


I’m beginning to doubt very much that will happen. AI/LLMs are already based on 99% of all accessible text in the world (I made that stat up, but I think I’m not far off). Where will the additional intelligence come from that SalesForce needs for the long tail, the nuance, and the tough cases? AI is good at what it’s already good at - I predict we won’t see another order of magnitude improvement with all the current approaches.


Hmm, am no LLM expert, but agree with you that the models themselves for the individual subject domains seem like they're starting to reach their peaks (Writing, solving math, coding, music gen...) and the improvements are becoming a lot less dramatic than couple of years ago.

But, feel like combining LLM's with other AI techniques seems like it could do so much more...

... As mentioned, am no expert, but seems like one of the next major focuses on LLM's is on verification of its answers, and adding to this, giving LLM's a sense for when its result are right or wrong. Yeah, feel like the ability for an LLM to introspect itself so it can gain an understanding of how it got its answer might be of help if knowing if its answer is right (think Anthropic has been working on this for awhile now), as well as scoring the reliability of the information sources.

And, they could also mix in a formal verification step, using some form of proof to prove that its results are right (for those answers that lend themselves to formal verification).

Am sure all this is all currently being tried. So any AI experts out there, feel free to correct me. Thanks!


The idea of formal verification works great for code or math where clear rules exist, but in customer support, there is no formal specification. You can't write a unit test for empathy or for "did we correctly understand that the customer actually wants a refund even though they're asking about settings." This is the Neuro-symbolic AI problem: to verify an LLM answer, you need a rigid ontology of the world (Knowledge Graph or rules), but the real world of customer interaction is chaos that cannot be fully formalized


Ah yes, and actually, Agreed (as mentioned, formal verification is only possible for "those answers that lend themselves to it").

Interesting that you mentioned Knowledge Graphs, haven't heard about these in a long time. Just looked up "Commonsense knowledge" page on wikipedia and seems like they're still being added to. Would you happen to know if they're useful yet and can do any real work? or are good enough to integrate with LLM's?


For me, it’s always having website productivity blockers on all my browsers across all my various devices (and for the most part, not installing news apps on any devices either). Haven’t simplified my digital life, but at least it’s very restricted. Yeah, if even one device doesn’t have one installed, feel like am vulnerable to having hours sucked away.

And actually, still browse the web and watch YouTube, but just on my non-work days.


Interesting point actually. yeah, when spacex was trying to build a reusable rockets, many traditional rocket scientists said that even if you are able to recover stages of the rocket, you still need to refurbish and test a great number of parts, and it just isn’t this panacea for lowering rocket costs (for example, the space shuttle, which was reusable spacecraft, but was super expensive to launch).

When spacex finally got falcon 9 reusability working (and am no expert in this) but from what I read, the pundits were partially right and partially wrong. Yes, refurbishment and testing on the Falcon 9 does cost a lot, but it still brings down the cost significantly (just looked it up, their saying nowadays, the cost savings is something like 70%, which actually is huge). And as importantly, you don’t have to build a new rocket for every launch, and once you get your refurbishment process down like clockwork, you can relaunch them quite often.

So maybe data centers in space won’t be like ones on earth, but they still might be very useful… One idea is that they could become true “space” data centers, that supply powerful computing for satellites near by. This way satellites could get access to much more powerful computing, while still being small themselves (but again, am no expert in this, so maybe this idea also has many holes, for example why not just offload processing to ground based data centers).


Although, I agree that for average people, over instrumentalizing your interactions becomes fake (although, to be honest, most could use a bit more, including myself, to communicate more effectively with those close to us).

Still, agree with others, seems like you're generalizing what is good for the average person is also good for those with personalities that are more at the extremes. Yeah, know a couple of people who just don't understand what people are thinking or feeling, ever. And so they have to learn a system of cues to look for to figure out whether a person is angry or sad or happy... These people need to create systems to make socialization work.


Super interesting. Didn't know this.

One question for you since your worked at SpaceX. Starship v4 is supposed to be able to bring 200 metric tons to LEO vs 35 metric tons for v2. Do you have any guesses on the finally amount that New Glenn will be able to bring up when it reaches its version/block 4?


The numbers for payload beyond v3 are aspirational at best.


Interesting, and sounds like Elon:)


>200 tons to LEO

*In fully reusable first AND second stage configuration.

An expendable starship would double the tonnage.


Thanks:)


Was thinking about that. It is interesting how they got so much working in just two launches compared to SpaceX, which works so incrementally.

Still, am wondering though if SpaceX's highly iterative approach is a better way, because with Blue Origin's more standard approach of getting everything right the first time, you may need to over engineer everything, which seems like it may take longer.

On the flipside, SpaceX's approach might tax the engineers, because they have to deal with launching so often, and maybe if they had done less launches, they might have actually gotten falcon and starship out quicker...

...But, then again maybe at Spacex, the "launch" engineers are really the ones that have to deal with getting the rockets ready for launch, while the core design engineers can focus on building the latest version. And all the launches are used to test out different ideas and gather real life data). Hmm, for my part, am leaning towards the spacex way of doing things.

(maybe SpaceX and Blue Origin engineers could share their thoughts if they're reading this??)


A lot of SpaceX employees went over to Blue Origin over the years, so there also was a lot of knowledge transfer and Blue could capitalize on the iterations of SpaceX.


Very interesting:) And as much as I like the ideas behind starship, think having a strong second launch provider is a good thing. Hope Blue Origin catches up even more


I think the key difference, to some approximation, is that Blue Origin is designing a rocket while SpaceX is designing a rocket factory.


Good point, this is probably the right way to go, to have a factory that is able to build a lot of your rockets quickly and cheaply. Yeah, during development, this would allow for quicker build and launches, to test your vehicles. And afterwards, with a usable rocket, allows for a high number of rockets available for real missions.


agreed, they need to pick more engineer focused people who love building rockets rather than impersonal PR people. Sometimes, the broadcast felt like a standard business seminar.


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