I suppose this is a more forward looking post though. It's about whoever gets to whatever is awaiting us in the future 7 months before the other.
And I guess the idea is is that there is this extreme inflection point in utility somewhere that makes it so getting there first gives you some incredible economic edge.
It might not exist though. Like either utility plateaus and its bubble crash of the century time or it just keeps going up but without any specific point where you can differentiate something.
The GP is talking about recursive self-improvement.
What yes, it's clear by now it's way beyond the capacity of those AIs, and the odds are pretty good it's impossible to a large extent (but some limited version of it may be possible).
I think a lot of usage will move to the cheap open weight Chinese models once there is an incentive to do that. Everything below the highest end frontier models are becoming commoditized and I suspect the commodity segment will pass the "good enough" bar for most applications.
This seems true for our moment in time but looking forward I'm not sure how much it will stay that way. The LLMs will inevitably need to find a sustainable business model so I can very much see them becoming enshittified similar to google eventually making 2) and 3) more similar to each other.
An alternative business model is that you, or more likely your insurance, pays $20/mo for unlimited access to a medical agent, built on top of an LLM, that can answer your questions. This is good for everyone -- the patient gets answers without waiting, the insurer gets cost savings, doctors have a less hectic schedule and get to spend more time on the interesting cases, and the company providing the service gets paid for doing a good job -- and would have a strong incentive to drive hallucination rate down to zero (or at least lower than the average physician's).
The medical industry relies on scarcity and it's also heavily regulated, with expensive liability insurance, strong privacy rules, and a parallel subculture of fierce negligence lawyers who chase payouts very aggressively.
There is zero chance LLMs will just stroll into this space with "Kinda sorta mostly right" answers, even with external verification.
Doctors will absolutely resist this, because it means the impending end of their careers. Insurers don't care about cost savings because insurers and care providers are often the same company.
Of course true AGI will eventually - probably quite soon - become better at doctoring than many doctors are.
But that doesn't mean the tech will be rolled out to the public without a lot of drama, friction, mistakes, deaths, and traumatic change.
This is a great idea and insurance companies as the customer is brilliant. I could see this extend to prescribing as well. There are huge numbers of people that would benefit from more readily prescribed drugs like GLP-1s, and these have large portential to decrease chronic disease.
It's a forcing function that ensures the middle layers of a vertically integrated stack remain market competitive and don't stagnate because they are the default/only option
This is the right take - there is a huge variation in "value per dollar" across AWS services. The base ones that solve hard problems like durable persistent state can be very much worth it. They tend to be the older ones.
I'm willing to believe it will make high-judgement autonomous people more productive, I'm less sure it will scale to everyone. The author is one of the senior-most technical staff at AWS.
I just wish the Gemini app would stop inserting and auto playing a YouTube video into nearly every response when I'm on a mobile connection. There appears to be no way to stop it.
RouterOS 7 with the wifiwave2 package supposedly improves on this by (finally) supporting 802.11r/k/v for roaming between APs.
I don't have any mikrotik hardware new enough to support it so I haven't tried it myself yet and documentation is (as usual) pretty lacking, but like you I want to believe.
reply