this attitude is so ridiculously disingenuous. Surely if a computer can score incredibly well on math olympiad questions, among other things, "a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences" is dismissive at best.
I have no idea about AGI but honestly how can you use claude or chatgpt and come away unimpressed? It's like looking at spaceX and saying golly the space winter is going to be harsh because they haven't gotten to Mars yet.
There's a big difference between those two examples.
Mars is hard but there are paths forward. More efficient engines, higher energy density fuels, lighter materials, better shielding, etc, etc. It's hard but there are paths forward to make it possible with enough time and money. We have an understanding of how to get from what we have now to what makes Mars possible.
With LLMs, there is no path from LLM -> gAI. No amount of time, money or compute will make that happen. They are fundamentally a very 'simple' tool that is only really capable of one thing - predicting text. There is no intelligence. There is no understanding. There is no creativity or problem solving or thought of any kind. They just spit out text based on weighted probabilities. If you want gAI you have to go in a completely different direction that has no relationship with LLM tools.
Don't get me wrong, the work that's been done so far took a long time and is incredibly impressive, but it's a lot more smoke and mirrors than most people realize.
I'll grant that we could send humans to mars sooner if we really wanted to. My point is that not achieving a bigger dream doesn't make current progress a hype wave followed by a winter.
And "LLM's just make plausible looking but incorrect text" is silly when that text is more correct than the average adult a large percentage of the time.
The issues oftentimes are what can the founder do before he or she moves to the startup and what company-related items need to be in place before the founder can be sponsored by the startup. This requires a conversation unfortunately since the advice is case-specific. My advice then is to find a good corporate attorney and to speak with an immigration attorney who works with founders and startups before setting up the company.
they didn’t submit it here - I’m not sure they bear a responsibility to make sure their work is accessible to HN or any other target audience. If you don’t find an otherwise respectful and substantive blog post useful, perhaps best to leave it be.
An unsophisticated person looks at this and says golly I better get tan!
A somewhat sophisticated person says something like the above.
People who change the world will wonder there’s something there. especially given the sober and candid examination of possible confounding factors and mechanisms of action.
“There are approximately seven scanners per million inhabitants and over 90% are concentrated in high-income countries. We describe an ultra-low-field brain MRI scanner that operates using a standard AC power outlet and is low cost to build.”
This is fantastic. What a sentence to get to write.
Yea, the way they turned the bleak situation into something sanguine is fascinating. I still remember how expensive is MRI. I used to earn like $150 usd and the cost was around $200 usd. I hope such inequality shall perish in the future, so people can at least get proper treatment.
I'm curious what makes them expensive. In Japan they are basically free (covered by national insurance for which the price is low). I believe at one point Japan had the most MRI machines per capita. I think the government just decided they were worth while and got a bunch where as in the USA they were seen as a money source and they generally charge $1k to $10k ?!?!?!
I'd love for the expensive ones to be disrupted. The dream is we get some attachment for our smart phones and turn them into Tricorders.
I worked for a medical company that did RF tumor ablation. In Japan we sold a machine that cooked small tumors as an out-patient procedure, because their easy MRIs would spot them early. In the US, we sell more complicated machines that work on bigger tumors because we find them later here - when they get too big, you have to be very careful not to damage surrounding tissue.
I live in a Russian city of 100k people and there are at least 3 medical MRI machines nearby that I visited, of a total 8 offers that maybe share the machines (though likely not), all of them of 1T field strength or above. I can get a brain MRI this week for some $70, or a full-body MRI (the most expensive as per the price list) for $400. If anything, these services got some 30%-50% cheaper in the past decade. Barring some African hellhole, the argument to scarcity or expense of these machines is complete and utter bullshit. It's just that HN is America-centric, and American healthcare is a cesspit of waste and corruption.
> There are few good passive investments right now. There's so much capital available in search of returns that all the good ones and most of the mediocre ones have been taken.
This is one of the more insightful comments in this thread. The risk is not merely that Sam’s investments are not diversified, it’s that Sam has competition from more sophisticated capital. Truly passive investments often scale (and get more passive with scale). That scale attracts a lot of capital that can afford lower revenue, higher risk, and better expert knowledge.
Instead of competing with big companies, you might as well just buy stock in them. They've already mastered how to run those businesses with very low overhead!
I'm not sure that's necessarily true. It is true (at least with a non-constructive proof) that if you pick a 'random' real number then it contains all possible PDFs with probability one ( or that the set of numbers for which this is not true has lebesgue measure zero). But I'm not sure it's known that pi has this property.
I have no idea about AGI but honestly how can you use claude or chatgpt and come away unimpressed? It's like looking at spaceX and saying golly the space winter is going to be harsh because they haven't gotten to Mars yet.