This is the course I used online to learn Objective-C and UIKit to make iOS applications, and now I am a Staff iOS Engineer. Nice to see him still doing this.
Referencing Marc Benioff making bold claims about AI isn't much evidence, he's pulling these numbers out of thin air. Despite claiming they won't hire software engineers in 2025, there are plenty of positions open at Salesforce for software engineers.
Agreed. I still think we're seeing layoffs due to _overhiring_ in 2020. AI makes a nice excuse when laying these people off because CEOs can say their huge investments in AI are starting to pay off because they don't need the humans.
Turns out, they never needed those humans in the first place.
That doesn't answer the other side of the problem though, that it's so hard to find work right now, even for folks who would typically be very easy to employ.
Sure it does. If everybody overhired, then nobody needs to hire now. And the few places that do are inundated with all the laid-off job seekers, so odds on getting hired at one of them are very low.
At my employer the overhiring was in areas where there wasn't actually a business case. For example they staffed an entire internal team to build a unified portal between all of the software systems the company acquired through acquisitions. That team produced nothing and at great expense. They got laid off last year, and the funds re-allocated toward hiring in areas that produced revenue or reduced expenses.
Layoffs are one of the only ways way to cut spending before quarterly reports when the market is already saturated. The other way is to make the products cheaper (enshittification).
As far as more employable candidates go, I don't think executives realize the vast limitations of LLM. You have to remember they aren't technical people. They're thinking managers with no training are going to replace skilled employees--that there was a secret magic button that the lowly employees all knew about and it's now in their hands.
Sam Altman said there were now going to be one-person, billion-dollar companies. Reading between the lines, since there's not enough money for every person to do that, what does he intend for the remainder to become?
Can someone please refer me to the hard data on "overhiring in 2020"?
I was laid off as part of the initial panic in early 2020. The job market for IT for the entirety of 2020 was dead. D-E-A-D. There was a _very_ small pickup in the summer when people got more optimistic about the vaccines but it waned very quickly.
I'm in the Midwest so it might have been different in the West but I doubt it was that much different.
There was _some_ pickup in 2021, when companies realized the end of the world isn't happening soon, but it was not very significant. IT job market never really normalized, there was some pickup in 2022 but by then LLM hype started causing layoffs to go up and openings down.
If it was just Marc Benioff preaching then it would indeed not deserve much attention. However, most big companies at this point have internal roadmap to reduce workforce by large amounts.
Nice to see PagerDuty mentioned here. I was on the mobile team at PagerDury that battled to get the entitlement to use Critical Notifications in the app. We were refused multiple times before we got the entitlement.
It's been argued a lot that such a move would cause a good portion of American billionaires to just pack up and move to another country. Rich people are mobile in a way that poor people are not.
Believe it or not but there are Americans who relinquish their passport precisely because of this reason.
Patriotism is automatically assumed but we live in a globalised world.
The US is fairly unique in imposing an "expatriation" tax precisely to avoid this situation. The IRS taxes all of their assets as if sold on the day before expatriation.
Of course collecting taxes internationally is difficult, but anyone wealthy enough to meet the criteria will probably need to visit the US at some point.
Most of the times I've heard of it happening it's someone who's net worth is well below the threshold for this (indeed well below the threshold where they actually need to pay any income tax to the US government), but because of the headache of needing to file the paperwork and the fact that a lot of banks don't want to deal with US citizens due to extra requirements imposed on them by the US government (via its financial system).
The USA is not unique but member of a very exclusive club. The other member is the enlightened dictatorship of Eritrea. And, IIRC, Trump promised to abolish this taxation during his campaign. I'm not holding my breath.
I don't think its that simple and is overly simplistic. If it was all about getting a better deal why wouldn't they have all left for Switzerland by now? Objectively, its a better deal than what the US offers - even on tax rates.
Just within the US you could ask why wealthy people aren't all moving to states without any income taxes more frequently. Plenty do move to certain low tax states but network effects, infrastructure, stability, well-understood regulations, etc., seem to often play a bigger role.
Everyone has their own tipping point. Just as salary isn't the only reason to move job, taxes aren't the only reason to stay. But at some point, people move. And the US makes you pay tax overseas anyway, so you can't just move and re-domicile. You have to emigrate and gain citizenship elsewhere.
Where does their income come from? (e.g. investment growth, etc.)
Can't you basically tax their income, and quadruple that tax if they move abroad and want to move their money out of the U.S.?
(I'm guessing it's not easy, but I also guess the reason it's not done is because the ultra rich have so much influence on the politicians and tax code... not for whatever other logistical reasons might exist.)
Plus, if you do that you're a frigging communist. On the other hand, it's so much better to call neighbors, allies and everyone else people pillaging/raping the country. People like drama :)
If the billionaires pack up and move to another country, then those who are willing to pay their due taxes and operate with a lesser profit margin would take the place they left in the market. There is no need to oblige sociopathic profiteers because they threaten to leave.
And, where will they go, really? There are considerable taxes in every country that billionaires would consider. And if they choose to cram into some small island tax haven in the Caribbean, the US can easily pressure that tax haven to do anything it wants.
