Completely different matter. Military concerns aside, the main problem for China there is they know they're absolutely going get killed diplomatically and economically in the aftermath. The leadership knows well what would happen or else they would've done it long ago.
That is the reasoning that is most at risk here. China's tactical ability to succeed in Taiwan is not really related to America's ability to succeed in Venezuela.
However, assuming the US gets away with this diplomatically, this does set a real precedent that countries can get away with this diplomatically; which will make it harder to organize diplomatic and economic responses to China.
I disagree. This doesn't really change anything. It's not like China needed justification to invade Taiwan, they already do, nor it is not like China or Russia follows the rules based order, see South China Sea or Ukraine. From their perspective, the rules based order was created by the US to attack them, and the West hypocritically apply the rules where they see fit.
Ultimately, the international rules based order was mostly created to protect smaller and weaker powers that be and to constrain the strong. Since nobody can enforce international law, the strong do what they like anyway.
Anthropic probably doesn't have the independent capabilities to perform a full definitive attribution of sophisticated cyberattacks. They likely detected misuse of their tools and then worked with/provided information to the intelligence community (who are familiar with the modus operandi of Chinese APTs) who then did the attribution.
It doesn't really matter how advanced your supercomputing infrastructure is .... the simulation is as good as the input and data from actual tests.
The big question is whether China is confident enough with the data they have from 47 tests.
Any non-subcritical testing is a gift to China as they are severely lagging behind US on number of tests conducted and therefore amount of data collected about warhead design.
Resumption of tests would add fresh data to verify new warhead designs over the decades since the last test. US would have a lesser need for new data given the amount of testing done during the cold war.
If US does conduct a nuclear test I bet a whole slew of test from China would come very shortly after that. Work has already been noticed in recent years in the test tunnel.
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