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this is really just self-congratulation by them about how they have strong deal flow.

they also use this as a disingenuous/insincere way of rejecting founders (we don't want to invest, but you're probably one of the other unicorns we didn't invest in! check out out antiportfolio!)


Thanks for this. Just reminds me how much I hate the entire business model of venture capital circa 2020.

If you are a founder just remember that raising capital is a tool just like any other. Misuse of it can be disastrous for your business.

I’d encourage more entrepreneurs to build companies like Basecamp.


It is indeed difficult to communicate one’s own humility.


i'm interested in the project you mentioned-- drop me an email adam at springhealth.com if you'd like to chat


There's always a PG article -- http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html [April 2005]


agreed


you should look into chargehound[chargehound.com], i think they would work for you.


Their cost estimator estimates 30 minutes preparing a chargeback dispute. I do them when they come in and it never takes even 5 minutes.


Hey there, founder of Chargehound here, it's a slider so you can adjust it to 5 mins if you want.

Many companies do take up to 30 minutes especially if they are compiling a comprehensive portfolio (if the dispute is for thousands of dollars) and are outsourcing the representment.


i think its because they are correcting for the commuter tax deduction. ask your HR folks about https://www1.nyc.gov/site/dca/about/commuter-benefits-law.pa...


Nope, just out of date. $116.50 was the price prior to the increase to $121.

The commuter tax deduction lets you buy the cards with pre-tax money deducted from your paycheck, which is a substantial reduction up to 45% or so depending on your marginal tax rate. Of course, because it's using pre-tax money, it's giving a bigger discount to higher earners, which makes it the opposite of progressive, which seems opposite of what's intended.

Separately, seniors/disabled people pay half fare: http://web.mta.info/nyct/fare/rfindex.htm


Original Article author here - happy to help with any questions people have.

Also sorry about the paywall - you can get the article either through sci-hub here http://sci-hub.tw/10.1016/S2215-0366(18)30227-X or you can email me and i'll send you a copy direct!


Awesome.

Question:

Why are you wasting your time?

Do you wish to apply a blanket cure for the unknown multitude causes of mental health issues?

Why do you think reductions in the self reported “mental health” of the general population is useful for people who have been hospitalized with mood disorders?

Don’t you think that people who lie about how much exercise they do also might be lieing to themselves about their mental health?


We've banned this account for being uncivil and otherwise violating the site guidelines.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html


1- surely we're allowed to waste our own time if we like!

2- nope, and actually my entire research agenda has been around helping people find a treatment that is most likely to work for them specifically! (we also founded a company to bring the research to market- springhealth.com)

3- that is beyond the scope of the paper, and we didnt use the word hospitalized once

4- yep, and thats a good example of one of the pitfalls of self-reported surveys. in general, i am a bit less cynical and in our experience, most people aren't filling out surveys to intentionally lie or sabotage.

hope this helps!


You didn't deserve that response. Good job on the paper and keep up the good work. Your findings are supported by other research as you already know.


thanks! <3

we've had a wonderful positive response to this article, and people are overwhelmingly excited and motivated to try and exercise more because of it (even at relatively lower intensities or volumes -- every little helps). even if we are extremely cynical and say theres zero benefit of exercise for mental health, then people will still be getting known improvements regarding diabetes, stroke, cardiovascular disease. Nobody is advocating for exercise at the expense of alternative treatments like meds or therapy, this really is just a (potentially large) extra benefit.


Aw, hearts!

:/

You established ZERO causality in your study! How can you even say you are a scientist and say this has a (potentially) large benefit?!

And you did not even distinguish between mental health and mental illness.

The fact that you are excited that you got a “positive response” from this article just tells me you are a neoliberal shill.


#2, of course. Capitalism.

You want to bring the research to market, not help the mentally ill. You goal is profit.

For the 20 I have been “cared for” by people like you it took my own ingenuity and relentless pressure on a psychiatric system that thinks there is never a nutritional cause to mood disorders to have them test me for a biotinidase deficiency which turned up positive. My mood issues were cured by 15 grams of biotin a day.

Researched and doctors like you were so certain what caused my depression and anxiety you filled me with pills that rarely worked and diabled me with side effects. It took 15 years to even test me for a B12 or iron deficiency.

So sorry, but your study does not help the mentally ill. Maybe it helps people who are stressed from the everclenching fist of capitalism, but that’s about it.


You got shitty psychiatric care. The real tragedy is that is so common.


I hate to pour cold water on this, but medical researchers have been predicting mortality for years.

For example, here's a paper from the 1980's also predicting when a patient will die, also using a couple of thousands of patients' data: http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/3816253

And, Google's paper wasn't published in Nature, it was in a new open access journal owned by Nature. In academia, that is like the difference between a really fancy porsche, and a really cheap volkswagen (two very different things, both owned by the same company).


Regardless of medical / health insurance purposes, actuaries have been doing this for over a century esp. to price life insurance, among other things.


Google's innovation isn't predicting mortality. It's predicting mortality based on data that was hidden from previous models. That's very likely where all of the improvement is coming from, but since it's hard to write a good headline or lede based on that, we get this instead.


From the paper:

"...the novelty of the approach does not lie simply in incremental model performance improvements. Rather, this predictive performance was achieved without hand-selection of variables deemed important by an expert, similar to other applications of deep learning to EHR data. Instead, our model had access to tens of thousands of predictors for each patient, including free-text notes, and identified which data were important for a particular prediction."

So it sounds like the advance here is actually in the following: "a generic data processing pipeline that can take raw EHR data as input, and produce FHIR outputs without manual feature harmonization".

The article doesn't explain this very clearly. Yay!


>In academia, that is like the difference between a really fancy porsche, and a really cheap volkswagen (two very different things, both owned by the same company).

I think you want to say Skoda or Seat. Both owned by VW and the cheap cars.


placebo rates would be something in the 15-40% remission rate range, in small RCTs. it varies more than you would think from one trial to another. antidepressant efficacy would be something like 20-45%. recovery rates are usually higher in smaller trials, and lower in bigger trials, partly because people get more high-touch service in smaller academic studies


theres a website called sci-hub (which maybe illegal) that you can use to get almost any paper in a STEM field, especially from major journals. you type www.sci-hub.cc/ and then paste the DOI of the paper. it takes you straight to the pdf!


Or you can contact the researcher, who are generally happy to share our research via email. Or check their researchgate.



Also if it doesn't work (happens from time to time) or disappears, they have a tor mirror that works consistently: scihub22266oqcxt.onion.


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