Thanks for the comment. I was trying to make clear this is a short-term strategy in a rising rate environment where you eventually want the principal back and don't want to take much risk. In accounts with longer term goals like retirement accounts you'd probably mix equities and more diversified bond funds.
Is there a way you think the strategy and when it's appropriate could be made more clear?
It's a good article and the strategy is appropriate as part of a more diverse portfolio. My point wasn't that the article was bad, but that holding till maturity only gives the illusion of bypassing interest rate risk.
"The only real risk to principal is being locked in to a rate that's lower than inflation for an extended period."
> Is there a way you think the strategy and when it's appropriate could be made more clear?
I think it's a useful strategy as part of a diversivied portfolio. As the GP mentioned:
> Prudent portfolios include equities as well as debt.
Your guide to building a treasury ladder would be useful to someone implementing Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio concept, which holds 50% of its assets in US Treasuries. However, building a diversified portfolio is likely outside the scope of your guide.
Automated CD ladders are great too. The only issues are if you need to liquidate in an emergency you take a bigger hit, and you owe state tax but in general they can be good enough for many people.
> The mindset for rational and sane upward mobility seems to remain stubbornly out of reach, causing many honest, decent people to save up nest eggs which are then extremely vulnerable to scammers. If we had a body of information available that's better than the current personal finance advice, which seems geared for retirement planning, then we could cut down on a lot of tragic outcomes.
For me, writing this post, I was hoping to make some information available to all that could promote a narrow part of investing that is safe and helps people get the most out of their shorter-term savings. But there is a much bigger picture. Personal finance basics (ex. how to save, how to spend, investing, debt, credit, buy vs. borrow, day-to-day stuff) are sorely lacking in our society and it leaves people vulnerable. It's a huge issue that is going to take a lot to address... This is just a tiny part but I hope to do more.
Please feel free to email me if you ever want to discuss more topics like this.
> Some firms offer target maturity bond funds which will is the best of both worlds.
These are great for corporate bonds. Check out iShares iBonds if you want to include corporate bonds in your portfolio without building a ladder or taking on interest rate risk.
You don't want to include corporate bonds in your portfolio. Generally speaking, buying equities gets you a better price for the risk you take; a slightly higher equity percentage with government-backed bonds will generally outperform at the same level of risk.
In theory that's true if you hold the fund forever but take the example of VGSH from another comment thread. If you bought that fund exactly 1 year ago and sold today you would have realized a return of less than 2% because while the yield is currently about 2.5% the price decrease over that time was about 1.5%. Your return would have been less than buying a single treasury yielding 2% a year ago and letting it mature.
I don't think this has anything to do with how long you hold the fund. In essence, the original comment was using bond ladders as a proxy for holding bonds till expiration and using bond funds as a proxy for always liquidating your bonds and reinvesting at the new rate on any rate change. The question is really about holding vs liquidating bonds, not funds vs ladders (which theoretically could hold or liquidate, depending on their implementation). If the market is fairly priced, then there is no expected value difference between holding and liquidating.
In the example I gave above, the value of the fund in a year is still $102 (independent of whether they hold the bonds to maturity or whether they sell at the fair market value and reinvest at the higher rate). In your example, buying and holding a treasury would only be better than VGSH if the market on average underestimated the future interest rate over that time period (so that as VGSH rolled (i.e. liquidated and reinvested) its bonds at an average rate of less than 2%). This has less to do with holding vs liquidating than it has to do with fair pricing of the interest rate. The main difference between holding to maturity and rolling the bonds is this: if you hold to maturity you make a single large bet on the interest rate; if you roll your bonds, you make several smaller bets on the interest rate.
Yes, as you say, holding a bond instead of rolling it can lead to a different return (when the market expectation of the future rate is wrong). But for most people this is irrelevant, as they won't be better at valuing interest rates than the rest of the market.
I added a note in my article to clarify this. My strategy here is short-term. You want to withdraw your capital eventually, not hold forever. Maybe you are saving for a house in a few years. If you suspect that rates are still rising when you let your ladder burn down then this can be a good approach. I agree that for long term investments (ex. a retirement account) this is probably not the right approach. Thoughts on how I can make it more clear?
I think your key point is this: "If you suspect that rates are still rising when you let your ladder burn down then this can be a good approach." I agree with this statement.
If you disagree with the market pricing of interest rates, then yes, you should do something other than the market (i.e. what the bond fund would do). Letting the ladder burn down (as opposed to continuing to roll, as the fund would) is claiming that the rates will be higher than the market is currently pricing them.
If you agree with the market pricing of bonds, then the ladder is equivalent to the bond fund (because the bond fund is simply managing the ladder for you by proxy).
I am not sure if that's true for non-fixed-maturity funds because the fund manager will keep the ladder rolling after 5-7 years, ie. the fund won't just pay out at maturity - they will keep reinvesting further and further into the future.
There are some bond funds called fixed-maturity funds that actually mature on a date and pay back the principal. Ie. they let all the bonds inside mature without reinvesting them. iShares iBonds are an example. But this is not the norm for bond funds.
You generally seem to be conflating face (static) value with market (dynamic) value. You're not wrong but your article makes a number of statements implying a ladder is better/safer simply because you refuse to recognize that the current value will deviate from par.
Cool. I will read that. I'm trying to address the practical case of buying something, earning interest, then selling it and/or having it mature, not holding into perpetuity. Maybe I can be more clear about this in the post so after I read this I can make an update. Thanks for linking!
I added: Some readers have pointed out that over the long term there isn't a difference between building a ladder and using a similar bond fund. This strategy assumes that eventually you'll want to move your principle out of bonds and into something else like a down payment (while rates are still rising), but you don't have a well-defined timeline. If you are planning on keeping your principle invested in bonds into perpetuity then a bond fund might be a more suitable investment.
Schwab also does not charge fees for new treasury bond issues. I assume this is a loss leader for them and they make back their money in the secondary market.
I'm not sure that works universally. If you buy a bond with a 2% yield today that matures in 3 years and you decide to sell in 1 year instead and at that point the current rate is 3% the price you sell at will be lower than the price you paid so you won't make a 2% return in the first year...
Re: fees depends on your platform. Fidelity charges no fees or markups for treasuries but if your platform does it's something to consider in addition to bid/ask spread.
What you're missing is that on average the market would have factored that into the price of the 1 year bond.
If you look at past data there is on average no difference between buying 1 year bonds and keeping them to maturity and buying 3 year bonds and selling after 1 year.
The only case maybe for buying 1 year bonds is where you have another contract which matures in 1 year denominated in the same currency. E.g. I have a mortgage payment of $1020 that I have to make in 1 year so I should invest $1000 into a bond that pays 2% interest.
It depends. In my article I pointed out that with Fidelity there are no commissions or markups on treasuries on the secondary market. If there were, it would definitely change the calculus.
You are correct in rising interest rate environments where you believe the rates will continue to rise.
With bond funds you can get the same yield as the ladder (interest payments) if you hold forever and never sell, but if you sell you may take a hit because the price has gone down. That doesn't happen with ladders since you always get paid out the face value.
Is there a way you think the strategy and when it's appropriate could be made more clear?