Only those 250K and below depositors will get their money back pay by Fed. Amount greater than that subject to availability of asset fire sales AFTER more senior debts repaid. Depositors are considered "investors" by SCOTUS and hence has much lower pecking order than other secured debts. They are higher than unsecured debt and stockholders if that is the silver linings you looking for.

Just go look up Asian and mostly BRICS countries are dumping US debts. China has lesser T-Bills than a decade ago. This massive sell off already spooked US Treasuries. Look up Janet traveling intinerary for the last 2 months. Fed is buying up and interest rates is higher than Fed rate at this moment. Many banks are parking their cash there. A doubling of rates will cause billions of immediate lost. Even they refuse to write off, bank run is happening. I have many friends fired from jobs couldnt get a single HR interviews for already 2 months...something unheard of just 6mths ago. These jobsless people will drain their deposit akin to bank run indirectly. Right now foreign countries e.g. China and many Asian and middle east countries are actively liquidating their American assets and repatriate their cash back. We will see at least 2008 if not the GD of the 1920s-30s in coming 12-24mths. The only thing that will stop this is USA go into war with Russia. That will temporary boost economy before total anhinilation. You will be surprise how shortsighted American leaders are trading short term gain for long term demise.

Open spaces allow easier monitoring and easier allocation (hot seats). This cubicle wont last long before they rediscover the need of management which is easier management (easy monitor+easy allocation). I give it 3 years at most.

Not going to happen. Supreme court has ruled depositors as investors. The pecking order after 250K is just slightly better than unsecured loan and shareholders. Who would have though Lehmans 2.0 replay itself again.

Depositors are consider investors in banks. 250K and below will be insured by Feds. Anything above will be considered like civil forfeiture that will be given to debts with higher seniority. Salary and bonuses of staff will take the highest seniority. Then secured loans. Depositors will likely get a portion of their remaining money just before shareholders. This is very well established principle. You can go checkout how much depositors in Lehman Brothers gotten their money back.

> Depositors are consider investors in banks.

This is nowhere near the truth.

If it was, then actual shareholders would recover at least $250,000 from their investment. As it stands, shareholders are poised to recover pretty much nothing.

There is nothing lucky about his pull. When you are super rich you get access to highly restricted network. You will know people and have access to them directly that ordinary peasants like us cant. He most likely have been warned months ago. And his own ai tech can piece together how reliable his warnings are.

There were newsletters saying SVB was insolvent in January.

Yet Thiel took no action until Thursday.

Find me a potential scenario and I'll find a random newsletter or tweet thread predicting it.

Things like this remind me of the hindsight lens of many conspiracy theorists ("We're wrong 99/100 but look at this one we got right") or even people (mostly playfully) saying things like "The Simpsons predicted 9/11".

To say that the average startup founder/team should have taken action based on a random newsletter or tweet thread predicting this (storied 40 year old bank failing) in January is pretty absurd.

The newsletters based everything off of publicly available information.

By Thursday, the news were already abuzz with SVB being in dire straits and the CEO calling people to tell them their deposits were safe.

It's funny you compare this to the hindsight of a conspiracy theorist when this whole notion that Peter Thiel used secret insider knowledge is by definition a conspiracy theory. I only present the alternative, that there was information publicly available that could have led one to draw this conclusion.

Again, publicly available information (from months ago) resulting in a thesis - not any different than that of any short seller, talking television head, Twitter account, or “newsletter” predicting anything throughout history.

This thesis happened to be proven correct in this instance. Now let’s go talk about the thousands that have been wrong.

I didn’t and don’t support any conspiracy regarding Thiel in any of this. I don’t think that conversation is productive.

What I am saying is the timing is interesting and anyone who thinks the playing field is level with a 25 year SV power player veteran billionaire is delusional.

Do you have any links handy?

Here, buried in the bottom of the comments, is the most useful piece of information in the entire section.

My question is what else has this fellow identified and what have Thiel et al. read and internalized?

SIVB's issues were outlined far before that Twitter analysis https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565388-svb-financial-blow-...

Dec. 2022:

"Unfortunately, the flipside of the tech bubble is fairly ugly for the company with added pressure coming from higher operating costs, higher costs of deposits, and unrealized losses in its htm (hold to maturity) fixed income portfolio. Both these htm losses and potential losses from the loan portfolio could wipe out book equity value."

Agreed. The headline and article are classic click bait. Folks should read the tweet above for the full details.

Which ones?

Maybe because you have a niche Linux uses and very specific distro. On Windows, there are no distro and no gui manager. Everything works. I have been to old folks home teaching computing. From starting Windows to surfing Internet to print out take less than 15mins. The teaching is very straight forward. The same for Linux which I taught a bunch of teenagers are nightmare when they bring their own laptops. So many drivers missing and breakage here and there. The irony is that wsl actually save the day because it just works. I can setup a scenario where closing my eyes and select 25 brands and install python anaconda and minecraft to just work. I can bet 100K usd you cant do the same in the same amount of time on Linux of ANY distro of your choosing. Simply you are damn good with your specific Linux and your niche habits doesnt translate to majority computer users worldwide. Take building controls very specific niche, Linux equivalent GUI server simply rare and usually lack the full feature of Windows equivalent. Yes, one can run Win VM in Linux to get it done, but boy that is getting complicated for engineers working in that field.

I dunno, there was a time about 10 years ago when drivers on windows were a nightmare, but Linux just worked. I mostly use stupid Linux distros (system 76) and not even installing the Linux (just as one usually doesn't install windows).

Many of these rich are running businesses which employed poorer salaried people like us. Not saving us directly in 2008 is ok as back them we are minority. Not saving these businesses will trigger a Lehman Brothers contagion collapse which means a lot of people like us will be out of job...meaning a lot of us have to restart our careers like 2008. Furthermore, these time it will impact higher paying jobs in techs. The lost of 1 tech worker can easily destroy 5 to 10 walmart workers level jobs. They buy less gadgets, groceries and vacations which poorer people seldom do as much as these tech workers (I have yet seeing walmart "associate" buying tesla but seen more than 200+ tech workers own one at least in the last 10 years. Guess what will happen after the collapse? China will take over. These lost tech workers will work remotely for others divulging tons of IP knowledge (I know this full well because this is essentially what my 3 companies actively engage in).

Meta has multiple server relay nodes in EU. Just shutfown the relay nodes in UK and geolocation block all incoming connections to EU servers coming from UK IP address. The phone number is just at user registration. Back-end they know. Heck, my whatsapp even route my voice call info (likely they transcribe and send to FB adverts processing via chatGPT-like solution) and flooded my FB with related ads derived from my voice call keywords.