This was the same argument made for Google Wave and Google+ and both completely tanked

The tech behind wave eventually made its way into Google docs though and pioneered collaborative document editing, so wasn't a complete failure even though the product itself was killed.

No comment on Google+, Google has a storied history of failure on any kind of social media/chat type products.

Where Google wins is just simply having enough money to outlive anyone else. As the saying goes "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" In this case, Google is the market and they can just keep throwing money at the wall until OpenAI, Anthropic, etc. go under.

Google Docs has no features remotely like what Google Wave was.

And there was collaborative editing long before Google Wave.

Social media has strong network effects that keeps competitors at bay. What network effects are OpenAI/Anthropic/etc accumulating?

Yes, but Gemini is actually good and so are their APIs.

And not just by the day! The weekly limits are the biggest mistake imaginable for maintaining user engagement on a project.

If all of 2025 was overestimated, possibly for political purposes, then why believe that the 2026 numbers are accurate?

Revisions are normal.

It would be quite hard in the long run to make faked BLS numbers line up with other independent data points, like ADP's payroll reports and the IRS's revenues.

Exactly. So we should not believe numbers posted ASAP to Yahoo and other for profit media to drive engagement. Wait for revisions from the source.

Cheap publishing that reaches across the world has created a race to the bottom.

Mass human behavior in regards to fertility, climate destruction, and social decay is much more sensical if you frame it as species-wide suicidality.

Suicidality seems rather overdramatic. It'd take a lot of halvings of the population to reach species viability threshold.

Or overestimate?

Holding all else equal, noisier estimates bias us towards the null. This is attenuation bias.

However, the estimates are still probably overestimated. Confounding, p-hacking, publication bias, all move us towards larger estimates.

I would think that, by default, noise would not have a bias? Adding noise doesn't change the mean, it just increases the variance, right?

The Wikipedia page on this is not bad: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_dilution

It pushes confidence bounds closer to the null hypothesis.

“Still probably” is classic statistical science

Yet it tracks for decades with successive D/R presidents, suggesting that this 4 year excuse is not enough to dismiss the correlation

Mostly coincidence. There aren't that many data points. There are under a dozen Presidents in the last half century. Too small to attribute significance.

I do believe that there could be a small causative effect, but there is usually a very long delay between cause and effect.

Man all kind of inferences get made on HN that new jobs will just appear after AI takes existing jobs because... jobs appeared in the past. This party/president assumption seems much more likely that that one which is based on zero actual data points but seems to be gospel to half of HN.

Wonder if it's more of the activist having an affect? During democrat administrations, groups like NRA scream "they're coming for your guns" causing gun sales to go up during democrat admins and then drop off during GOP admins as the rhetoric drops off.

So the actual data is irrelevant because you can dream up of minor hypothesis?

Horseshit. We have 70 years of evidence to back it up, you cannot call it coincidence without another counter theory. Your opinion, while interesting, is irrelevant. It's clear as day in the data. You could say that the Ds govern with facts and science, the Rs govern with emotion. But what's far more likely is that the Rs believe in theories that run counter to economic principles.

State actors are inherently only subject to their own oversight

English does, and definitely invented it before the rest of the world caught on to this culture. Try watching “Wild Style” from 1983, documenting some of the earliest beefs between the types of graffiti artists. Portuguese speakers did not invent this distinction.

Throw ups are the quick ones and Pieces are the long ones.

I’ve also been encountering this behavior, coupled with rapidly declining length of use for a pro account now below an hour, and weekly limits getting hit by Wednesday despite achieving very little other than fixing its own mistakes after compressions.