What do you think about the actual point, about how grey zone tactics work? If you don't understand them, Russia's tactics will own you (which they seem to).
No it was not. Show me any military analyst that stated Ukraine could last longer than a few weeks or months after the invasion in 2022. And after the weak response from the West in 2014, I don't see how invading Ukraine was insane on Russia's part.
It's not up to military analysts to get this right, it is up to the aggressor to know their own and their opposition's capabilities to within a reasonable degree of error before going in on something irreversible like this.
With hindsight, we can conclude it was madness. Before the war we maybe could have concluded that it would be better to err on the side of caution because of what it will do to foreign relations.
Crimea is a special situation. I won't reiterate its complex history here since there is plenty of written here, but I'd like to point out that one could have a view where Crimea is Russian and yet decry the invasion of Ukraine as illegitimate.
If anything for practical reasons: only 7% of its population is Ukrainian. It would be very a source of continuous ethnic tensions.
Hard Russian nationalism is much more than that
Such people claim that the entirety of Ukraine is just Russia and they mock them for otherwise being Polish. This narrative is an explicit outcome of an Imperial mindset
My personal opinion is that the 2014 annexation wasn't ok but the reason wasn't that Crimea is not Russian but because I value the stability and peace produced by the idea that we shouldn't change borders through force.
But that's the reason why using this "who does Crimea _belong to_" framing of the question is misleading. You will find many people who will say Russia and yet not necessarily subscribe to the imperialistic stance that Russia is employing.
I see it differently. They won't say Ukraine because Russians see themselves as superior to Ukrainians. So anything that might imply Ukrainians might have or do something better, is out of the question. It cannot compute in their brain, because Ukrainians are "Little Russians" at best.
And that's why there is a problem with the mentality of the Russian population. Literally NONE is able to say Crimea belongs to Ukraine, NONE. And that while internationally, it is part of Ukraine.
So no, my question is not misleading. When at least some Russians would say that Crimea actually belongs to Ukraine, I might have some hope. But right now, sorry, no.
Of course many many Russians think that "Ukrainians are "Little Russians" at best." But they are easily revealed for what they are when you ask them litteraly what they think about Ukrainians and you don't have to bring up the crimean question.
I posit that the crimean question will also unnecessarily put in the same cohort all those people who do recognize the distinct culture of Ukraine and their right of self determination but also consider the past and present situation of crimea to be more nuanced.
EDIT: some Russians may recognize that Ukrainians have right to self determination but they may also recognize that today Crimea is populated by a vast majority of Russians and thus there giving that land back to Ukraine would lead to further bloodshed. And yes I have heard actual Russians having that position (I'm not Russian fwiw)
ALL Russians cheered when they annexed Crimea, and NONE of them want to give it back to Ukraine, because NONE of them believe it belongs to Ukraine, counter to international agreement.
You might think this is normal, I don't. And because of that, I don't agree with statements like "it's not the Russian people, only the Russian government".
You didn't mention any Russian that sees it differently, and you confirm everything what I say. Except for the fact that you think it's normal and I don't.
Edit: What I said above is not correct and I apologize for that. After the annexation of Crimea, there was a protest in Russia with thousands of protesters. Some prominent politicians also openly opposed it.
I assume the Russians with whom I have talked to and don't think that forceful annexation was a good thing don't count under your "NONE" description.
Perhaps it's because they are few of them (fair enough mine is just personal experience, not a poll)
Or perhaps it's because you consider everybody who believes that Crimea is now populated mostly by Russians (and thinks that giving it back now will create more trouble than solve) as people who CHEERED the annexation.
I don't think it logically follows.
But I understand your feeling since there are so many people (even outside of Russia) that literally cheer for Russia getting their empire back. Unfortunate their noise surpasses any ability to have a nuanced conversation about this.
I wished humanity headed towards a peaceful resolution of conflicts where people can seek self determination and autonomy (basque, Catalan, Kurds, Palestinians, ...) instead of resolving such issues with invasion and pandering to imperialistic visions
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of regions and countries which have been transferred to a foreign power through "international agreement". Probably even your own birthplace at one time or another in history. And those agreements almost never has anything to do with what is right or justified, or taking into account the self-determination of the population.
So I don't understand how anybody can support "international agreement" by default. I certainly don't. Regarding Crimea I don't have an opinion, because I don't live there.
Germany was split into two by "international agreement", just as an example.
I don't understand. Of course Crimea was acquired by the Russian empire by force, from other people who had it in turn acquired by force and so on. But none of those were Ukrainians.
Kruschcev transferred the crimean oblast as a symbolic gesture.
Pointing this fact out does not contradict one's desire to not have Russia acquire more territory and behave in an imperialistic manner today
By your logic if a father made love to a mother as a symbolic gesture and didn't intend to have a kid, then it's totally ok to murder the kid 40 years later. Just restoring historical justice, right?
I have a good dozen of friends from Crimea despite visiting Crimea just a few times as a little kid – thousands of young people were forced out of their homes.
The russian logic is very perverted, yet completely predictable. If you are a national minority (even if your 7% claim was true) surrounded by russians, you should leave, and all your belongings should be redistributed among russians.
But if you are a russian minority surrounded by different nations, then everyone around you should learn russian language, respect russian culture, otherwise russian tanks will come. Or maybe they won't, but only for the sake of global stability (otherwise it's justified)
Crimea is a Russian territory that was given to Ukraine by totalitarian non-elected leader Nikita Khrushev. It was a crime done by totalitarian government and Russia restored historical justice.
The only crime regarding Crimea at around that time was Tatar genocide performed by yet another non-elected leader so much beloved and supported by russians.
Beloved still today, because he made/makes them feel superior.
Reminds me a bit of another leader around that same period. He also made his countrymen feel superior. That one is not beloved today anymore, and maybe that's the reason why that population was able to transform into a normal democratic country.
What kind of "peace" would that be? Russia is not interested in peace, or do you have evidence that suggests otherwise?
The peace of Ukraine being neutral? Ukraine was officially neutral in 2014 (law from 2010, pushed by Russia), and see how that went.
So again, what kind of peace are you talking about?
Edit: Let me make the problem very clear:
- Ukraine wants a peace deal where Russia can't invaded again. After their experience with the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, the want hard security guarantees, not just Russian words on a piece of paper.
- Russia wants a peace deal where Ukraine's army is limited, and that doesn't allow foreign troops in Ukraine. Something else is unacceptable for them. In other words, a peace deal that is the perfect setup to invade again.
So again, what kind of peace deal are you talking about?
If you insinuate the current Russian govt is related in spirit with the hitlerian regime, please read a history book that wasn't written by cold war obsessed westerners.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, they were officially neutral (law from 2010, pushed by Russia). At the time of the invasion, there was neither political nor public will to join NATO.
Another fact: Maidan was not about joining NATO, but having equal economic ties to both Russia and EU.
So can you acknowledge that Russia didn't invade Ukraine because of NATO expansion?
Does it sound weird to you that after Russia's invasion in 2014, Ukraine cancelled their neutral status and wanted to join NATO?
Smartphones featuring a fast computer with internet (internet everywhere!), camera, gyroscope, GPS receiver, video player, music player, payment system, gaming console etc in it, and yes, a video phone.
For reference, Nokia 3310 came out in 2000, and the iPod was not available yet.
> so far been living a medieval dream of "the aggressor is far away
As a Western European, I want to give you a different perspective on this. For us, everything behind the iron curtain was Soviet. Then the curtain fell and we saw all these countries like yours, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Baltic states, etc, transition into democracies. While doing that, they lifted their welfare significantly. We had no reason to think Russia wouldn't do the same (why wouldn't they?).
Plus, our neighbor Germany was not the nicest kid on the block in the past, and we also saw them transition into a normal, peace loving nation. So in the end, we had no reason to believe why Russia would stick to something that actually hurts their own lives.
It was very naive, I agree. But only recently, we realized that Russia has no intention to follow the path that central and eastern Europe took.
And yes, I'm ashamed of how little support Europe is giving. I'm sending money out of my own pocket, because I hope every bit helps.
Market cap is pretty hypothetical though - if somebody actually tried to liquidate $50bn of bitcoin into fiat money you'd probably send the BTC price to about zero...
Sure, no. More than a million casualties in this war, it is definitely just 'grey zone' tactics.
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