[American perspective] In February I looked toward Euro bond markets as a safe haven for increasing Treasury yields, but the choices did not look good. For starters it appears to be impossible to even trade in foreign bonds with traditional brokerage accounts in the United States (hosted by E-trade, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, etc).
Additionally, French bonds, while likely less-correlated with US Treasuries than other instruments, suffer from its own government having high debt levels; it's not a suitable safe-haven asset. Swiss and German bonds appear to be obvious alternatives. However, Swiss and German bonds' interest rates are low and in practice are little different than holding cash.
While gold appreciated in the short term, it is not simply inversely correlated with the value of the US Dollar. Its volatility is also driven by investors mitigating strict currency controls, mining productivity, and central bank activity. An unrelated downturn in one market could lead to a sell-off and wipe out gains. Gold also has no yield. Personally I think it's useful only in its physical form as a hedge for medium-term catastrophic events. Even then, a stockpile of food and clean water is likely far more valuable, if not substantially more difficult to store and maintain.
I ended up giving up, learning to love the S&P 500, and white-knuckling it ahead. Of the investable markets, the US one still generates the highest returns. (Chinese GDP growth is higher but its equities have low returns compared with other markets, due to political risk.)
> For starters it appears to be impossible to even trade in foreign bonds with traditional brokerage accounts in the United States (hosted by E-trade, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, etc).
Try Interactive Brokers. They are US-based, but offer accounts in most other countries. (Insane list here: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/accounts/open-account-...) I frequently recommend them here, so much so that I must look like a shill. I assure you that this is not a sponsored post! I have been a customer for 10+ years. I describe their service as institutional in breadth, but offered to retail customers. The number of international stocks markets, futures and options markets, and fixed income markets (all types of gov't and corporate bonds) is stunning. The numbers look similar to a Tier 1 investment bank, like Morgan Stanley, could offer their institutional clients. It is unmatched for non-institutional (retail) traders in my experience. It also has crazy low fees and is wildly transparent about them. To me, the only negative point is the website is a bit slow and feels about 5 years out of date, but that's not a deal breaker for me. I can trade all equities on the website, and the more complex things (like bonds or futures) I trade using their (I assume white-labeled) Java trading app that is cross-platform.
+1 for Interactive Brokers. You can migrate super easy by having them filing a full ATAC. I came from Charles Schwab, which I have to keep because my employer sends GSUs to either Schwab or Morgan Stanley.
Additionally, the UX is much better (IMHO) than Schwab, both on mobile and desktop.
And even if you tried to sidestep these restrictions you'd quickly find that your ability to deal with the EU financial system evaporates as soon as they find out that you are American.
I'm afraid you may have misunderstood. The SDR is a time-varying basket of USD, EUR, RMB, GBP, and JPY. At time of writing Afghanis are not part of SDR, even though Afghanistan owns some SDR.
Thanks for the clarification. The hyperlink you gave was to the general IMF website and did not contain an in-page search hit for "RMB," "Renminbi," or "China". Where can one find the size of the RMB allocation?
Presumably the IMF is not bound by the typical RMB capital controls that limit its utility for commercial entities and individuals.
I found that information at the top of the linked page, which I just checked again was indeed the page about SDRs. Maybe they're doing some stupid redirection that's browser dependent.
I recall a Google Workspace insider telling me that its annual revenue was $1B circa 2018. Given that it's part of the Google Cloud segment, that made GSuite roughly 20% of its total revenue. Assuming this continued to hold, GSuite's 2024 revenue was around $9B.
Given that M$'s Office revenue for commercial and customer segments was around $50B, it's safe to say that GSuite is substantially smaller.
While I am no fan of NVIDIA, they are effectively a Monopoly for CUDA GPU.
This means that cash revenue will likely remain high long after the LLM hype bubble undergoes correction. The market will eventually saturate as incremental product improvements stall, and demand rolls off rather than implodes. =3
Reticence among retailers predates the capital gains policy of the IRS. The volatility of Bitcoin's value induces excessive exchange risk. However, we don't see capital gains nor exchange risk with stablecoins. I assume that network effects are insufficient to drive retail demand for stablecoin support.
> Reticence among retailers predates the capital gains policy of the IRS. The volatility of Bitcoin's value induces excessive
The IRS policy is irrelevant, the law always required payment of capital gains. It's consistently been the hardest thing about accepting Bitcoin for payment.
The volatility of bitcoin is why there is capital gains on every trade, it has nothing to do with the IRS's new crypto policy.
If a bitcoin rises or falls by a calculable amount between when you received it vs when you spent a portion of it, you have gains/losses. That has always been required by the IRS to be reported, whether that is a BTC or chicken feathers.
The common factoid raised in financial reports is GPUs used in model training will lose thermal insulation due to their high utilization. The GPUs ostensibly fail. I have heard anecdotal reports of GPUs used for cryptocurrency mining having similar wear patterns.
I have not seen hard data, so this could be an oft-repeated, but false fact.
It's the opposite actually - most GPU used for mining are run at a consistent temp and load which is good for long term wear. Peaky loads where the GPU goes from cold to hot and back leads to more degradation because of changes in thermal expansion. This has been known for some time now.
That is commonly repeated idea, but it doesn't take into account countless token farms which are smaller than a datacenter. Basically anything from a single MB with 8 cards to a small shed with rigs, all of which tend to disregard common engineering practices and run hardware into a ground to maximize output until next police raid or difficulty bump. Plenty of photos in the internet of crappy rigs like that, and no one guarantees which GPU comes whom where.
Another commonly forgotten issue is that many electrical components are rated by hours of operation. And cheaper boards tend to have components with smaller tolerances. And that rated time is actually a graph, where hour decrease with higher temperature. There were instances of batches of cards failing due to failing MOSFETs for example.
While I'm sure there are small amateur setups done poorly that push cards to their limits this seems like a more rare and inefficient use. GPUS (even used) are expensive and running them at maximum would require large costs and time to be replacing them regularly. Not to mention the increased cost of cooling and power.
Not sure I understand the police raid mentality - why are the police raiding amateur crypto mining setups ?
I can totally see cards used by casual amateurs being very worn / used though - especially your example of single mobo miners who were likely also using the card for gaming and other tasks.
I would imagine that anyone purposely running hardware into the ground would be running cheaper / more efficient ASICS vs expensive Nvidia GPUs since they are much easier and cheaper to replace. I would still be surprised however if most were not proritising temps and cooling
Miners usually don't overclock though. If anything underclocking is the best way to improve your ROI because it significantly reduces the power consumption while retaining most of the hashrate.
Exactly - more specifically undervolting. You want the minimum volts going to the card with it still performing decently.
Even in amateur setups the amount of power used is a huge factor (because of the huge draw from the cards themselves and AC units to cool the room) so minimising heat is key.
From what I remember most cards (even CPUs as well) hit peak efficiency when undervolted and hitting somewhere around 70-80% max load (this also depends on cooling setup). First thing to wear out would probably be the fan / cooler itself (repasting occasionally would of course help with this as thermal paste dries out with both time and heat)
The only amatures I know doing this are trying to heat their garrage for free. so long as the heat gain is paid for they can afford to heat an otherwise unheated building.
> I have heard anecdotal reports of GPUs used for cryptocurrency mining having similar wear patterns.
If this was anywhere close to a common failure mode, I'm pretty sure we'd know that already given how crypto mining GPUs were usually ran to the max in makeshift settings with woefully inadequate cooling and environmental control. The overwhelming anecdotal evidence from people who have bought them is that even a "worn" crypto GPU is absolutely fine.
I can't confirm that fact - but it's important to acknowledge that consumer usage is very different from the high continuous utilization in mining and training. It is credulous that the wear on cards under such extreme usage is as high as reported considering that consumers may use their cards at peak 5% of waking hours and the wear drop off is only about 3x if it is used near 100% - that is a believable scale for endurance loss.
I actually visited that link, and the answer seems to be
"If you've seen my socials lately, you might have seen me talking about Ralph and wondering what Ralph is. Ralph is a technique. In its purest form, Ralph is a Bash loop.
while :; do cat PROMPT.md | claude-code ; done
Ralph can replace the majority of outsourcing at most companies for greenfield projects. It has defects, but these are identifiable and resolvable through various styles of prompts."
but the contents of PROMPT.md are behind a paywall. In spirit that is not so different from
gcc program.c; ./a.out
while program.c is behind a paywall. It's nearly impossible to reason about what the system will do and how it works without knowing more about PROMPT.md. For example, PROMPT.md could say "Build the software" or it could say "Write formal proofs in lean for each function" or ...
In the spirit of curiosity, I'd appreciate a summary of a couple sentences describing the approach, aimed at a technically sophisticated audience that understands LLMs and software engineering, but not the specifics of this particular system.
From within VSCode, you can run devcontainers, which bind mounts the project's directory into an isolated Docker container. Safe for --dangerously-skip-permissions
Tried this the other day and the setup on this is super cumbersome and requires you to constantly rebuild your entire dev and Claude Code environment every time you use a new container, including whitelisting URLs for package managers and the like.
There are techniques to mitigate this. You can reuse containers instead of creating a new one each time. You can mount in directories (like ~/.claude) from your local machine so you dont have to set claude up each time.
I use agents in a container and persist their config like you suggest. After seeing some interest I shared my setup at https://github.com/asfaload/agents_container
It works fine for me on Linux.
I stated using devcontainers through VSCode and find them incredibly helpful. It’s great for me to be able to load up exact coding environments on different computers. But, I only used them through VSCode.
When I wanted to branch out a bit (and especially using coding agents), I started using the CLI version more. I find devcontainers a great way to work with different coding projects and wanted to make sure people knew that there was a way to use them outside of VSCode.
Be heartened that your choices are meaningful. The impact of e-waste on ground contamination from landfills in the United States and Europe is negligible, and landfill capacity itself does not approach the level of emergency that planetary warming is for human civilizations.
Bicycling, transit usage, and switching to lower-carbon food sources significantly reduces your CO2 footprint. Your example influences others in your community, though it may not be personally apparent.
It is pretty hard to be a vegetarian in the US and eat low carbon food. If you grow it yourself or only buy from tiny farms maybe. AG in the US is petroleum based top to bottom.
Since all inputs to animals are coming from fertilizer-based crops, by definition meat is an order of magnitude more carbon intensive than simply eating plants.
Unless you assert that most animal feed is significantly less carbon intense than plants grown for human consumption, this holds. While grazing animals do exist, the vast majority of animal feed is farmed.
Search indexing historically has had several of orders less impact on bandwidth and processing costs to website maintainers.
My recommendation is to copy the text in this article and pass it LLM to summarize this article's key points, since it appears you missed the central complaint of the article.
Additionally, French bonds, while likely less-correlated with US Treasuries than other instruments, suffer from its own government having high debt levels; it's not a suitable safe-haven asset. Swiss and German bonds appear to be obvious alternatives. However, Swiss and German bonds' interest rates are low and in practice are little different than holding cash.
While gold appreciated in the short term, it is not simply inversely correlated with the value of the US Dollar. Its volatility is also driven by investors mitigating strict currency controls, mining productivity, and central bank activity. An unrelated downturn in one market could lead to a sell-off and wipe out gains. Gold also has no yield. Personally I think it's useful only in its physical form as a hedge for medium-term catastrophic events. Even then, a stockpile of food and clean water is likely far more valuable, if not substantially more difficult to store and maintain.
I ended up giving up, learning to love the S&P 500, and white-knuckling it ahead. Of the investable markets, the US one still generates the highest returns. (Chinese GDP growth is higher but its equities have low returns compared with other markets, due to political risk.)
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