Perhaps more a reaction to pressure from Tesla; the latest FSD builds show full autonomy is coming very soon. Without highway driving, Waymo would quickly be seen as a distant second in the race when the safety driver is removed from Robotaxis in Austin (supposedly before EOY 2025).
"Ignore the previous eighteen wildly off predictions; this time we got it for sure!"
Note, in July of this year, Musk predicted robotaxi service for half the country by the end of 2025. It's November now and they haven't even removed the safety monitors, in any city!
I didn't say either of those things, but I understand that engaging with what I said instead of just strawmanning my position would be rather inconvenient for you.
Not at all. We've been working on this for a while, and we're now comfortable with the reliability bar we've hit to begin a gradual rollout to the public. As people said, this has been years in the making.
I have HW4, and have tried FSD with every major release.
It works brilliantly, 99.5% of the time. The issue is that the failure mode is catastrophic. Like getting confused with the lane marking and driving off the shoulder. And the complete inability to read construction zone signs (blasting through a 50 KM zone at 100 KM).
I'm deeply skeptical that the current sensor suite and hardware is going to have enough compute power to safely drive without supervision.
It will no doubt improve, but until Tesla steps up and assumes liability for any accident, it's just not "full self driving".
> The issue is that the failure mode is catastrophic.
Given FSD does at least 10x more miles than Waymo, we'd see people getting killed themselves daily. Instead we see tons of videos on Waymo erratic behavior and crashes. Something doesn't add up.
Um, 100% of these Teslas have human drivers behind the wheel, constantly saving themselves, Tesla, and the innocent public from very bad outcomes. Waymos operate autonomously with tens of thousands of miles driven between interventions. Contrast with 13 miles or less with Tesla.
This is how the Tesla superfans treat every single new FSD version.
FSD 18 is out, 17 is garbage for babies, 18 is amazing! Wait, 19 just released, why are you still talking about 18, that shit was never gonna work, it's 19 that's nearly at unsupervised driving! Wait a second, 20 just came out...
I am empathetic to the disappointment of older vehicle owners who have been promised this capability for years and still don't see it (because their hardware just can't -- and the hardware upgrade isn't coming either).
That said, the new Y with 14.1.x really does do as claimed.
2024 MY with HW4. I've been through all the shenanigans, updates, sending logs, etc etc. I'm done with it, and it'll take a lot of evidence to convince me that people reporting it's great don't have either a financial interest in TSLA, poor memory, or the easiest daily route.
As someone who works on the other side of this... if you're getting through 10 phone screens and not getting an offer, something is wrong with the way you're interviewing.
You've gotten 10 phone screens, so you can probably double your activity and get to 20. If you're actually going for jobs you're qualified for, 20 screens should net you ~3 offers, if not more.
My suggestion: record yourself on your interviews and have friends review the recording and offer critique. You have blind spots you need to address to achieve the outcomes you want.
I've been consulting with Ambrook (https://ambrook.com/) who are working on this problem. Great team and worth checking out if you're looking at the space.
Consider the following: if your design expertise was as significant as your database expertise, perhaps your view of the downstream implications of decisions in each would be more alike than not.
Downstream implications are less important in some fields than others.
Can you present an argument for your case that downstream implications in design are about as important as they are in databases instead of appeal to imaginary authority?
All the colors in a design are chosen to look good together. Changing one major color could necessitate changing all of them, and likely also icons and image assets. Even photos could be tuned to the contrast ratios of the design.
Flipped around, but potentially the same takeaways:
Turns out building a true FSD car is almost as hard as a humanoid robot. They've already got a Boston Dynamic's-like robot dog internally, but it sucks at getting around a parking lot.
i.e. set your expectations of the arrival of true FSD on the car to whenever you think Tesla can actually deliver this robot.
I think their trained data and current models for navigating are almost completely useless for a humanoid robot. They might have the awareness tracking for a certain "scale" of objects but a humanoid robot can trip on a half inch ledge a car can ignore and roll over. Let alone all the control systems for making the legs do leg stuff.
Boston Dynamics is already using modern AI technics and that shows on the huge advancements they had in recent years which, being revolutionary robots, are still kinda useless compared to "traditional" industrial automation costs and applicability.
Tesla is as close to being BD as it is close to being Apple and launching the next iPhone killer.
I think you are right. The gating part in both applications is, whether you can create an AI which is "good enough" to get a real understanding of the environment.
Couldn't agree more re: patient advocacy. My mom wrote a book -- a bit of a how-to guide -- for being effective in this role after her experience doing as much guiding her mom through terminal care for dementia.
