> it's pretty obvious that Claude Opus 4.5 level agents replace developers.
Is it though? I really don't see it.
Replacing developers requires way more than writing the right code. I can agree it can replace junior to mid level engineers at some tasks, specifically in greenfield projects and popular stacks. And, don't get me wrong, it's very helpful even for senior engineers. But to "replace" those it will require some new iterations of "Opus 4.5".
I'm going to be honest because I have nothing to lose; I've never in my entire life met a single senior engineer that can surpass Opus generally. Some can surpass it at problem solving but they aren't common.
Anecdotally, although I'm sure it's happening to more people.
I'm Brazilian, I work in the US on H1-B. I'm on vacations in Brazil with my wife and kids, one in school age.
I also came to renew my visa stamp, as I had my extension approved not long ago.
My visa is valid from September 21st, so, same day as this proclamation takes effect. And I can't go back before that because my visa is not valid.
My flight was scheduled for tomorrow, and I would land in US by Sep 22nd. Of course, I rescheduled that to not lose my ticket.
I left food in the freezer, car in the garage, and my son is missing classes. And all my family's stuff in the house. Now, I have no idea what will happen, I can't go in to get my things. At least the company is giving support, and I couldn't be more thankful.
But the thing that makes me sadder is the blatant racism towards my Indian friends, reddit and x was swarmed by an army of people that was enabled to call them... whatever they want... It's a good time to be offline now.
The H1-B program has its problems, and I understand the whole frustration with the job market, but this is not they way to solve anything.
"On vacation" makes it sounds like workers were just off "having fun" (which of course is their right), but as your story illustrates, many immigrants are required to leave the US for their visa renewals. To be forced to leave the country and then be barred from return by an sudden change in the rules is the most unjust cruelty.
As an American, I'm deeply ashamed by this. I hope you and your family are able to return home soon. Thank you for sharing your story.
With immigration are unquestionably tough decisions, tradeoffs, philosophies on the issue, and demographics in general. It gets heated, fast.
I know I'm biased, but I wish trust had not degraded to such an extent you could believe people could deal with these topics in good faith.
But how can anyone support this kind of craven policymaking where uncertainty and cruelty are features and not bugs?
Just shock and awe and deafening silence.
That's what's so dishearterning. Is that who we are now, or is this just a timely excuse to be who we always have?
The President’s very first speech as a candidate denigrated Mexicans. Xenophobia is his signature issue even more so than tax cuts. 62 million Americans approved this platform in 2016 outvoting 65 million Americans who chose the other candidate.
i did not know until today there is this much anti-immigrant and especially anti-indian sentiment in tech. idk, it was very eye opening and very sad to read those. i am telling myself that people who were posting those things are small in numbers.
It's not surprising really. There needs to be an enemy group, one that some portion of the supporting population has some grievance against. First it's hispanics (illegal immigrants taking your jobs), then trans (men in womens washrooms), then Indians (taking your tech jobs), then it'll be some other group.
It's been a multi-day like conversation where multiple people are trying to obtain the transcripts, publish the text as gospel, and now the video. Like, yes thank you but, holy shit.
> I'm just starting to use Codex Web for asynchronous agents because I have a friend who swears by queueing up a dozen async prompts every morning and sifting through them in the afternoon
Bunch of async prompts for the same task? Or are you parallelizing solving different issues and just reviewing in the afternoon?
I _think_ I’m the friend being referenced. I’m parallelizing solving different issues. Basically I keep an internal swim lane of a variety of projects and just kick off the next task in the lane I think the agent can handle.
Then I do my “real” work, there’s the stuff I don’t trust the agent with, or is more exploratory or whatever.
As I think of more agent tasks doing that I write them down. When I take a break, say for lunch or winding down at the end of the day I check back in on previous tasks and fire off the new ones.
My flow is very similar to what I did with junior eng except I’m willing to fire off even more trivial tasks at the agent because I don’t care if it sits idle. Similarly if it gets way off base I’m happy to kill the pr more aggressively and start over, what do I care if it wasted its time or if it learns a valuable lesson from the experience?
Oh, the savings calculator in your website made me sad, that's the first time I've seen it put that way.
I know it's marketing but props to you for being sincere. At least you're not hiding the intentions of your service (like others).
Yeah, the ROI calculator's target audience is the folks with the checkbook, so it needs to be a dollar figure. My _actual_ hope is that this lets engineers focus on feature work (which is typically more rewarding anyway) without constantly bashing their heads against the tech debt and maintenance work they're effectively barred from performing until it becomes emergent and actively blocking.
None of the small LLMs are good enough yet. You could certainly build a system around local VLMs but it would require much more task specific programming baked in.
I’m certainly interested in building a product (not entirely controlled by an LLM but I see lots of utility in building interfaces with them) but not really sure what this would be useful for. Looking into some spaces now but there has to be a clear ROI to get any sort of funding for robotics.
Instead, think of AI and robotics as incredibly cheap labor that will be available to just about everyone. So you become an entrepreneur, or the manager of a sophisticated network of teams of robots/AI running on a blockchain. Think about how to leverage these systems to provide goods and services.
This doesn't make sense to me... It is a genuine doubt: if you, and everyone else by extent, have the same ability to create a product or service, that can be easily replicated by AI, what value you are creating? What will you sell? Who will want to buy what you're selling if everyone can make the same thing?
I love AI, I use it every single day and wouldn't consider myself a luddite, but... oh, boy... I hate the people that is too bullish on it. Not the people that is working to make the AI happen (although I have my __suspicious people radar__ pointing to __run__ every single time I see Sam Altman face anywhere), but the people that hypes it to ground, the "e/acc" people.
I feel like the crypto-bros just moved from the "all-might decentralized coin god" hype to the "all might tech-god that for sure will be available soon". Looks like a cult or religion is forming around the singularity, and, if I hype it now, it will be generous to me when it takes the control. Oh, and if you don't hype then you're a neo-luddite/doomer and I will look up on you with disdain, as you are a mere peasant.
Also, the get-rich-quick schemes forming around the idea that anyone can have a "1-person-1-billion-dollar" company with just AI, not realizing when anyone can replicate your product then it won't have any value anymore: "ChatGPT just made me this website to help classify if an image is a hot-dog or not! I'll be rich selling it to Nathan's - Oh, what's that? Nathan's just asked ChatGPT to create a hot-dog classifier for them?!"
Not that the other vocal side is not as bad: "AI is useless", "It's not true intelligence", "AI will kill us all", "AI will make everyone unemployed in 6 months!"... But the AI tech-bros side can be more annoying in my personal experience (I'm sure the opposite is true for others too).
All those people are tiring, and making AI tiring for some too... But the tech is fun and will keep evolving and present, rather we are tired of it or not.
Is it though? I really don't see it. Replacing developers requires way more than writing the right code. I can agree it can replace junior to mid level engineers at some tasks, specifically in greenfield projects and popular stacks. And, don't get me wrong, it's very helpful even for senior engineers. But to "replace" those it will require some new iterations of "Opus 4.5".