I'm in Israel. If you turn on the TV lately, you will inevitably hear a bunch of talking heads endlessly analyzing every word Trump said, and the movement of various US military apparatus, and then sharing "expert" insights into when there's going to be an escalation.
I can't do anything about this, except decide when it's time to pack my go-bag and leave it near the door so I'm ready to go to the bomb shelter in middle of the night. To that end, polymarket odds are helpful. I'd never bet any money myself, of course.
In related news, I read recently that the IDF is currently investigating some personnel who evidently made money predicting the last Israel-Iran flare up using inside information. Naturally this is quite unlawful.
> When the printing press came out, I bet there were scribes who thought, "holy shit, there goes my job!" But I bet there were other scribes who thought, "holy shit, I don't have to do this by hand any more?!"
I don't understand this argument. Surely the skill set involved in being a scribe isn't the same as being a printer, and possibly the the personality that makes a good scribe doesn't translate to being a good printer.
So I imagine many of the scribes lost their income, and other people made money on printing. Good for the folks who make it in the new profession, sucks for those who got shafted. How many scribes transitioned successfully to printers?
I would argue that there's a qualitative difference between processing that aims to get the image to the point where it's a closer rendition of how the human eye would have perceived the subject (the stuff described in TFA) vs processing that explicitly tries to make the image further from the in-person experience (removing power lines, people from the background, etc)
Eternal shame and public oppobrium. At minimum, elected officials connected with impropriety should step down, and the public should be so disgusted that they have no hope of ever serving in public office again.
The thing is... All those people were right. We no longer need the kinds of people we used to call programmers. There exists a new job, only semi related, that now goes by the name programmer. I don't know how many of the original programming professionals managed to make the transition to this new progression.
Can you explain how you reached that conclusion? If I'm reading the order book correctly, you'd need much more than 10k to remove all the opposing liquidity. And of course you can't assume that other participants will stand by idly, when you put in enough money to move the market away from what they believe is correct you might discover a lot more contra liquidity appears. So it might not stay where you want it for more than a moment.
That’s cumulative liquidity available on the right hand side.
i.e the ~13k shown at 99c and ~12k show at 98c aren’t independent. If the 12k is taken at 98c, only 1k would be left avail at 99c.
You’re right if you wanted to hold the price there it would cost you more, however if there isn’t a straight arb, maybe not instantly, and (some) smart bettors might be wary of such a market going to near 100%
In the long run, if participants feel they can't ever win because there's always an insider taking advantage, then participants might leave and that's to the detriment of the market. So it might be in the interest of the market to make sure everyone has a fair enough chance. Finding the right balance here is somewhat of an art.
This is similar to the way all football teams benefit from fair referees and even matches, even if sometimes it means they lose.
Also: the point of an exchange is to make money. Different types of exchanges have different fee structures, but generally their profit is a function of volume, so there primary objective is to attract volume. Since every trade / bet requires two participants, they need to balance the needs of both participants to make it work. Price discovery is a positive side effect of efficient and fair markets, which is why as a society we like them and encourage them, but it isn't what they are trying to achieve except inasmuch as it encourages participation.
> In the long run, if participants feel they can't ever win because there's always an insider taking advantage, then participants might leave and that's to the detriment of the market.
In the US, there's no general rule that protects you against trading against someone with insider information. Mostly what's forbidden is an employee X of company Y trading on her own account; but if X acts on behalf of Y, they can go crazy.
For you on the other side of the trade, it doesn't really matter whether you sell your Standard Oil stock to someone officially acting on behalf of Berkshire Hathaway who knows that next week Warren Buffett will announce that they are going to buy Standard Oil, or whether you are selling your stock to someone who has the same information, but is not officially authorised by Berkshire Hathaway.
Yet, people still trade in the stock market just fine.
I would suggest as a retail investor you shouldn't buy individual stocks anyway: just buy an index fund.
Until fairly recently, there was no rule against insider trading in commodities in the US, and people still traded them.
In any case, your arguments suggest that exchanges should be able to decide whether they want to allow insider trading, and companies should be allowed to decide which exchange they want to list at (so they can indirectly decide whether to allow insider trading). No need for a blanket one-size-fits-none rule.
If you're willing to invest ten minutes and a tenth of a cent, you can spin up a virtual server in an American server farm and set up a SOCKS proxy with `ssh -D 8080 -nNT <user>@<host>`. Then in the Network Settings dialogue (at the bottom of General Settings), Firefox will let you proxy your traffic through it.
I guess it depends on who reads it but I don't see any issue with it. FWIW - I'm not a recruiter it manager but I've been an interviewer at various tech companies.
My impression from the resume is that she's relatively junior with limited experience, but not zero, and her experience is in unsexy tech stacks, and she did a bootcamp. So she is fighting am uphill battle in a tough market. But I don't get the impression that she's unprofessional or immature because of the whimsical website.
I'm any case, I wish her luck, and I believe that there are roles out there that would be a good fit for her and she can gain more experience. She just needs that first break... Which is hard to get
Did you read her website on your phone or your computer? It looks mostly fine on the phone (the CV page at least) but it is really bad on any larger screen.
I can't do anything about this, except decide when it's time to pack my go-bag and leave it near the door so I'm ready to go to the bomb shelter in middle of the night. To that end, polymarket odds are helpful. I'd never bet any money myself, of course.
In related news, I read recently that the IDF is currently investigating some personnel who evidently made money predicting the last Israel-Iran flare up using inside information. Naturally this is quite unlawful.
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