Dota 2 is a real time strategy game with an arguably more complex micro game (but a far simpler macro game than AoE2, but that's far easier for an AI to master), and OpenAI Five completely destroyed the reigning champions. In 2019. Perfect coordination between units, superhuman mechanical skill, perfect consistency.
I see no reason why AoE2 would be any different.
Worth noting that openAI Five was mostly deep reinforcement learning and massive distributed training, it didn't use image to text and an LLM for reasoning about what it sees to make its "decisions". But that wouldn't be a good way to do an AI like that anyway.
Oh, and humans still play Dota. It's still a highly competitive community. So that wasn't destroyed at all, most teams now use AI to study tactics and strategy.
> especially silly to lug that around if 90% of your trips are in battery range
The same argument works for large batteries, right? On 90% of your trips, you're lugging around several hundred pounds of battery you're not using.
If you want to tackle the weight argument, you could always drop 40 kWh battery capacity from the truck. That frees up around 600 lbs you can now use for the genset.
The maintenance thing is a real problem, of course. A 50 kW genset that almost never runs will be much better on mainenance than a classic ICE car, but still add significant maintenance cost to a BEV.
Which is part of why I think Range is often a distraction in EV discussions. The people asking for 600+ mile Range EVs may see those built because it always sounds like there are plenty of people "demanding" that, but the weight trade-off in batteries isn't going to make those great cars, most of that range will be "waste" given average trips. But it is easier to get to 600+ miles of range by adding more (and better) batteries than by making larger gas tanks and engines.
> my bet is it's almost identical to the BEV version but with an engine where the big beautiful frunk is now
Would be interesting how small and how cheap you can design a ~50kW genset to be (any smaller and you don't gain that highly coveted towing range). I don't think it's an easy task, you still need to integrate the crash compliant fuel tank, the emissions compliant exhaust system, water cooling for the engine, ect.
It's a pretty long BOM you're adding to an already expensive BEV, so you don't really have thousands of dollars of budget to add to the production cost.
> It's a pretty long BOM you're adding to an already expensive BEV, so you don't really have thousands of dollars of budget to add to the production cost.
Agreed. And I don't think it will be cheaper. The Lightning was already selling for less than the comparable ICE equivalent, there is no way they will sell the Lightning EREV at the same price point after adding a generator along with the associated supporting parts. I bet it will be at least 10K more, and I won't be shocked if it's closer to 20K.
If I had to bet; they'll put their 3.7L V6 in and run it on the miller cycle with a fixed drive to hit @130+kW or so.
The changes for cooling, etc. will be substantial, but the problem space is already well-known by the team, so the time to market probably won't be as long as we think.
That's probably a quick way to do it, but considering that using a miller cycle means we're going to want the turbo version of the engine, that alone is going to cost like $4k on Fords end. Add a 100kW+ generator with the power electronics to charge while driving, fuel system, exhaust system and cooling system, and we're probably approaching $10k upcharge for the customer.
Gotta remove a whole lot of batteries from that car to make it cost competitive again. Realistically, with an engine this powerful, we can probably cut down to like 30kWh of total battery capacity, which gets us back to where we started financially. And 30 kWh is enough to drive 70 miles all electric, which should pretty much should cover most daily use for people who charge at home.
Now, the questions if we can do that cheaper with a much smaller engine. Ford has a 1 liter inline 3 in the Fiesta and Focus that makes half as much power. Should be enough...
The dreamers amongst us have noted that Ford has a patent (at least an application for one, I don't recall if it was granted) for putting an EREV generator under the bed near the back of the truck. Since it can be a smaller engine and does not require an attachment to the drivetrain, maybe this is feasible.
If they did that, it would remove one of my reasons for not being too interested in the Lightning EREV -- the anticipated loss of the frunk. It still introduces a bunch of mechanical bits and associated maintenance requirements, that is unavoidable, along with a substantial increase in cost.
I bought my Lightning with the intent of keeping it 7-8 years, and it meets my needs very well, so this is mostly just navel gazing for me. The EREV version would have more range that I would rarely benefit from, and be substantially less powerful, which is also a negative from my perspective, in addition to costing a bunch more. My current truck is by far my favorite so far. I hope when I'm finally ready to try something new, there are better options. It's a high bar.
> I would feel very uncomfortable towing an empty 4x6 trailer behind my sedan, not to even mention the occasional couch or dresser or bunch of boxes from helping a friend move.
Why? 1500 lbs rated tow hook on an average sedan should be no problem at all. And that's more than enough for a 4x6 with a couch and a couple of boxes. Might even get a slightly larger trailer so you don't have to take the couch apart.
I've towed 14' sailboats including all gear behind a Corolla, didn't even feel the trailer was there.
I bought a used "regular" F-150 with an 8-foot bed about the last year that made sense, and when the frame finally rusted out and it could no longer pass inspection, the prices of used trucks was insane, and most of what was available was a lot of luxuries I didn't want to pay for.[0]
So I replaced it with a 5x8 trailer, which anymore gets pulled behind a Chevy Volt. I'd hesitate to load it to the max and take it on the thruway, but for most of my tasks it's actually more convenient than the truck. Loading up a riding lawn mower or a few hundred pounds of scrap metal is way easier with it being closer to the ground, and I'm mostly driving 10-15 miles over back roads so if I'm worried the load is too heavy for the compact car I don't mind taking it a little slow.
Also, it's convenient to load it while it's unhooked, piling in garbage and debris over a week or a weekend and then hooking it up to run to the dump; likewise, just unhooking the trailer full of construction materials and (weather permitting) just unloading it as you build.
I occasionally miss being able to drive it into the woods, but to be honest not being able to parallel park the trailer is a bigger inconvenience than not being able to off-road it.
[0] Since having kids I've come around on the second-row-of-seats/short bed trade-off; not being able to pick up dimensional lumber with kids in tow is way more limiting in my current phase of life than not being able to fit it in the bed with the tailgate up.
It's at least as much about being able to stop it as it is being able to pull it. An loaded utility trailer with no trailer brakes on a wet road is going to jacknife in any kind of emergency stop, and the brakes on a Corolla are going to be challenged to do it even on a dry road.
I don't know the specifics but the US has some sort of strict requirement on Towing, such that vehicles like hatchbacks and sedans that have ubiquitous 1500lb towing ratings in Europe are not rated to tow at all in the US.
People mostly still do it though, because it's cheap and easy to do.
I towed heavily loaded trailers - stuffed with books, tools, furniture, the trailer was loaded to the roof and I couldn't get up steep San Franscisco hills - to and from Alaska, and across the entire United States.
With an Impreza.
That included highways in the Yukon that were more river rock than gravel, backwoods of Montana and Wyoming, you name it.
It was totally fine. Especially in a Subaru, with AWD and a low well centered center of gravity. I'd do it again.
Just because. It's a Malibu, its tow rating is don't. I'm sure I could, but its not worth jeopardizing a $25,000 cars' drive train to potentially save about $600/year in insurance and tags and fuel for the truck.
> Something that will change in the next century. I'm curious how that will affect shipping. I'm imagining it won't have much impact on container shipping
No, on the contrary! The effect on container shipping will be absolutely massive with the Northeast Passage opening up. It's going to cut thousands of miles off shipping routes, since its the much shorter route from American East Coast ports and the Euros to Asia.
Yeah, ultra high voltage DC power lines have something like 3.5% loss per 1000km. American sun belt to European sun belt is at least 6000km, so you just gotta eat the 20% loss. Same ballpark as pumped hydro storage.
6000km sounds like a lot, but the Chinese have built a 3000km UHVDC line delivering 12 GW, and putting down submarine communications cables this long is complete routine today. Would be interesting how much aluminium/lead/copper such a project would take. EDIT: found a supplier that specifies a 1GW cable at 7000 tons per spool. A spool is 130km of cable, so that's 350 000 tons of cable per GW for the transatlantic link. So just the raw aluminium is around a billion dollars per GW.
Anyway, first we have to properly connect those two sun belts to the rest of their own continental masses with UHVDC, then we have a lot of political problems to solve, and then we can check battery prices...
Pretty sure that was scientists competing for 6 month training runs of new 100B+ parameter models, not coders burning through a couple of million tokens.
German police have a what amounts to a dyno mounted on a truck bed, and they pull over suspicious cars and sound check them while an officer goes through the gears on the dyno.
Failing that test is expensive, and you don't see your car again for a few weeks. They revoke your permission to operate the vehicle on public roads, so in addition to the fine, you face fees (towing, storage of car in evidence locker, towing your car to a shop after getting it back in order to make it street legal, then redoing the road-worthiness certification).
Police in the US can just give people a faulty equipment ticket based on their perception of it being too loud or visually modified.
But you are not likely to see this enforced outside of rich quiet neighborhoods where police don't have anything better to attend to. Culturally, sentiment in the US does not want the law coming down hard on drivers and their vehicles. For instance, most US states do not even require vehicles to be safety inspected. And in urban areas the police have worse infractions to be going after.
Ah yes, nothing quiets the streets like the police literally running a damn dyno roadside on an elevated platform for the loudest vehicles they think they can find, which by itself would likely also make the police violators of the law since they are the one operating the vehicle in public at the time of the sound infraction they have induced.
Noise control laws typically exempt law enforcement and first responders, for obvious reasons. e.g. their vehicles have devices installed that are intentionally noisy: sirens.
> Ah yes, nothing quiets the streets like the police literally running a damn dyno
It would be bad only if it didn't result in decrease of loud vehicles. If they run the dyno and impound vehicle, it means that this loud vehicle won't be coming back this street for some time.
If the police take my car and make loud noises with it, all that means is the police can potentially make loud noises with my car. Not that I personally made loud noises.
The only provable noise polluter in that case is the police.
I'm sure they could also put my car on a dyno and prove it could go 100mph on the 30mph street I was on too.
Presumably for a car to be sold from factory and registered by owner as street legal in Germany, it must not be able to make loud noises under reasonable operation — specifically, driven like someone would drive a car (up to 100% throttle, up to redline rpm) but not attempting to maliciously create problems (fuzzing the pedal inputs for backfire scenarios from factory). If the police are able to reasonably operate it on a dyno to create an illegal condition, then either it has a mechanical defect, an owner modification, or a design defect; and in all three cases, the vehicle would presumably therefore not be street legal, as proven on the roadside dyno. The loophole you’re describing wouldn’t hold up in front of a judge anywhere at first glance: “I don’t ever push the gas pedal that far down in my fancy sports car designed/modded to accelerate loudly when I push the gas pedal that far down” is not a particularly convincing argument when one is found to be operating said vehicle. A more convincing argument would be, “the pedal inputs by the police were improper for operation of a vehicle and do not conform to the training given to roadside dyno operators”; and, presumably dyno logs and body cam of the operator are available to defeat that as well. And arguing that the training itself is improperly having police operate the vehicle through all factory-provided regimes would almost certainly fail (even in the U.S. were such roadside dynos a thing here!), but if your case was that the training needs to be improved in a specific way rather than for termination of the roadside dyno program, you might get traction with that.
One assumes this process is generally reserved for vehicles whose driving has earned them a dyno inspection, as it would induce mockery were they to e.g. dyno an old beaten-up Geo Metro without cause, and that the fines are directed towards either the vehicle owner and/or manufacturer, as circumstances require, as the responsible parties for its mechanical-design and/or aftermarket-modded violations of the law. (I am not your lawyer, this is not legal advice.)
That does not really prove much. Not really clear the charges the fed had were well thought out. The general sovereign citizen test always fails because those folks still want to participate in society.
Of course it holds no merit when the law is written such that merely having the capability of loud noise is an offense, and the method by which you are convicted is the police do the thing they say is bad and then damn you for the thing they themselves just did for the purpose of convicting you.
Oh I am well aware. "Society" takes the things you have, uses them against you, then shits on you for the thing they have just done. Thus is how taxes are born.
But as it turns out, the government isn't society, and the law isn't what's right.
> existing grid scale battery round trip is like 82% which do not have moving parts.
This is incorrect for a lot of containerized lithium systems. They have a lot of moving parts in their AC systems - the compressors, the fans, the cooling water pumps.
Lithium cells really don't like to be hot. If you put them next to solar farms in the sun belt or if you discharge them moderately quickly, you'll have to cool them. This cooling system also eats into the overall efficiency, but what's even worse is that its the majority of the maintenance budget.
I see no reason why AoE2 would be any different.
Worth noting that openAI Five was mostly deep reinforcement learning and massive distributed training, it didn't use image to text and an LLM for reasoning about what it sees to make its "decisions". But that wouldn't be a good way to do an AI like that anyway.
Oh, and humans still play Dota. It's still a highly competitive community. So that wasn't destroyed at all, most teams now use AI to study tactics and strategy.
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