What I did not realize until going back in time was how these German reparations are dragging on and on.
Armistice is signed in 1918, and reparations are agreed upon in late 1919. In 1920, the payment plans are put forth. By 1921, it's clear Germany can't repay in full. For the next 3-4 years, the entire calamity will stumble in fits and starts. Until the US gets involved in the mid-1920s (Dawes and Young Plans).
Even then, war reparations aren't completely paid back until 2010.
It reminds me a lot of the Greek situation in the 2010s. Three bailouts, several different rounds of negotiations, etc.
I'm not sure things have really gotten faster. The increased communication rate might be balanced out by the higher inertia of a more interconnected global economy. I feel like the ripples from 2008 are still catching up with us -- look at how interest rates have been cranked low ever since. That's thirteen years.
There aren’t, actually, at least not in the US. When an account has no activity on it for long enough, it gets liquidated and transferred to the state until someone with a rightful ownership claim comes forward to claim it. This is called “escheatment.”
The market sentiment in 1921 was very bad for stocks. In fact, a week ago in 1921, Andrew Mellon (Treasury Secretary) suggested retail investors avoid stocks. This was covered in my post last week.
Sentiment is going to flip around 1923-1924 (once we clear the 1920 top) and only strengthen into 1929.
@roaring20s I have read through all of your current Substack articles and would love to catch up on your own background and data sources. I think pre-computer data extraction powers the best ML insights.
I am working at a YC Fintech company exploring economic opportunity over time and think there are some deep relationships here around human psychology and markets.
