This was probably the first article on hacker news that actually had some type of business impact for me, so thanks for posting!!! Have already added Origin Shield and it's made somewhat of a speed boost
Hate to break it to you and your relatively high paid friends but that bodega cashier is spending an hour on the subway both ways from their current working class neighborhood. Furthermore, half of that persons salary is going to groceries due to inflation. There has to be a breaking point at where NYC will hit stagflation and hopefully all useless instagram coffee shops will be hit by "market conditions".
OKRs written properly drive business and development initiatives. They should be boiled down to the smallest team so that they can make a big impact on the business while not doing worthless dev work.
Used an abbreviated version to of the kelly criterion along with Markowitz portfolio optimization and applied it to sports betting. All I can say is that past results do not indicate future returns
The part that all these nice theories miss is that you actually do not know the distribution p(win) (in the case of Kelly) or the expected return and covariance (in the case of Markowitz).
Well 'knowing' the 'true probability' is a philosophical can of worms anyway.
The good news is that you don't need to know it exactly, you just need to make a better guess than the bookies (w.r.t. the Kullback Leibler divergence or cross-entropy, whichever takes your fancy).
The fact that Black-Scholes has only one unknowable parameter makes it quite usable, more so than more complicated option pricing models. You can work backwards from the market price to solve for the implied volatility, treating it as a generalized 'price' for the option after factoring out things that are easily adjusted for. You can also abuse the implied volatility (adjusting it up or down) to account for factors outside of the idealized model.
You can’t pinpoint probabilities of many things that make the world run everyday, you can’t even pinpoint probabilities of things that happen in your personal life. It’s useful to at least know some mechanics behind these arcane things rather than completely disregarding them because you don’t fully know their distributions.
That's something of a moot argument, though, since BSM computes prices in terms of the future volatility. Since we have the actual price, the volatility is actually what we solve for with BSM.
Even if we had neither price nor volatility, we can still talk about the surface of possible (price, volatility) pairs which are compatible with the model.
Yeah, basically. Also need the strike, spot, an estimate of the risk free rate (probably not today).
The implied vol is a useful way to make sense of the actual market prices of options. We also might have some predictions about the market's implied vol changing going forward and we can reverse those errors back into expected price changes (and maybe trade on them).
I've built a website to help restaurants out in this time. It's called Expoed. https://expoed.restaurant
The idea is that restaurants offer reservation time slots, reserved parking spots, a menu item named after you, or really anything they want in exchange for money from diners. Ultimately, it provides another source of revenue for restaurants during these tough times.
I am glad he is expanding remote work as it can be beneficial to companies who need it and motivate workers morale; however, working remotely full time is not always the greatest if you do not have other priorities in your life.
For example, for my first job out of college, I was placed in a team where my manager was working in a different city, and half the team was in a timezone 12 hours ahead. It was great if I wanted to leave at 3 or come into work at 10, but man, it was isolating as a new hire coming into the office and not speaking a word to anyone or interacting with anyone on my team while other teams around me had productive meetings or team lunches. Working remotely in this case did not give myself any extra motivation to work for the team or help the team because I did not know them personally. Maybe there are other ways to work remotely and still foster this camaraderie, but I find it hard to see when most conversations are phone calls where people looking into their computer screens.
I had the same experience when I first started working remotely, I would go a couple of days in a row without talking to anybody at work because everyone had there own thing they were working on. Another coworker left his remote job after 7 months because he felt so lonely that he ended up working at bars and coffee shops with free wifi just so he could have normal human interaction. I'm at a new remote job, and my solution to loneliness has been hanging around in smaller twitch channels talking to streamers and regular viewers. I get less work done, but I don't feel like a miserable piece of a machine now.
> I get less work done, but I don't feel like a miserable piece of a machine now.
Why don't you just do that work faster without being on twitch, and then use the extra hours to go outside and participate in an actual community or engage in some more gratifying activity?
That's a great solution, and I think too companies realize that by people working remotely, they are sacrificing 100% total productivity. Another thing that I did was explain my situation to management to transfer me to a new thing and explain the isolation that I was feeling. It also does not help that when I was working remotely, I was expected to work the standard work day hours. The problem with that was that you do not get the benifits of doing a hobby spontaneously because you are expected to be on call or available at those hours.
