You can use fuzzy numbers to get varied output, and if you want to do MC you can use the API into your model to call it with whatever distributions you want and aggregate the output. But no, our UI doesn’t natively support doing a MC sim because the demand is frankly less than you’d expect. :)
The exercise of modeling your business helps you become aware of all that you don’t know, which helps you stay humble and curious and focused on answering the right questions.
The Babe Ruth effect of VC's needing big hits and the entire industry being a hits-driven business (unicorns, PG's Black Swan Farming, etc.) is a relic of the VC industry being not-long-tail compatible (i.e. offline).
This will change, and more money will be made in the fat long tail than the hits.
Re: "By binding the payback to profit" -- but it isn't bound to profit. Re-read the terms. It's Founder Earnings, which is profit PLUS any founder salary above a 'low but fair' threshold. You can be breakeven or below zero and still have shareable earnings with a SEAL if you are making a market rate (not low but still fair).
I spent days thinking this through and would be happy to explore your objections in a higher-fidelity forum or longer-form format than HN comments.
For now, suffice to say I have no incentive to mislead founders.
Yes, absolutely. The key question in my mind still (after finishing the article) is what startups actually WOULD be smart to take money on these terms (what kind of business model, unit economics, and growth trajectory would they have to have for it to make sense).
My guess is it's a narrower slice of the startup population than Earnest intends. And my prediction is they will update their terms to broaden the slice.
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You can use fuzzy numbers to get varied output, and if you want to do MC you can use the API into your model to call it with whatever distributions you want and aggregate the output. But no, our UI doesn’t natively support doing a MC sim because the demand is frankly less than you’d expect. :)