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I couldn't agree more. I'll probably switch from React to something like ArrowJS in my personal work:

https://www.arrow-js.com/docs/

It makes it easy to have a central JSON-like state object representing what's on the page, then have components watch that for changes and re-render. That avoids the opaqueness of Redux and promise chains, which can be difficult to examine and debug (unless we add browser extensions for that stuff, which feels like a code smell).

I've also heard heard good things about Astro, which can wrap components written in other frameworks (like React) so that a total rewrite can be avoided:

https://docs.astro.build/en/guides/imports/

I'm way outside my wheelhouse on this as a backend developer, so if anyone knows the actual names of the frameworks I'm trying to remember (hah), please let us know.

IMHO React creates far more problems than it solves:

  - Virtual DOM: just use Facebook's vast budget to fix the browser's DOM so it renders 1000 fps using the GPU, memoization, caching, etc and then add the HTML parsing cruft over that
  - Redux: doesn't actually solve state transfer between backend and frontend like, say, Firebase
  - JSX: do we really need this when Javascript has template literals now?
  - Routing: so much work to make permalinks when file-based URLs already worked fine 30 years ago and the browser was the V in MVC
  - Components: steep learning curve (but why?) and they didn't even bother to implement hooks for class components, instead putting that work onto users, and don't tell us that's hard when packages like react-universal-hooks and react-hookable-component do it
  - Endless browser console warnings about render changing state and other errata: just design a unidirectional data flow that detects infinite loops so that this scenario isn't possible
I'll just stop there. The more I learn about React, the less I like it. That's one of the primary ways that I know that there's no there there when learning new tools. I also had the same experience with the magic convention over configuration in Ruby.

What's really going on here, and what I would like to work on if I ever win the internet lottery (unlikely now with the arrival of AI since app sales will soon plummet along with website traffic) is a distributed logic flow. In other words, a framework where developers write a single thread of execution that doesn't care if it's running on backend or frontend, that handles all state synchronization, preferably favoring a deterministic fork/join runtime like Go over async behavior with promise chains. It would work a bit like a conflict-free replicated data type (CRDT) or software transactional memory (STM) but with full atomicity/consistency/isolation/durability (ACID) compliance. So we could finally get back to writing what looks like backend code in Node.js, PHP/Laravel, whatever, but have it run in the browser too so that users can lose their internet connection and merge conflicts "just work" when they go back online.

Somewhat ironically, I thought that was how Node.js worked before I learned it, where maybe we could wrap portions of the code to have @backend {} or @frontend {} annotations that told it where to run. I never dreamed that it would go through so much handwaving to even allow module imports in the browser!

But instead, it seems that framework maintainers that reached any level of success just pulled up the ladder behind them, doing little or nothing to advance the status quo. Never donating to groups working from first principles. Never rocking the boat by criticizing established norms. Just joining all of the other yes men to spread that gospel of "I've got mine" to the highest financial and political levels.

So much of this feels like having to send developers to the end of the earth to cater to the runtime that I question if it's even programming anymore. It would be like having people write the low-level RTF codewords in MS word rather than just typing documents via WYSIWYG. We seem to have all lost our collective minds ..the emperor has no clothes.


> I also had the same experience with the magic convention over configuration in Ruby.

I'm not sure what this is a reference to? Is it actually about Rails?


Ya I used Rails on an aging project for about 6 months and there was so much magic behavior that we couldn't effectively trace through the code, so debugging even the simplest issue took days. Also the happy path mostly ran fine, but we couldn't answer even the simplest questions about the code or make estimations when something went wrong, because we couldn't isolate the source of truth in its convention-dominated codebase.

I come from a C++ background and mostly use PHP/Laravel today, and even though it does things less "efficiently" than the syntactic sugar in Ruby or low-level optimizations in .NET, I find that its lack of magic makes for much higher productivity in the long run. IMHO it feels like Ruby solves the easiest problems with sugar and then glosses over the hardest problems like they don't exist. So I just can't tell what problems it actually solves.

Generally, I think that cleverness was popular in the 2010s but has fallen out of fashion. A better pattern IMHO works more like Cordova or scripting in video games, where native plugins or a high-performance engine written in a language like Swift or Rust is driven by a scripting language like Javascript or Lua. Or better yet, driven declaratively by HTML or no-code media files that encode complex behavior like animations.

Of course all of this is going away with AI, and I anticipate atrociously poorly-written codebases that can't be managed by humans anymore. Like we might need pair programming just to take a crack at fixing something if the AI can't. I'm always wrong about this stuff though, so hopefully I'm wrong about this.


For a single page of HTML, ArrowJS's site loads really slow. I sat for almost a full second on just the header showing.


Yikes I didn't know that! I haven't actually used it yet hah.

For a bit of context, I come from writing blitters on 8 MHz Mac Plusses, so I have a blind spot around slowness. Basically, that nothing should ever be slow today with GHz computers. So most slowness isn't a conceptual flaw, but an inefficient implementation.

These alternative frameworks are generally small enough that it might be kind of fun to stress test them and contribute some performance improvements. Especially with AI, I really have no excuse anymore.

Edit: after pondering this for 2 seconds, I suspect that it's actually a problem with backend requests. It may have some synchronous behavior (which I want) or layout dependency issues that force it to wait until all responses have arrived before rendering. That's a harder problem, but not insurmountable. Also things like this irk me, because browsers largely solved progressive layout in the 1990s and we seem to have lost that knowledge.


> do we really need this when Javascript has template literals now

yea? JSX is much more than templating.


But then there are packages like htm that are doing basically the same thing with just tagged templates.


Nobody is using Redux any more, and it's even publically discouraged by the creator. It's a legacy system and including it in your problems list just makes me think you have no React experience and no idea what you are talking about (beyond technical yapping also Redux as a product still achieved what it tried to solve so your dx doesn't even matter).

Firebase in this context is just a database and how you poll data on client or server from it. Nonsensical reference again.


Hi. I'm the current Redux maintainer, and have been since Dan handed it over to me in mid-2016, one year after he created Redux. It's also worth noting that Dan never used Redux on a real app (that I know of), whereas I've spent years maintaining Redux and Redux Toolkit and designing APIs based on the needs of our users.

Redux is still by far the most widely-used state management library in React apps. Some of that _is_ legacy usage, sure. But, our modern Redux Toolkit package has ~30M downloads a month. Zustand has become very popular as a client-side state option, and React Query is now the default standard data fetching tool, but you can see that even just RTK is still right up there in monthly NPM downloads:

- https://npm-stat.com/charts.html?package=redux&package=%40re...

I've frequently talked about the original reasons for Redux's creation, which of those are still relevant, and why Redux is still a very valid option to choose even for greenfield projects today:

- https://blog.isquaredsoftware.com/2024/07/presentations-why-...


I love reading this while my boss is pushing "redux everything" as the next step in our (React 17) codebase...


Ya I really like their airship to orbit concept. I asked AI about lift to drag (L/D) ratios in plasma at 10,000-17,5000 mph (5-8 km/s) and it suggested that lifting bodies achieve between about a 1:1 and 3:1 L/D ratio. If we assume the generous 3:1 L/D ratio, that would seem to make a single-stage to orbit space plane possible.

A bit off-topic, but an aerospike engine is half of a rocket nozzle, with a virtual half created by the supersonic shockwave. So we could envision a retractable nozzle half that moves through subsonic, transonic and supersonic modes to power the airship.

Also the SABRE engine uses (according to AI) 16,800 thin-walled tubes filled with liquid hydrogen to cool ambient air to -238 F (-150 C or 123 K) in 10 milliseconds so that it can be compressed up to 140 atmospheres and fed into a combined-cycle engine. That would allow it to be air-breathing up to mach 5.4 (3,600 mph or 1.6 km/s) and transition to liquid oxygen after leaving the atmosphere.

I also asked it about using something like titanium to withstand the heat of exiting the atmosphere (since the titanium SR-71 reached mach 3+) but it said that it can't withstand a high enough temperature. So an ablative coating might need to be applied between launches. Quite a bit of research was done for that through about the 1970s before NASA chose the space shuttle with its reusable tiles.

It seems like most of the hard work has already been done to achieve this. So I don't really understand why so many billions of dollars get devoted to other high-risk ventures like SpaceX. When for a comparatively smaller amount of money, a prototype spaceplane could be built. I'm guessing that the risk/reward value just wasn't proven yet. But really shouldn't VC money chase the biggest bet?

This is the kind of stuff that I went down rabbit holes for when I dreamed of winning the internet lottery. Now that AI is here, I can feel the opportunity for that slipping away. A more likely future is the democratization of problem solving, where everyone knows everything, but has little or no money and doesn't want to pay for anything. So really not much different from today. So maybe it's better to let these half-baked ideas go so that someone else can manifest them.


Pretty sure it's Scott Manley that did an episode on the aerospike and just how hard they are to get to work right.

Needless to say, getting anything to go to space is hard.


Aerospikes are hard because you cant control the external pressure. At altitude A you have X atmospheric pressure, but at altitude B, Y pressure, that pressure is what keeps the exhaust against the surfave and exerting force, you can only design an aerospike for a certain effecient operational altitude and outside of that its just not great.

A nozzle engine doesnt have to account for this as much because the nozzle is keeping the pressure of the exhaust


Nozzle engines absolutely have to account for the external pressure. The optimal pressure as the exhaust leaves the bell should be as close as possible to ambient for full thrust.

If the pressure at exhaust is higher than ambient, the exhaust pushes outward against the ambient pressure and you get huge exhaust plumes, and lost efficiency.

Conversely, if the pressure at exhaust is lower, the ambient pressure pushes the exhaust inward into shock diamonds[1] and you, again, lose efficiency.

Engine bells specifically yield their max efficiency at one external pressure/altitude. The reason you see shock diamonds is most often from ground-level testing (or takeoff) of engines that perform best at altitude.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_diamond


Airship To Orbit is JP Aerospace, not Bigelow. It seems like an utterly bonkers and fairly implausible concept and I'm definitely not equipped to analyze its merits. But the JP team have some legitimate accomplishments in the rockoon world, and appear to be honest, hardworking people. Definitely not grifters. I've been following their work on ATO since they first announced it at a Space Access conference in ... 2003, I think? Still can't figure out whether it's real or not.


Yeah, airship to orbit might still be a question mark, but there is a significant overlap in other useful areas.

You should be for example totally able to build an inflatable frame for a launch loop, making it possible to launch payloads from above most of the atmosphere.

Also for re-entry the more you lower the density of something, the less re-entry stresses there will be. So you could construct a giant low-pressure inflatable decelerator device and have it essentially float down all the way from orbit, incrementally shedding energy as it comes down over a longer period of time, taking care to balance the rate of descent, heating and internal/external pressures.


Oh hah, thanks, I don't usually make mistakes like that! I guess the two were wired together in my brain.


Here's another one: Manna - Two Views of Humanity’s Future, by Marshall Brain. It's a fairly light read, just 8 chapters:

https://marshallbrain.com/manna1

I think I've internalized these stories enough to comfortably say (without giving anything away) that AI is incompatible with capitalism and probably money itself. That's why I consider it to be the last problem in computer science, because once we've solved problem solving, then the (artificial) scarcity of modern capitalism and the social darwinism it relies upon can simply be opted out of. Unless we collectively decide to subjugate ourselves under a Star Wars empire or Star Trek Borg dystopia.

The catch being that I have yet to see a billionaire speak out against the dangers of performative economics once machines surpass human productivity or take any meaningful action to implement UBI before it's too late. So on the current timeline, subjugation under an Iron Heel in the style of Jack London feels inevitable.


> take any meaningful action to implement UBI

I hear this all the time, but to what end? If the input costs to produce most things ends up driving towards zero, then why would there be a need for UBI? Wouldn't UBI _be_ the performative economics mentioned?


I think of it like limits in math. The rate at which we'll be out of work is much higher than the rate at which prices will fall towards zero.

A performative/underemployment economy keeps everyone working not out of necessity, but to appease the sentiments of the wealthy. I'd argue that we passed the point at which wages were tied to productivity sometime around 1970, meaning that we're already decades into a second Gilded Age where wealth comes from inheritance, investment and connections (forms of luck) rather than hard work.

And honestly, to call UBI performative when billionaires are trying to become trillionaires as countless people die of starvation every day just doesn't make any sense.


I just want to say that it's refreshing to stumble onto someone commenting in the same style that I do. Where most people see things that are good enough, hard to fix or innovative, I see things for their fatal flaws, how they should have been done right from the start and why they are obvious. So I'll just add my list of gripes about TCP that in many ways ruined the internet for decades, and maybe still do:

  - TCP should have been a reliability layer above UDB, not beside it (made P2P harder than it should be, mainly burdening teleconferencing and video games)
  - Window size field bytes should have been arbitrary length
  - Checksum size field bytes should have been arbitrary length and the algorithm should have been optionally customizable
  - Ports should have been unique binary strings of arbitrary length instead of numbers, and not limited in count (as mentioned)
  - Streams should have been encrypted by default, with clear transmission as the special case (symmetric key encryption was invented before TCP)
  - IP should have connected to an arbitrary peer ID, not a MAC address, for resumable sessions if network changes (maybe only securable with encryption)
  - Encrypted streams should not have been on a special port for HTTPS (not TCP's fault)
  - IP address field bytes should have been arbitrary length (not TCP's fault)
  - File descriptors could have been universal instead of using network sockets, unix sockets, files, pipes and bind/listen/accept/select (not TCP's fault)
  - Streams don't actually make sense in the first place, we needed state transfer with arbitrary datagram size and partial sends/ranges (not TCP's fault)
Linking this to my "why your tunnel won't work" checklist:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44713493

I want to add that the author of the article wrote one of the cleanest and most concise summaries of the TCP protocol that I've ever read.


I'm not a frontend developer, I knew about ::before and ::after, but just learned about adjacent sibling combinator +, general sibling combinator ~ and :has() after reading your comment. Maybe every character in the text could be wrapped in a <span> via Javascript where the class name is the unicode value (in hex, say). Then css could tighten the spacing and simulate kerning for certain character combinations:

  text:
  
  it
  
  html:
  
  <span class="69">i</span><span class="74 sarcastic">t</span>
  
  css:
  
  /* could also use ch or ex instead of em */
  .69 + .74::before {
    margin-left: -0.1em;
  }
  
  .sarcastic {
    transform: skewX(-10deg);
  }
  
  /* loosen spacing a bit for certain randomness */
  .69 + .74.sarcastic::before {
    margin-left: -0.05em;
  }
Maybe the type of randomness applied could be set as additional classes on the character, limited only by imagination (I added .sarcastic as an example). Maybe AI could be trained on sample text to tidy up the kerning for a large number of permutations, althought the generated css could get quite large.

I asked AI if there's a way to apply css to specific characters instead of selectors, but unfortunately that doesn't seem to be possible (yet). It feels strange to live in a world where I could have just asked AI to do all of this for me in an online sandbox in less time than it took me to write this comment :-/


This is maybe the first dataset I've seen that clearly illustrates how margin (profit) is inversely correlated with value to humanity.

Other than Ports, the top 7 highest-margin industries (stock/crypto exchanges, stock exchanges, banks, toll road operators, financial services and asset management) are in financialization and rent-seeking, basically acting as middlemen that use other people's money to extract wealth.

Meanwhile the bottom 7 lowest-margin industries other than LiDAR and aircraft leasing (CRISPR, gene therapy, hydrogen fuel cell, genomics and mRNA therapeutics) arguably have some of the greatest potential to improve quality of life and help the planet.

Sometimes it feels like everything that I care about most has been marginalized and commodified to the point of financial inviability. Meanwhile people who simply came out on the winning side of the multiverse and pulled up the ladder behind them are doing so well that they mock the rest of us for working by actively making our lives harder at every opportunity.


> Other than Ports, the top 7 highest-margin industries (stock/crypto exchanges, stock exchanges, banks, toll road operators, financial services and asset management) are in financialization and rent-seeking, basically acting as middlemen that use other people's money to extract wealth.

OK, I'll bite. This is a very ungenerous take. Entities that aggregate and provide capital create enormous real human value. In fact, I would argue that most of the improvement in modern life that we all take for granted is because capital markets are available and accessible at scale. Where does the biotech company working on the new gene therapy get the billions it takes to develop and bring that drug to market? Where does the aircraft leasing company get the money to pony up for aircraft at hundreds of millions a pop?

I think it is fair to argue about whether the financial services use their position fairly/wisely/etc but it is unfair to dismiss the industry as "middlement using other people's money to extract wealth".


These entities facilitate value creation yes, but they do not create much value and certainly not in proportion to the profits they extract.

I have met people who sincerely seem to believe that if an entity makes money then it must be societally useful because otherwise the market would not reward them with profits.

This seems to me like a self-help belief for people in these lucrative but ultimately not very meaningful positions.


The Mafia makes (made?) a ton of profit but are a net negative on society. The better heuristic may be to consider what would be lost if the industry did not exist. Anything beyond subsistence agriculture would probably be impossible without financialization. There's a reason you had banks even in the middle ages when the average person was poor.


>Anything beyond subsistence agriculture would probably be impossible without financialization.

This is patently not true. The USSR had no financial markets and engaged in the production high value goods. Whether it did so more efficiently than its capitalist competition is another matter, and I believe the answer is likely no, but it clearly did more than subsistence farming.


It's not a comparison or another matter. It was a disaster and if it didn't fail the way it did, it would have through famine.


This assessment is not based in historical reality. The last famine in the Soviet Union ended in 1947, more than 40 years before its dissolution, and with World War 2 being a major contributing factor.

The broader economic situation of the USSR is a very different question to whether or not they were able to progress beyond subsistence farming. One is a relatively nuanced topic, the other is a question that can be answered trivially by someone with the most basic historical knowledge, or even knowledge of modern Russia which clearly has not developed from subsistence farming to a developed economy in the time between 1991 and today.


That’s the point. They could initiate any massive production but it wasn’t maintainable at the scale they intended.


I agree that banks and many financial instruments are valuable and do facilitate value creation in the world. But that is the extent of it, they facilitate others to create value but do not make any on their own. They are however very well positioned to extract the profit from other industries and that is why the financial world can be so lucrative.

Also, even if some financialization is beneficial that does not mean all of it is. Too much can be very harmful.


That's like saying that, when you farm wheat, the wheat plant did the value creation and the farmer just facilitated it.

Facilitating value creation is value creation.


I get your point, I believe I acknowledged the usefulness of financial instruments.

Nevertheless it is not exactly the same. A carpenter’s apprentice is useful only when paired with his master. He facilitates the carpenter in his value creation but lacks the skills to do anything on his own.

Unlike the apprentice however, finance never actually learns the stuff.

Again, all of this has it’s uses and all, it’s just gotten a bit out of hand in terms of gambling like behaviour and the push the financial world creates towards harmful monopolies.


Banks do not provide capital. When I buy 50 tons of steel, no bank has sold it to me. The smelters and miners have provided that capital. Banks allocate capital. It is management, not provision.

With that in mind, there are two types of productive financial work: actuarial services and accounting. Actuaries act as the managers of society's resources, ensuring that net profit is made and risk well distributed, and accountants determine what those resources are. It is clear that many of the people in finance are not qualified to provide either of these services and simply leach profit out of the rest of the economy.

Notice that neither of these rely on capital markets and speculation. Speculators have been repeatedly proven to be horrible managers, performing worse than random chance. History is clear on this: if left to their own devices, speculators will destroy the economy. Only by means of strict regulation can they be forced into doing the productive actuarial and accounting work for which they are hypothetically employed. Yet for some reason, we still allow these people to operate without oversight in many cases and to extract massive profit beyond the value of their work.


> History is clear on this: if left to their own devices, speculators will destroy the economy

Are you talking about the 2008 financial crisis? or do you mean something else?


History is filled with bubbles and crashes. At this very moment, there are trillions of dollars invested into companies with no clear profit model who are openly and obviously fraudulent in their accounting practises. Do you think this allocation is driven by a rational consideration of the risks of investing in a business with massive obligations and no possible way to service them? Or take bit coins. They are fictional products with clear negative value, and yet some financial professional push to integrate this funny money into the real economy.

Compare and contrast: resource allocation in finance-heavy Western nations with the same in the finance-light China. It's abundantly obvious to me that, through suppressing their financial sector, China has reached a superior economic outcome than they otherwise might have. We have elected to make traders the managers of our economy, and I think they have done a clear bad job and that we aught to reassess treating their decisions with such primacy.


See: Mortgages are a manufactured product (2022) by Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/mortgages-are-a-manuf...


What point are you trying to make?

That article could be reduced to one phrase: "banks off-load mortgage risk by selling that debt to investors". But that doesn't drive clicks or strike the fear of corporations into your soul.


Obviously the financial sector provide a lot of value, but they also extract a LOT of value and probably even worse employ a LOT of the smartest people (I recall the rebalancing of Iceland's economy after its banks failed), and couldn't we get nearly the same benefits with far less of the global economy being dedicated to financial services and trading (which neither I nor it seems the OECD categorise under "services")?

For example according to the OECD [1] 25% of Luxembourg's GDP (excluding interest and trading profits [2]) and 10% of employment is due to financial services! For comparison, for the UK and USA it's 8.8% and 8.3% of GDP.

In particular it's hard to me to see how market trading activity that provides a price for equities to the second, instead of say holding auctions every hour (which would probably greatly reduce profits for day traders and HFT), helps any drug development or aircraft leasing company to raise money. Financing deals don't happen on the market, and if market price is involved, typically something like the last month's average daily closing price is used.

We might call middlemen parasitic if they extract more value than they provide, but as you say, without finance the global economy wouldn't function. Let's instead consider the marginal utility of more of the economy being dedicated to finance. I'm convinced it's negative.

[1] https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/04/oecd-economic-s...

[2] Quote from [1]:

> In the national accounts, financial services output is measured as the sum of financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) and fees, for instance on account keeping, credit cards, brokerage, financial advice and asset management. ... Trading profits and other interest income, for instance on bonds and derivative products, are excluded from the national account measure of financial services output.


You imply in your argument that finance mainly makes money from HFT("it's hard to me to see how market trading activity that provides a price for equities to the second") but this is simply not true, HFT and quants make up a very small portion of financial staff or profits.

My understanding is that the majority of big finance's income is from private equity or debt deals (pairing companies who need money with investors who have money), not from trading (there's very few people who we can confidently say are net winning traders and they don't scale).


No I didn't mean to draw attention to HFTs specifically, I understand they aren't big. I said 'second' instead of 'subsecond' because humans are also capable of reacting within seconds. But you are right that all those day traders losing money even things out and I was concentrating on the wrong thing. Investing and trading on longer time scales is certainly profitable.


> the bottom 7 lowest-margin industries ... (CRISPR, gene therapy, hydrogen fuel cell, genomics and mRNA therapeutics) arguably have some of the greatest potential to improve quality of life and help the planet.

Critically, all the revenue for things you mention have yet to materialize, so they will show up in this naive analysis as losers. What they really represent is _opportunity_. Some may materialize but others have been around for decades and it turns out the "application for profit" step is much harder than anticipated.

> margin (profit) is inversely correlated with value to humanity.

You say this like it's a bad thing, but arguably the most valuable things to humanity are food, water, and shelter. These are simultaneously so important and so cheap that they embody the term "commodity," and that's a good thing! A _ton_ of human ingenuity from every society and culture has been applied to making these things better and cheaper and more plentiful. The same thing is happening to solar power (mostly for geopolitical reasons), which is conspicuously not on either of your lists.

Shelter is the one bit in the hierarchy of needs that got weird. Since it's not a consumable, there's incentive to treat it as an investment. In theory there's nothing wrong with that, but the incentives combined with local politics can become toxic. So many voters in the US own real estate (with leverage!) that everyone agrees by default that prices must never go down. That leads to a trap where politics revolve around housing prices never falling.


> This is maybe the first dataset I've seen that clearly illustrates how margin (profit) is inversely correlated with value to humanity.

Of course, this pretty closely matches the basic Econ 101 explanations of competition and free markets. The entire goal of competition is to reduce prices, specifically to get the market price of a good to trend down towards the marginal cost. The thing that's supposed to be good for society isn't that some people get very rich by selling things at high profit margins, but rather that the stuff we want is available at the lowest feasible price.


I was about to say "Wait, you want to live in the world where gene therapy is as heavily marked up as toll roads?" in the same spirit as this. Low profit margin is the good outcome, not the bad outcome.


You seem to be in agreement with the top-level poster, then. "Margin is inversely correlated with value to humanity" corresponds to "low margin is the good outcome", presuming that you see value to humanity as the good outcome.


I also feel similarly when I was finishing grad school.

I learned advanced engineering topics only to find that the “hot” areas were social media and cell phones.

Not sure what, but always assumed there would be better uses of such an education.

I was largely mistaken.


> Meanwhile the bottom 7 lowest-margin industries other than LiDAR and aircraft leasing (CRISPR, gene therapy, hydrogen fuel cell, genomics and mRNA therapeutics) arguably have some of the greatest potential to improve quality of life and help the planet.

You're missing how the calculation works.

Suppose you work in a lab doing genomics etc. You get paid, say, $100,000/year, and you require some equipment which costs another $100,000/year to pay off and which goes to pay the salaries of the people who invented or manufactured it. Then your lab has $210,000/year in revenue, which means $10,000 in profit and a margin of ~5%, which isn't super high.

That's good! It means the people paying for your services aren't paying a huge margin on top of your salary to receive your services so more people can afford it. Or it means you're getting paid $100,000 instead of $60,000, the latter of which would have quintupled the investors' profit but reduced your incentive to do that work, reducing the quality of the people they can attract to do it.

Whereas industries with high net margins are the ones that are the most dysfunctional or captured by incumbents. It's no surprise that all the finance stuff is there at the top since that's the most thoroughly captured industry in the country. But that doesn't mean you want other things to be like that, it means you want those things to be more competitive so the money is going to customers as lower prices or workers as higher wages instead of going to fat cats as higher margins.


This is true. But there’s another side to it too, which is that if the industry was more profitable it would (probably) attract more investment, specifically in the form of new companies.


That depends what the startup costs look like. If the barriers to entry are low then you don't need a lot of investment to enter the market -- which is one of the things that causes margins to be lower, because otherwise people would keep doing it until the returns fell below the normal market rate of return.

The industries with excessive margins are the ones where the incumbents make it prohibitively expensive for anyone to invest in those industries by entering them as a new business, as opposed to buying the stock of the incumbents. Which is one of the risks to their investors -- their stock prices are thereby inflated and they're running the risk both that voters will never get mad enough to actually push through regulatory reform and that the huge market incentive to find a way to disrupt them will never actually find a way do it.


This is true. Banking is a great example of this.


>> This is maybe the first dataset I've seen that clearly illustrates how margin (profit) is inversely correlated with value to humanity.

9th from the bottom is EV charging. You might think that's going to improve quality of life, but the reality is these are companies trying to be middle men in a commodity market. They want to profit from delivering electricity to locations along the highway. It's kind of stupid because most people can charge at home overnight and be good for the next day or three. OTOH if you're going on a long trip you'll want to plan stops at these places but since you're planning you can check prices too.


> crypto exchanges, stock exchanges, banks, toll road operators, financial services and asset management

While these are bogeymen, they do provide clear services that people need.

Banks should be obvious. A toll road is the worst offender in the list, it's tough to justify the eternal regressive tax.

The rest falls into financial markets. A steelman argument here could be that those services all make the power of compound interest broadly available. It's maybe the only exponential power available to average people.

I think there's a good argument that financial markets are a big reason that people can ever retire.


> I think there's a good argument that financial markets are a big reason that people can ever retire.

There isn't. The reason people can finally retire in the 20th and 21st centuries is due to extreme exploitation of fossil fuels and using multiples of stored energy to make goods, which would normally be unavailable compared to the energy budget coming from the Sun in a given year.

You can argue in some way that the financial markets made this wealth easily accessible to the average joe through a 401k, but it could have been just as easily allocated using a different not-for-profit mechanism.


Agree with the general point. I’d maybe add that a lot of times it’s the scale of the profit that makes something a net negative for humanity, not the percentage based margin. A lot big tech started small and in the early stages created a ton of positive value, sometimes with a respectable margin, but once they are at billions of market capitalization and starts chasing profits for investors, the positive societal value gets eroded.


Why doesn't competition drive their margins to be smaller? That's what I'm curious about.

Article says Unit Economies or regulatory monopoly, but I'd be interested in something that goes deeper, specifically around financial services.


> Sometimes it feels like everything that I care about most has been marginalized and commodified to the point of financial inviability

Every day is a new chance to re-examine what you most care about and make some surprising discoveries.

Or not :)


> stock exchanges, banks, toll road operators, financial services and asset management are in … rent-seeking.

This is an absolutely insane take. If you truly believe it, then I propose two tests:

1. You should start a business that provides the same services without rent seeking. If they’re really these low-value things that are just charging high prices, then you should be able to setup very attractive alternatives, make a ton of money yourself, and improve the world in a big way.

2. If you don’t have the energy or willingness to start them yourself, you could limit your use of them to the absolute bare necessity. If you believe they extract value, you could probably do better for yourself by using them less.


All of the money is mostly tied up in safe bets for boomers. You don't see capital chasing big bets because folks would rather get their 4-7%+ "guaranteed" than risk it on a startup.

There's probably some meta commentary on the global risk climate in general since COVID here.


Longer life expectancy has led to stagnation due to those older in power and owning wealth to have reduced risk appetite for investment and innovation, leading to maintaining the status quo and their quality of life for the balance of life remaining. They are stealing from the future through the demand for profits today.

Peter G. Peterson wrote about this in Gray Dawn 25 years ago, Scott Galloway talks about it today.

https://openlibrary.org/books/OL385129M/Gray_dawn

https://www.ted.com/talks/scott_galloway_how_the_us_is_destr...


So that’s where the South Park Epsiode name comes from. Holy cow.


This is great! I remember a turning point for me when I was feeling very low at the height of the War on Terror and jingoism appeared to have taken over the world. Just before the housing bubble popped and politics would swing the other way, but we didn't know that was going to happen yet.

John Mayer was playing music at Macworld 2007 (wish I could find the video) and said "Steve Jobs and Apple Inc. just make life more fun. It's like the opposite of terrorism":

https://www.cnet.com/culture/live-macworld-coverage/

I think of stuff like the Whole Earth Catalog as the opposite of neofeudalism and tech bro culture's revisionist history.

It doesn't have to be this way. Wealth inequality isn't invincible, or even inevitable. Back to basics works. We can get our hacker culture back. We can restore the timeline that's been stolen from us, the one we were on in the 90s before financialization and ensh@ttification ruined all the fun.


Inspiring comment. I hope you're right, if nothing else for the next generation's sake. I'm a bit more pessimistic here.

> We can restore the timeline that's been stolen from us, the one we were on in the 90s before financialization and ensh@ttification ruined all the fun.

It'd have to be a cultural change. Consumers at large have decided with their wallet they'll buy products made anywhere, of any quality, with missing or abusive support, if it means they can save a dime. Or that they'll sign away every ounce of privacy if it's free. Until we fix that problem, fixing anything else is going to be hard.

I like that younger generations care, or at least pretend to, about causes and sustainability. Not that that itself isn't being abused, but it's a glimmer of hope.


Not sure why wealth inequality is mixed anywhere near the rest of the topics.

I couldn't care less about it, if some people live to make money, let them, as long as they do it legally.

On the other hand hacker culture is very lacking and the fact that we don't really own our devices is part of the issue.p


Wealth inequality is a problem because it deprives median citizens of limited ressources; consider urban housing as an example. There are two factors at play:

- Average people have to compete on price with the wealthy (which becomes harder as inequality rises)

- Wealthy people are incentivized to use their wealth to acquire things and extract rent, which drives up total costs and makes inequality worse

A lot of the resulting problems stay negligible or hidden or as long as there is enough overall growth, but as soon as that growth slows down these kinds of problems become very apparent.


Inequality necessarily reduces living standards for those at the bottom of the heap.

When the person at the top has more than they can spend on necessities and luxuries, they put their money to work. That means buying assets and driving up their prices.

Some assets are fairly divorced from the "real" economy, but enough filter through to extract wealth from the masses who have to work for a living as eg. spiralling rents, inflated credentialism etc.


Regardless, what's the connection to hacker culture.


This deserves an answer.

Cash and assets are phantom wealth, the kind that celebrities lose after their first big break when they forget to pay their taxes and everything gets repossessed. Real wealth is majority shareholder control of the means of production.

It's not so much that billionaires should be blamed for acquiring vast wealth, but that they are a symptom of a broken economic system. In that they use their wealth to lobby and capture the government so that they not only pay low or no taxes, they also get large government contracts and subsidies to multiply their wealth further. And they also own the mainstream media, so can use it to spread propaganda to convince people to vote against their own self-interest. So that deregulation, tax cuts and austerity appear to have equal footing with public investment, even though the former aren't supported by macroeconomic theory.

Why does this matter? Because the premise of trickle-down economics is that investing money at the top causes ripple effects in the economy that eventually reach the bottom. Which sounds nice in theory, but in practice, the wealthy use financialization and tax shelters to vacuum up capital so that it grows only for them. In effect turning themselves into black holes where capital only flows one way (see Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty). Thus shattering any logical argument for trickle-down economics.

The result being that there is plenty of money for private equity firms, real estate developers, the military industrial complex, the prison industrial complex, big pharma, fossil fuel companies, proxy wars in Middle East and former USSR, you get the idea. Yet there appears to be no money for food stamps, public education, public healthcare, social security, Medicare and Medicaid, university research, government grants, and yes - grants and loans for small businesses like startups.

Meaning that as the US government endlessly slashes funding for anything outside the status quo, the national debt only grows larger. Prices go up while wages stagnate. Paradoxes that apparently nobody can see, because they keep voting for the same people and parties. It's like Lucy pulling the football away just as Charlie Brown tries to kick it, but he never figures out that he's being fooled.

When for a tiny fraction of the billions of dollars we spend on, say, election advertising, we could cure several diseases. We could have thousands, maybe millions, of $10,000 grants for startups working on disruptive technologies, the type of grants that Y Combinator used to give when it started.

Instead we flush it all down the toilet year after year. So that hackers are forced to work in their parents' basements, on shoestring budgets, with skeleton crew teams, spending years of what little leisure time they have to build things that might have otherwise taken weeks. All so that billionaires and surveillance capitalism can keep vacuuming out our savings.

The US GDP is $30 trillion, and there are about 150 million workers. That's $200,000 per year, per worker. Yet the median income is around $65,000 per year. Meaning that 2/3 of our productivity gets skimmed by the wealthy. Where does that other $135,000 per year go? It's not going to hacker culture, that's for sure. So we run in place as the world burns.


Axial flux motors are such an obvious and simple to build design that I don't understand why they aren't used more commercially. I've mainly seen do-it-yourself projects to build them for home windmills etc.

- divergence -

This is perhaps my greatest frustration with wealth inequality. Billionaires like Elon Musk (not to single him out of the thousand others) sometimes fund innovative projects initially, but seem to get lost in the weeds doubling down on evolutionary tech, while missing obvious opportunities in fringe tech and old ideas that were suppressed.

For example, the Tesla turbine could have been used for an onboard generator, and what better opportunity than to build a hybrid Tesla car using it? Its main drawback is that it gets fouled by combustion products (with secondary drawbacks in low torque, noise, etc). So why not use natural gas, propane or hydrogen? Why not use an external combustion system that heats air and runs it through the turbine in place of using a larger (due to low compression) Stirling engine? Why not mount the turbine in sound dampening material or a vacuum? These are all trivially overcome engineering challenges. Yet we can't buy a cost-effective mass-produced Tesla turbine or even a Stirling engine of any appreciable power online.

As we see more and more of these missed or suppressed innovations by moneyed interests, I can't help but come to the conclusion that wealth inequality is the largest force stopping widespread prosperity, especially the kind brought by automation to provide basic resources. We can claim that so much progress has been made possible by crony capitalism, for example the computers we are writing and reading this comment on, but I believe that they exist despite concentrated wealth, not because of it.

And I'm worried that access to fee-based AI will widen the wealth gap even further. Because people with money will be able to pay AI to do their jobs and get paid, while people without money may be forced to do those jobs by hand performatively under ever-increasing pressure as the cost of AI only decreases due to economies of scale and Moore's law. So that the main goal for moneyed interests could become to deny access to capital to the working class so that they can be exploited. Even though it would be far easier and more beneficial to more people to distribute the costs of some minimal level of AI to everyone in the world.

I dunno, the more I see these exciting innovations that could practically be built for cost of materials (28 pounds of copper costs less than $150 and is the most expensive component) yet never reach widespread adoption - while other inferior products that use more material flourish - it makes me question if our market-based economy even works anymore. I'm not saying that older (antiquated?) alternatives like socialism/communism would work better today, just that there may be a post-scarcity 21st century economy where patents that could increase equivalent personal wealth by orders of magnitude are put into the public domain. Not for money, but as automated and open source goods/services/resources having equivalent value to what money would have provided. The closest I can get is stuff like solarpunk, which still hasn't caught on for reasons I don't understand.

Edit: before I get flamed too badly for this comment, I should add that neodymium magnets could perhaps cost more than copper, and/or be a scarcer resource. If I were working on this type of motor, I would try to get similar performance from non-rare-earth magnets and aluminum wire, as well as explore hybrid motors that achieve say 80% of the power and efficiency using only 20% of the rare stuff. On that note, we are long overdue for mass-produced graphene and carbon nanotube wire. We need a definitive answer as to whether they are safe enough to use commercially, or if they are a dead end like asbestos. I don't understand why billionaires don't put more money into getting this sort of first-principles "real work" done. If I won the internet lottery, I would set up a foundation with an endowment to tackle these pressing problems and invite hackers through grants, sort of like what MacKenzie Scott is doing.


I regret writing this comment.

It might not make sense to younger people, but for me growing up in the 1980s, there were many decades of tech stagnation where basically all alternatives to internal combustion engines were suppressed. And the people who made vast fortunes didn't care about disrupting the status quo, so we were forced to live with substandard tech and pay a premium for the privilege. It wasn't until Elon Musk disrupted the car industry with Tesla starting from 2004 that anything changed, which we take for granted now. I really idolized him before he lost his wunderkind status by falling for political propaganda like a mark. Maybe that's my own projection, I don't know anything anymore.

Whereas today, tech is evolving so rapidly that we don't have time to invent much before the singularity hits in the 2040s. We're facing a different existential crisis now, one of finding meaning when so much happens through manifestation outside of our own actions, instead of facing the void that we can't contribute due to the realities of the time it takes to afford the cost of living (a theme from Fight Club). So my points are maybe anachronisms now, frustrations from an era that no longer exists.

Why I got triggered by this motor: 1000 hp at 28 pounds is enough to lift a large car or truck. The rule for helicopters is about 5 pounds per hp (more with a longer prop that has a higher aspect ratio - edit: the Mars Ingenuity drone gets 3.6 lbs per hp in at atmosphere 1% as dense as ours). So 4 of these motors would make a quadcopter the likes of which we've never seen before. It's almost Star Wars tech IMHO. We're talking extremely high ceilings like 50,000 feet or more. Drones that fly at 400, 500 mph or more, even close to the speed of sound.

And we could have had this tech a long time ago, because it's not especially complex. It's just that nobody devoted the small investment for the research. Same for lithium iron batteries, especially LiFePO4, which could have arrived in the 1980s or 1990s because they're so easy to make. Possibly even the 1960s: the SR-71 flew in ..1964! But we had other priorities.

Anyway, it's a great accomplishment and I'm happy for them. I just mourn what might have been had the geopolitical situation been different.


I always figured if I wrote a paper, the peer review would be public scrutiny. As in, it would have revolutionary (as opposed to evolutionary) innovations that disrupt the status quo. I don't see how blocking that kind of paper from arXiv helps hacker culture in any way, so I oppose their decision.

They should solve the real problem of obtaining more funding and volunteers so that they can take on the increased volume of submissions. Especially now that AI's here and we can all be 3 times as productive for the same effort.


That paper wouldn't be blocked. Have you read the thing?


Before being considered for submission to arXiv’s CS category, review articles and position papers must now be accepted at a journal or a conference and complete successful peer review.

Huh, I guess it's only a subset of papers, not all of them. My brain doesn't work that way, because I don't like assigning custom rules for special cases (edit: because I usually view that as a form of discrimination). So sometimes I have a blind spot around the realities of a problem that someone is facing, that don't have much to do with its idealization.

What I mean is, I don't know that it's up to arXiv to determine what a "review article and position paper" is. Because of that, they must let all papers through, or have all papers face the same review standards.

When I see someone getting their fingers into something, like muddying/dithering concepts, shifting focus to something other than the crux of an argument (or using bad faith arguments, etc), I view it as corruption. It's a means for minority forces to insert their will over the majority. In this case, by potentially blocking meaningful work from reaching the public eye on a technicality.

So I admit that I was wrong to jump to conclusions. But I don't know that I was wrong in principle or spirit.


> What I mean is, I don't know that it's up to arXiv to determine what a "review article and position paper" is.

Those are terms of art, not arbitrary categories. They didn't make them up.


It’s weird to say that you can be three times more efficient at taking down AI slop now that AI is here, given that the problem is exacerbated by AI in the first place. At least without AI authors were forced to actually write the slop themselves…

This does not seem like a win even if your “fight AI with AI plan works.”


I just heard about this post, so did a quick search and currently it looks like Sriko is the only company providing affordable sodium-ion batteries. They appear to be within about half the energy density of lithium-ion batteries. I used AI (first Google then Bing because it has ChatGPT 5) to create tables comparing battery types:

  A($/Wh) D(Wh/kg) D(Wh/L) P($)  E(Wh) M(kg) Vol(L) V(V) C    S     URL(Sodium-ion)
  0.46    97.50    235.79  1.81  3.9   0.04  0.017  3.0  3000 18650 https://srikobatteries.com/product/sodium-ion-18650-3-0v-1-3ah-3-90wh-20c-rechargeable-battery/
  0.34    114.29   258.31  3.23  9.6   0.084 0.037  3.0  3000 26700 https://srikobatteries.com/product/sodium-ion-26700-3-0v-3-2ah-9-60wh-3c-rechargeable-battery/
  0.32    134.78   258.89  9.98  31.0  0.23  0.120  3.1  5000 33140 https://srikobatteries.com/product/sodium-ion-battery-33140-3-1v-10ah-31wh-12c-cylindrical-battery/
  0.40    112.50   224.09  21.85 54.0  0.48  0.241  3.0  5000 46145 https://srikobatteries.com/product/sodium-ion-46145-3-0v-18ah-54wh-10c-rechargeable-battery/
  0.20    122.22   231.09  43.70 220.0 1.8   0.952  3.2  5000 pack  https://srikobatteries.com/product/sodium-ion-na-5c-70ah-220wh-battery/
  
  C($/Wh) D(Wh/kg) D(Wh/L) P($)  E(Wh) M(kg) Vol(L) V(V) C    S     URL(Lithium-ion)
  0.23    252.00   761.77  2.85  12.6  0.05  0.017  3.6  300  18650 https://www.18650batterystore.com/products/samsung-35e
  0.16    262.01   742.41  2.85  18.0  0.069 0.024  3.6  300  21700 https://www.18650batterystore.com/products/samsung-50e
  
  O:   outlay
  D:   density
  P:   price
  E:   energy
  M:   mass
  Vol: volume
  V:   voltage
  C:   cycles
  S:   size
  
  Note: 26700 is not the same as 27100, they are just what each site specializes in.
  Comment: I think that it should have been 18065 instead of 18650 because then the last 3 digits could be length in mm, same for the others, but what do I know.
  Edit: I forgot to add cycles. When considered, they drop the price of sodium-ion to roughly 5-10 times less than lithium-ion for the batteries shown here.


It bugged me that lithium-ion battery listings only state 300-500 charge cycles, so I did a deeper dive with AI and found these batteries for a better comparison:

  O($/Wh) D(Wh/kg) D(Wh/L) P($)  E(Wh) M(kg) Vol(L) V(V) C    S     URL(Lithium-ion)
  0.31    236.17   671.08  3.4   11.1  0.047 0.017  3.7  1000 18650 https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Wholesale-18650-Lithium-Battery-INR18650-3_1601503766893.html
  0.36    222.00   671.08  3.99  11.1  0.05  0.017  3.7  800  18650 https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Hot-Selling-Factory-Price-INR18650-30Q_1601159662361.html
  0.83    160.00   290.20  4     4.8   0.03  0.017  3.2  2000 18650 https://www.batteryspace.com/LiFePO4-18650-Rechargeable-Cell-3.2V-1500-mAh-4.8Wh-7.5A-Rate.aspx
  0.36    227.85   1088.24 6.4   18    0.079 0.017  3.2  3000 18650 https://www.goldencellpower.com/product-item/18650-1100mah-3-2v-lifepo4-cells/
  0.36    222.78   1064.06 6.4   17.6  0.079 0.017  3.2  3000 18650 https://www.batteryspace.com/LiFePO4-18650-Rechargeable-Cell-3.2V-2000-mAh-6.4Wh-6A-Rate.aspx
  0.80    134.74   365.71  10.18 12.8  0.095 0.035  3.2  4000 26650 https://www.batteryspace.com/LiFePO4-26650-Rechargeable-Cell-3.2V-4000-mAh-12.8Wh-12A-Rate.aspx
  0.24    184.00   396.07  3.5   14.72 0.08  0.037  3.2  3000 26700 https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/lithium-ion-battery-cell-26700-3_1601277009356.html
  0.31    240.00   413.29  4.8   15.36 0.064 0.037  3.2  4000 26700 https://www.sunpowernewenergy.com/product/26700-high-rate-lifepo4-battery-45e/
  0.31    160.00   128.28  4.8   15.36 0.096 0.120  3.2  4000 33140 https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/High-Quality-LMFP-5AH-Cell-Lithium_1601161018743.html
  0.28    256.41   167.03  5.6   20    0.078 0.120  3.2  5000 33140 https://www.evlithium.com/LiFePO4-Battery/33140-20ah-lifepo4-battery-cell.html

  Edit: dangit, I made a mistake in my previous post. A($/Wh) and C($/Wh) were supposed to be O($/Wh) for outlay. I fixed this one to provide context.


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