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I can't help but think that people who truly feel like they have unique insight into the future would be insane to share it publicly.



What do you mean? Are there no advantages to openly sharing ideas? Declaring your goals as a means of reaching like minded employees and business partners? What's worth more, secretly choosing the right investment or sharing ideas? Do you think he's only after money? Is there any value in getting credit for your ideas?


There's a sweet spot where you're right enough to say "I told you so" and vague enough that no one can use the info.


Only if the value of you sharing that information at that moment exceeds the value of that information by itself.

Steve Jobs/Andy Rubin were preaching that mobile was the future for longer than I can remember but only after they had something to sell everyone else.


What if they have no access to the capital required to make good on that knowledge, but get value out of signaling forecasting abilities?


Or you need to convince people of your forecasting ability in order to get capital.


Well it's altruism at work.

Also, don't forget someone else might have already noticed this same insight, so with some game theory one can easily end up sharing an insight, cancelling out their competition.

Also I think this insight has been pretty easily known for a while now.




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