Hrmm, I did find exactly one instance of the phrase on Google. I'm surprised, too.
As it was explained to me, a Chinese Soda Fallacy is a business plan wherein you stand to make a dollar selling a Coke to everybody in China. You will make a billion dollars! Except that the market-clearing price for Coke in China isn't a dollar, and not everybody wants one, and so on and so forth.
The idea that you will make a dime every time anyone drives a mile strikes me as perfectly congruent with that fallacy.
Edit: This article seems to address the topic without using the phrase.
A COKE FOR EVERY KID IN CHINA
This gambit rests its case on a plethora of secondary data to show how large and fast-growing a market is. The plan then makes a heroic leap and assumes that the new venture will grab X percent of that market it could be 1%, 10%, 30% or whatever. "Surely," the plan argues, "with the large number of customers in our market, we'll easily get enough. We only need a small fraction to have a very nice business."
Sounds like the more generalized equivalent of the typical software fallacy that goes like, "There are umpty million iPhone users, if just 1% of them buys our app...."
As it was explained to me, a Chinese Soda Fallacy is a business plan wherein you stand to make a dollar selling a Coke to everybody in China. You will make a billion dollars! Except that the market-clearing price for Coke in China isn't a dollar, and not everybody wants one, and so on and so forth.
The idea that you will make a dime every time anyone drives a mile strikes me as perfectly congruent with that fallacy.
Edit: This article seems to address the topic without using the phrase.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240529702048303045741335...
A COKE FOR EVERY KID IN CHINA This gambit rests its case on a plethora of secondary data to show how large and fast-growing a market is. The plan then makes a heroic leap and assumes that the new venture will grab X percent of that market it could be 1%, 10%, 30% or whatever. "Surely," the plan argues, "with the large number of customers in our market, we'll easily get enough. We only need a small fraction to have a very nice business."