How do you define "influence" in serious science? Do you really think scientists believe in one person instead of using the scientific methods?
In the relevant climate science, Hanson is just one of the thousand scientists from the whole world who all perform their own research and then report and agree on the summary findings internationally, you surely can't assert that all are "influenced" by just one person.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change surely isn't accepting "only his" claims. If nobody of thousands of the scientists would have similar findings, nobody would accept his work as serious:
Hint: the work of denialists is exactly that: not serious, as most of them can't even make the basic assumptions right.
So what should you consider for a valid "body of research"? The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There's no better international organization of scientists who work on these topics.
Unless you read at least that, you won't even have an idea about the material for which you seem to believe you're against (even if you claim that "you're not a denialist.)" The report reflects the state of the art of that science.
You missed the point of my comment. I personally am a little more familiar with the science than the average American's understanding. What I see published for the general audience however, (and I would not rank IPCC reports in that category, even the summary ones,) overwhelmingly references, quotes, or relates to Hansen. If I'm trying to open stubborn minds, and everything comprehensible I can give these people features a name that's readily tarred as a politically-motivated pariah in the denialist community, their distrust of the mainstream media reporting and belief in their own FUD only hardens.
I agree that there are people who don't understand how science works (that is, they are effectively illiterate for basic scientific methods and facts), so I always try to explain them the basics of science first. Somebody who believes Earth existed for just 6000 years doesn't even know what science is all about, so you can't even expect him to plan more than until the imminent judgement day, oh happy day (sadly, there are actual influential US politicians who said such things).
I start explaining such person that without using the same scientific principles, the mobile phone they carry around wouldn't be possible (just for GPS, the satellites have to carry atomic clocks and the formulas that are used every time have to consider both special and general relativity). Science works.
Otherwise, how can you even talk about the fact that we scientifically know, for example, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere of the last 800,000 years, and that it was for all that time, not counting the last decades, much lower than now (see the chart, max around 300, now we're already at 400 ppm).
And how we know? The same way we know how to make GPS. Science. And it's nothing US-based, there are other countries very capable of the best science. You know, countries able to send the probe to the comet.
Once somebody understands the basics, the start about climate should be learning about IPCC, the process and conclusions.
"Science" is not one thing. It works with very different accuracies and predictive powers in different disciplines. The science that makes your mobile phone and GPS work is nailed down by massive amounts of data and controlled experiments confirming theories to many decimal places. That's why those things work so well and so precisely.
Climate science is nowhere near that accurate--not by many orders of magnitude. So if you are telling people that they should believe climate science with the same confidence that they should believe the science that makes their mobile phone and GPS work, you are giving them serious misinformation.
> we scientifically know, for example, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere of the last 800,000 years, and that it was for all that time, not counting the last decades, much lower than now
Yes. And we also scientifically know that CO2 concentrations during most of the last few hundred million years were much higher than now.
What we don't know is how the climate works to a sufficient accuracy to bet trillions of dollars on particular predictions about what effect rising CO2 levels now are going to have.
The range is accurate enough to know the problems. We even know that the effects will have a very long time span, certainly longer than a few hundred years during which we've released so much CO2.
Those that demand "accuracy" expect to receive one line and not the range. Which less changes how much our children will suffer, and even less for children of our children, only more for us who are old enough to die before the bigger effects come.
"After me the floods" is immensely selfish to those that follow us.
> And we also scientifically know that CO2 concentrations during most of the last few hundred million years were much higher than now.
To compare, that "much higher" state was before dinosaurs went extinct and the modern mammals started to develop!
The fossil fuels now burned needed exactly these hundreds of millions of years to form. The immense part of that is already now burnt in just around hundred years. Note the difference in magnitudes.
And comparing the change of the CO2 concentrations with the known temperature variation, we can expect even much worse changes than very conservative(!) IPCC predictions:
> The range is accurate enough to know the problems.
I disagree. The model predictions don't match the actual data.
> We even know that the effects will have a very long time span
No, we have models that say that, but the model predictions don't match the actual data.
> that "much higher" state was before dinosaurs went extinct and the modern mammals started to develop!
CO2 was much higher then, yes. But it was also much higher during a good part of the Cenozoic.
> The fossil fuels now burned needed exactly these hundreds of millions of years to form.
No, they didn't. They formed during the Carboniferous period, a small part of the total time period during which CO2 was much higher than it is now. Also, CO2 was much higher than it is now for a long time after the Carboniferous, when the fossil fuels had already formed.
> comparing the change of the CO2 concentrations with the known temperature variation, we can expect even much worse changes than very conservative(!) IPCC predictions
Only if you assume, incorrectly, that CO2 changes caused the temperature changes during the ice ages and interglacials. But the CO2 changes during the ice ages and interglacials happened after the temperature changes.
The claims you promote are without any scientific background, here's why:
The concentration of 500 ppm now would make all ice on Earth disappear, whereas 400 million years ago there would be needed 3000 ppm (note three thousand, ten times more than it was before we stat high-rate burning) to achieve the same, as, among other effects, the solar constant was 4% lower then:
Now consider this: during the last 800,000 years CO2 concentration oscillated between 200 and 300 ppm. The humanity pushed it to 400 ppm in around 100 years, and the 500 ppm is the point of no ice on the Earth.
> The claims you promote are without any scientific background, here's why
None of this addresses the actual issues I was raising.
> The concentration of 500 ppm now would make all ice on Earth disappear
According to the hypothesis given in the paper you link to. But it's a hypothesis, not a fact. One obvious omission in the paper is treatment of other forcings besides CO2 and solar. Also, all of the data is proxy data, and the solar forcing is not even based on data but on an assumed linear rate of increase in the solar constant.
> None of this addresses the actual issues I was raising.
Just when somebody closes the eyes and screams at the same time "I don't see anything." It was exactly on the subject: when you claim that millions of years ago the concentration was higher, we even know that the state of the Earth wasn't comparable. Not to mention that humans didn't exist.
The IPCC AR5 admits it--and then tries to argue that it doesn't matter, because their conclusions aren't based on the models, they're based on "expert judgment" or something like that.
"New Zealand politician and a lawyer." "He was also involved with the New Zealand Climate Science Education Trust, a charitable organisation that, according to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), appears to have been set up solely to take court action against them. The trust lost two court cases against NIWA and on both occasions, was ordered to pay costs. NIWA has put the trust into liquidation and as of 2014 was considering to pursue Brill and another trustee for the owed money.[7]"
His claims are, of course, a distortion of what really happened, and are based on what he and those like him call the "hiatus." Which is also misinterpretation of the curve of the temperature change, and which those especially liked before the last two years that broke most of the records.
I see only the agenda there, and again, scientific illiteracy.
The quotes presented on that page mean really nothing, which is somehow expected when written by the guy who doesn't understand the subject, being scientifically illiterate.
> the only thing that you have to back your claims is a post from WUWT
A post which gives specific quotes and references from the IPCC AR5. Whatever you might think of WUWT in general, this particular post is talking about what the IPCC itself is saying.
I could just as well say that a site like RealClimate is "a known alarmist site that has lied a lot of times". At that point we're just pointing fingers and arguing from authority, not substance. That's why I picked an article that specifically quotes and references the IPCC AR5 itself, rather than one of the hundreds of critical papers and articles that have been published by skeptics on the mismatch between the models and the data.
> I could just as well say that a site like RealClimate is "a known alarmist site that has lied a lot of times"
No, you can´t if you don´t lie
> At that point we're just pointing fingers and arguing from authority,
No, WUWT has no authority because nobody on this site is a climate scientist
> That's why I picked an article that specifically quotes and references the IPCC AR5 itself
No, you quoted an article where someone interpreted what the IPCC said. You didn't quoted anything from the IPCC. And that was your claim
> rather than one of the hundreds of critical papers and articles that have been published by skeptics on the mismatch between the models and the data.
Still waiting one of those articles from climate scientists
But I will wait a lot, you're just another denier that has nothing to back what you write
> WUWT has no authority because nobody on this site is a climate scientist
In other words, you would rather argue from authority than look at the actual substance. Thank you for making your position clear.
> You didn't quoted anything from the IPCC
The article I linked to had direct quotes from the IPCC AR5.
> Still waiting one of those articles from climate scientists
Richard Lindzen and Roy Spencer, to name just two, are climate scientists and have written skeptical papers. But there's nothing magical about the label "climate scientist" that makes what they say correct. You have to look at the actual substance. But you've already indicated you don't want to do that, so I guess we'll just have to disagree.
You can have any religion you want but don't expect to be considered of any scientific significance (except as the example of a deluded mind) if your claims don't match the reality.
As you've said: "You have to look at the actual substance."
I know one older guy who I really respect, and with nice scientific background, whose political beliefs would make him agreeing with the "deniers." He started to blog how global warming is a lie etc. I've just sent him the links to really look at the data, the scientific work and to check himself. He never wrote or said anything against global warming again. You seem to have more scientific background than a lawyer, maybe you should honestly check the figures, facts and formulas just once...
> Roy Spencer and Richard Lindzen claims are provably scientifically wrong
I can't find any source for the data underlying the graph in your first link comparing Hansen to Lindzen regarding temperature predictions. The skeptical science article it is attributed to has a link to a 1988 Hansen paper that is broken ("not found"), and a link to a 1989 MIT Tech Talk article quoting Lindzen that has no graph at all and does not make any temperature prediction. So as far as I can tell, the supposed comparison in that graph has no factual basis.
Your second link shows multiple comparisons between statements Spencer has made and the "mainstream" IPCC position on climate science; the differences between them would be more accurately described as differences in opinion on how to interpret the data and how to make predictions, not as showing that Spencer is "provably scientifically wrong".
> As you've said: "You have to look at the actual substance."
Yes, I did. See above.
> maybe you should honestly check the figures, facts and formulas just once...
I have been, for quite some time now. As I said, we're just going to have to disagree.
> looking at the people that really knows what they talk is not arguing from authority.
Why do you think they really know what they are talking about? Because they say so? Because they are "climate scientists" and have the "proper" credentials? That is arguing from authority.
Thanks a whole lot. Finally someone gave me a link and some pointers to a report instead of handwaving about how 2500 scientists cannot be wrong. Now we are talking!
Edit: still ain't completely sold. Anyone has pointers to why there was significantly less ice around Greenland about a 1000 years ago or can prove that this is wrong?
Compare to IPPC estimates: two whole degrees change are the most optimistic expectations and assume almost no use of fossil fuels in future, compared to now.
> Finally someone gave me a link and some pointers
See my other comment here, I also give the link to the raw data and the programs of the models too. And the books that teach the basic formulas involved. It is all real, and the effective consensus of the scientists is not accidental. There's immense scientific work on one side, almost no scientific work on another, and people have the impression that it's 50:50 only because the other side gets so much "air time."
See also how that other side is really the one which effectively lives from being there:
Thanks again. You did something right that I can't remember having seen before in the threads I have participated in.
Now that I have hopefully established myself as an uninformed but intelligent sceptic, not denier, here are two pointers as to why the explanation kind of worked this time:
* links to the actual report, and the intro part. Most people, even in technical forums, assumes malice right away, starts telling me how "2500 scientists can't be wrong" and that I should read the report, all while leaving me with a not-so-subtle feeling that they never read it themselves.
* actually, to a degree at least, answer my question about Greenland instead of immediately assuming malice and bringing out the troll hunting gear. This is, IIRC, the first time I have seen a serious answer that partly covers that question.
On my side I might read a bit more in the report, note one AGW person who isn't all torch and pitchforks and possibly change my mind. (I already live kind of carefully but because I don't like wasting resources, not because I have believed in AGW so far.)
"Each report is produced by a committee of experts selected by the Academy to address a particular statement of task and is subject to a rigorous, independent peer review; while the reports represent views of the committee, they also are endorsed by the Academy."
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1) chartered by the US Congress in 1863 at the request of President Lincoln
In the relevant climate science, Hanson is just one of the thousand scientists from the whole world who all perform their own research and then report and agree on the summary findings internationally, you surely can't assert that all are "influenced" by just one person.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change surely isn't accepting "only his" claims. If nobody of thousands of the scientists would have similar findings, nobody would accept his work as serious:
http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization_structure.shtml
Hint: the work of denialists is exactly that: not serious, as most of them can't even make the basic assumptions right.
So what should you consider for a valid "body of research"? The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There's no better international organization of scientists who work on these topics.
See their procedures:
http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization_procedures.shtm...
Then see their last report, on the level you can probably understand, but with a lot of fine details:
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
Specifically, start from the summary:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FIN...
Unless you read at least that, you won't even have an idea about the material for which you seem to believe you're against (even if you claim that "you're not a denialist.)" The report reflects the state of the art of that science.