As a former professional poker player and sports bettor (who now works on the 'other side'), I looked at the headline in a different way.
There is an appropriate level of failure in all endeavors which involve risk. If you are winning 100% of your hands which make it to showdown, you are either on a real lucky streak.. or you're not going to showdown often enough. That is to say, you're leaving money on the table in terms of potential profit from hands which are not guaranteed winners.
So, I read the headline as a more polite way of saying that he is cherry-picking only the very best opportunities available to him. I'm not in a position to say one way or another whether that is appropriate to his investment goals.
you are either on a real lucky streak.. or you're not going to showdown often enough...
People used to say similar things in Warren Buffett's early days - that he was either super lucky or wasn't leveraging himself enough to multiply his investment prowness. Now he's one of the richest men in the world.
And like Buffet, Paul isn't throwing darts at a roulette wheel, hoping for a winner. He is deeply involved in helping build these companies. He's a technical genius that hedges his bets. He can give access to his friends like PG or the Google founders. If making a poker analogy, paul would be the player with x-ray vision, knowing where and when to bet or fold.
That's a good point. Almost everyone will play the leverage game once it gets popular: this means that opportunities for the kind of statistical arbitrage people like mellow out, and what's more the whole stock market will be so highly inter-networked that the short term stock price will be fragile. But through judicious investment and directorship one's illiquid investments -- as Berkshire Hathaway tends to make them, can be multiplied far more profoundly than traditional leveraged investment. In this way B.H. operates more like private equity or a venture firm -- what's amazing is the difference in scale.
Incidentally, I worked out the same numbers for my own financial situation. It doesn't make a lick of sense for me to save up and diversify at this point, or even actively invest to chase the best return I can, not now. All of my money and effort should go back into my startup, so that I achieve profitability there, and liquidity.
Hey, I'm in same position, but haven't yet switched to the Dark Side. Can you contact me at bettingbrandon at hotmail dot com I'd love to ask you a few questions about your experiences. Can't seem to figure out a way to message you directly on HN, thanks.
There is an appropriate level of failure in all endeavors which involve risk. If you are winning 100% of your hands which make it to showdown, you are either on a real lucky streak.. or you're not going to showdown often enough. That is to say, you're leaving money on the table in terms of potential profit from hands which are not guaranteed winners.
So, I read the headline as a more polite way of saying that he is cherry-picking only the very best opportunities available to him. I'm not in a position to say one way or another whether that is appropriate to his investment goals.