Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? The average family also isn't buying the Kia Rondo, but I'm not claiming that these beginner cars are skewing the values down, just as I see no data whatsoever to demonstrate any skewing up.
SUVs are everywhere. Light trucks are everywhere. Minivans are everywhere. Most of these are in the $35K+ range (the F150 -- the top selling US vehicle -- has an average selling price of $41,776). Even a decently equipped Honda Accord (along with light trucks, the most popular car in the US. Not the Civic, but the Accord) is pushing past $30K.
Often the median and the average skew. But minus actual data beyond just anecdotes, the average is the best we have.
The goal posts seem to keep moving, but this whole discussion began because of a disagreement about whether this would qualify as a "mass produced" car because "Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car".
Yet the #1, most popular vehicle sold in the US, the Ford F-150, sells for over $41K generally. There are many other completely ordinary, most certainly mass produced, vehicles in that price range. Bought by entirely "normal" people.
Since you're the second person in this thread to think my post had anything at all to do with the definition of "mass-produced," I guess I should apologize for being unclear. That wasn't my point at all.
Obviously it will be "mass-produced" for any reasonable definition of the phrase. My point was that this is still a luxury vehicle that will be purchased by people whose wallets will be able to handle production problems.
"Yet the #1, most popular vehicle sold in the US, the Ford F-150"
There is a reason for that. That is a work vehicle.
"These discussions always remind me of a great Onion article about projecting one's own lot across the population at large, and using our own situation and choices to define "normal"."
This is hilarious because it's exactly what I'm responding to. Some set of the HN crowd, despite this entire discussion, still seems to think $40k is a normal amount of money to spend on a car. It isn't. And, again, I think the evidence is on my side. The median family does not, in fact, buy $40k cars, regardless of whether you think I'm projecting or not.
Here, for example, is some information on median used car prices:
From your original post. The statement that everyone apparently isn't understanding right-
One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car.
You are moving the goal posts around to somehow derive a win through some simply wrong statements. That's hardly uncommon, and is the manifestation of ego.
There is a reason for that. That is a work vehicle.
The overwhelming bulk of F150s are bought for personal use, which is exactly why the average price is so high now. The work truck doesn't have the leather interior and xenon lighting package.
And, again, I think the evidence is on my side.
I have no idea what your "side" even is (though your core claims are simply wrong, it seems that you're trying to say that this is such an exclusive, abnormal price range of cars that the buyers are more forgiving? I find that almost impossible to believe: if you want to see an angry, demanding customer, get to know someone with a BMW 3-series). There are almost 18 million new vehicles sold in the US per year. The average price is pushing towards $35K. This is where Tesla is getting involved (I don't think anyone makes cars for the used car market...), exactly at the sweet spot of the average price.
Your priceonomics link has literally zero relevance to this, or data applicable to this discussion.
You desperately want to be right, and that's a pretty common sentiment. Fine. But your original claim was simply wrong (elsewhere you twisted it to not only somehow claim that these people aren't "normal", but also that people who buy a more expensive car are wrong and shouldn't be doing it anyways), however much you claim that people missed your ethereal point. The Tesla 3 absolutely falls within the realm of mass produced cars, and millions of entirely "normal" people are buying that price range of vehicle. They are targeting a completely ordinary market.
I'd like to make a meta-point here, not to osweiller (who thinks I'm making garbage, absurd, incomprehensible, bad-faith arguments, anyway), but just in general. There's this weird thing people do sometimes where you make a point, they respond to a different point, and then you explain that that wasn't your point at all and attempt to clarify what your point actually was.
And then this is where it gets weird: they then tell you, nope, you're wrong, your point was whatever they first interpreted it to be, no matter that you just clarified that that wasn't your point and tried to clear up the confusion.
Please don't do this. It's a really uncharitable and unnecessary way to conduct a discussion. I just told you what I intended my point to be. What do you gain by claiming that I'm hiding some other actual point? What would I gain by hiding some other point? In this particular case, I didn't even put any blame on the reader. I blamed myself and apologized for being unclear. If that's goal-post moving, then what hope do any of us have?
For no other reason than that I have low self-esteem, I'm going to make one last attempt to convince anyone still confused that my statement wasn't some random class-baiting non sequitur. I was responding to this comment:
Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume.
...which was advanced in the context that regular people wouldn't be as forgiving with Tesla's production problems as current owners have been. My point then (and now) was that we shouldn't get too carried away with that line of thinking, because the Model 3 is still going to be a luxury car that will be purchased by people who can afford to deal with some issues.
People who buy new BMWs (by analogy) know that they're going to cost more to fix than a used Honda Civic.
That was my entire point. If it wasn't clear, then I'll take the blame for that. What I won't cop to is some sort of concealed sociological attack. Now, if I know what's good for me, I'll shut up :P
He claimed :Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car.
He further clarified that his definition of normal person to be one that doesn't tend to buy new cars, only used.
You point out that 18 million new cars are sold per year and that average new car price is over 30K a year. That completely misses the point that approx 60 million cars are sold in the US per year or around 1/3 of cars sold are new cars. The average price of a used car sold in the US is around $18,800. Therefore the average car sold is A) used B) cost less than $30K.
>> elsewhere you twisted it to not only somehow claim that these people aren't "normal", but also that people who buy a more expensive car are wrong and shouldn't be doing it anyways
Um, just wow. I find it hilarious that you seem incapable of understanding you are talking about new cars while dionidium is talking about used cars.
And then you go off the rails with some strange conspiracy theory about dionidium labeling people as not normal and that people buying luxury cards as wrong when no such thing happened.
I think you should apply your words to yourself and reflect a bit.
That is dionidium's phrasing, and you're throwing slurs at me? Really?
"you seem incapable of understanding you are talking about new cars while dionidium is talking about used cars"
In a conversation that can only be about new cars, in a discussion that was about mass production (wait..were they talking about the mass production of used cars?)
EDIT: I realize now that talmand is simply a troll, and I apologize for biting.
Most F-150 sales are fleet purchases by utilities, construction companies, highway departments, etc. That's why the numbers are so high. If you looked at private party purchases they would be much lower.
>50% of the F-150s sold are their top tier, premium models (Lariat, King Ranch and Platinum). There are zero fleets that buy these models. This excludes the millions of lower models bought to pull boats and carry egos. Which is how the average selling price is greater than $45,000 now (which, again, is far beyond what fleets are buying for service trucks).
Throughout this thread I've argued that most people do not spend $40k on a car. That really shouldn't be controversial, since it's easily verified.
If you want controversial, here you go: a lot of people in this thread own cars that cost $40k and up on a salary that doesn't justify it. They think they can justify it. Everyone is telling them they can afford it. Their friends all have similar salaries and similar cars.
Fact 1 is utter nonsense. "Fact" doesn't mean "claim something because it sounds good for your argument". Do you see more Ferraris than Honda Civics in your neck of the woods? More Porsches than Kia Fortes?
Regarding "Fact 2", I have no idea what they're even arguing. Their core point was absurd, and they really truly seem to think it's the rich who are buying $35K cars (not "normal", despite being utterly normal for new cars), which is laughable nonsense.
This is all just a diversion. The Tesla 3 is absolutely in the center of the average new car, that normal people buy. Tesla makes, unsurprisingly, vehicles for the new car market. Tens of millions of completely normal Americans buy new cars yearly.
> Fact 1 is utter nonsense. "Fact" doesn't mean "claim something because it sounds good for your argument".
Rebutting an argument by claiming it is not based on any evidence? While providing absolutely no evidence of your own? Okay, cool.
> Regarding "Fact 2", I have no idea what they're even arguing
Their core point was if you're discussing people who buy new cars, you're already skewing away from the poorer demographics. People spend less on average to buy a car, than they do to buy a new car.
> The Tesla 3 is absolutely in the center of the average new car, that normal people buy
The tesla 3 is a little above the average price that people pay for a new car, among the fraction of people who buy new cars. Which most people don't do.
Their core point is not absurd. Where I come from, rich people are the only ones buying new cars at all. Forget $35,000 new cars. Everyone else buys used cars - hopefully one that won't die next month.
The average new car buyer keeps it for six years. 17 million new cars are sold in the US per year. So 102 million Americans (which of course grossly underestimates as most are bought by couples/families) are buying new cars in that lifespan. Of those people, the average price is $32,000 or so.
Again, the data tells us that an enormous number of completely normal, ordinary Americans buy new cars regularly, and that they spend a lot. Anecdotes or personal projections can give us a completely skewed notion about this (e.g. I know zero people who own a gun. Therefore no one owns guns), but if you compare the data to your anecdote, clearly they don't correspond.
And FWIW (which is little), every one of my neighbors has vehicles worth well over the average. In the exurb town I live in on the outskirts of major city, you never, ever see an older car, or a junker, or anything of the sorts. Burger flippers have shiny new Kias. The middle class have giant SUVs. And so on.
Let's not lose track of what started the conversation.
It was somebody saying "the median family spends nowhere near that on a car".
That's what we're discussing. That the amount people pay for a car, is less than what people pay for a new car. That's the only point I leapt in to defend, and if you're arguing with me against other points, then you're talking to the wrong guy.
Look- the average number of arms for a tennis player is less than 2. Similarly, some (perhaps most) people spend their car-acquiring dollars on used cars. So, the average amount people spend on a car is less than the average sale price of a new car. QED, end of discussion.
Now, you want to argue that among people who buy a new car, $35k is acceptably average? Okay, fine, whatever, I don't care, and neither does anybody else in this thread.
Now, you want to argue that among people who buy a new car,
This conversation is specifically and only about new cars, in this case the Tesla Model 3. It is outrageous that you're implying that I'm the one diverting the conversation, when the very root post by dionidium was a completely irrelevant non-sequitur as they injected some completely irrelevant sociology bias into the conversation. If we were discussing the average price of a fast food meal, would a comment about a Cup O' Noodles have any relevance?
No one cares to argue what people pay for used cars, or for no car at all, because that is irrelevant to this discussion.
I'm aware of that. My point was it's in a range in which a very large number of cars are sold; claiming this price range means it's not going to be "mass-produced" is stretching it.
That shouldn't be necessary on this site, but since you asked.
Average (or mean) is the sum of the values divided by the number of values. Because of the way it is calculated, it is more likely to skew when the data includes extremely large or extremely small values. Median on the other hand is a way to measure the "middle value". For data sets of odd cardinality, it is simply the middle value, and for even cardinality, it is the mean of the two middlemost values. You can have a large number of extreme values with no effect on the median value, depending on the data.
As an example let us look at a hypothetical neighborhood. We have a family making 50k, another 100k, another 150k. Their average salary is 100k with the same median. Assume some super rich guy making 10 million. Our average goes up to several million dollars, but the median sits at 125k, more representative of where the data is clumped.
None of this to say that median is a good measurement in what I'll call malicious data sets. Imagine a data set with 1000 entries of negative 10m and 1000 of positive 10m. If I add a new data point of 5000, this is my median but doesn't represent my data at all.
Bonus: there's also "mode" which measure the value that has the most entries. E.g. in a set of 1 2 2 2 3 4 5, mode is 2.
I have owned many cars, and I have never paid more than $24k for a car. The only reason I even paid that much was that I needed a full sized truck. $40k for a car seems insane to me.
When I was at university my roommate was a rich mainlander chinese whose dad bought him an AMG mercedes. So the average car for that household was in the 100k's needless to say i wasn't driving anything near that.
