How do you outsource an electrician, or a carpenter?
If I (as a European) remember correctly, one of the US core values is the pursuit of happiness. That would imply to me that everyone should at least be given the chance to go to college - whether or not they decide to go (and graduate) is a different question.
I don't disagree with this, necessarily. I disagree with rhetoric that implies if you don't go to college, you are a second class citizen.
How do you outsource an electrician, or a carpenter?
I have no idea. But a few years ago, you could have said the same about truck or taxi drivers - and now it seems feasible that those jobs will be automated away in ten years.
For electricians, you could imagine that IoT/home automation tech will change a lot: Home electrics could become more complex and more locked-down, requiring additional qualifications. In the worst case, independent electricians could find themselves in a similar situation that independent car repair shops are today.
Or a company like TaskRabbit could employ their own electricians/plumbers/carpenters/etc... (at worse conditions) and decide to roll up the market.
Those are wild guesses. But my point is that jobs may change quickly in the future. having a broad education and additional qualifications gives you a better chance to deal with "disruption" in your area.
I disagree with rhetoric that implies if you don't go to college, you are a second class citizen.
That's not what I wanted to tell. But I don't think we are in a position to decide that. And I don't think it's correct to simply assume that college education plays no role and to conclude from that assumption that it's OK if certain people never get the choice to go to college.
For electricians, you could imagine that IoT/home automation tech will change a lot: Home electrics could become more complex and more locked-down, requiring additional qualifications. In the worst case, independent electricians could find themselves in a similar situation that independent car repair shops are today.
I would see this going in the direction of some auto mechanics--that you have to be certified by a particular company in order to work on their equipment. But, yes, as you point out, independent electricians, as a vocation, aren't going anywhere soon. There are too many homes (particularly in the east) with very old wiring.
Why are those jobs more likely to be automated than the jobs college graduates take? Are college graduates better able to deal with disruption, or do employers simply presume they are?
The rough framing business has gotten a lot more productive over the years. Nail guns and now precut lumber or factory made sub-assemblies or whatever.
I think this problem comes from something a little deeper. The U.S. is still very classist, giving prestige to "white collar" jobs, and considering "blue collar" work to be inferior. I think college education is often thought of as a means to "white collar" work.
Anecdotally, I think these tides may be slowly changing. I feel like a lot of people are beginning to see the value in craft (bakers, mechanics, carpenters, beer brewers, etc.)
For the residential construction industry, a lot more could be done in manufactured housing. Not necessarily complete mobile homes, but major chunks of real houses could be build in automated factories perhaps located in foreign countries. Then it only takes a few workers on the construction site to bolt the chunks together. This is already being done to some extent and will increase as building codes are updated and traditional construction practices die off.
If I (as a European) remember correctly, one of the US core values is the pursuit of happiness. That would imply to me that everyone should at least be given the chance to go to college - whether or not they decide to go (and graduate) is a different question.
I don't disagree with this, necessarily. I disagree with rhetoric that implies if you don't go to college, you are a second class citizen.