What if the odd's of disarming the guy are 95%?

yummyfajitas · on March 4, 2010

P( fight | takes wallet ) = 50%.

P( no injury | fight ) = 95%.

P( injury | hand over wallet ) = P(injury | fight) P(fight | hand over wallet) = 0.05 x 0.5 = 0.025

So P(no injury | hand over wallet) = 97.5%.

ErrantX · on March 4, 2010

good point :) However it makes a slight assumption that you still have 95% chance of winning if you hand over the wallet and are then attacked.

This is probably not the case as the attacker gains a reasonable advantage by being first (maybe only 2 or 3% in this case)

I also assumed the 50% was referring to the percentage chance of being actually harmed rather than having to fight. In which case your stats do break down.