Ya, your point is well made. I think where I would disagree is that cars have always been about identity. Nobody (or very few, at least) people buy a Cayenne because it's fast or performs well. People buy it because they think it says something about who they are. The fact that it's highly performant is just how you rationalize the price to the consumer.
Cars can get away with this because they are so well wrapped up with the presentation and identity of their owners/drivers. To some extent, this is true of phones. But I guess I just don't think it's nearly as much the case as it is with cars. Somewhat ironically, this is because an iPhone is not expensive enough to really say much about the wealth of its owner. At least - not in the way that a car does.
Admittedly, that might be slightly hold less true in developing economies, where the ownership of an iPhone really is something only the (relatively) wealthy can attain. But in that case, their rate of expansion is determined by the rate at which people rise out of poverty. Which I don't think is fast enough to outpace the declining upgrade rates.
Cars can get away with this because they are so well wrapped up with the presentation and identity of their owners/drivers. To some extent, this is true of phones. But I guess I just don't think it's nearly as much the case as it is with cars. Somewhat ironically, this is because an iPhone is not expensive enough to really say much about the wealth of its owner. At least - not in the way that a car does.
Admittedly, that might be slightly hold less true in developing economies, where the ownership of an iPhone really is something only the (relatively) wealthy can attain. But in that case, their rate of expansion is determined by the rate at which people rise out of poverty. Which I don't think is fast enough to outpace the declining upgrade rates.