According to the OP, we have a global "central-bank-led cash bubble" powered by "an ever flowing money hose."
If you believe interest rates are being kept "artificially low" (whatever that means) by the "money printing" of central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, then you will agree with the OP. In this view of the world, central banks are contributing to our current economic malaise: by keeping rates artificially low, central banks are causing asset prices to increase, making investment in productive endeavors less profitable for businesses and individuals.
If you believe interest rates are low primarily because businesses and individuals worldwide want to hoard cash (as a way to protect themselves against, say, potential deflation or insufficient aggregate demand), then you will disagree with the OP. In this view of the world, central banks are doing everything they can to motivate businesses and individuals to invest more in productive endeavors. Yet even when rates turn negative, individuals and businesses still want to hoard cash, as evidenced by their demand for negative-interest instruments.[1]
Saying that interest rates are low because of businesses hoarding cash (as opposed to massive expansion of Fed balance sheet which by definition controls interest rates) is absurd. The Fed themselves acknowledge that their policies are why interest rates are low or negative!
The true problem is that QE represents a wealth transfer to the richest among us. New money (which is more powerful at its introduction into the money supply) is funneled directly into equity markets or into foreign markets, creating massive asset bubbles, enriching the rich and robbing the poorest through inflation.
To suggest that massive Fed bond buying is not THE cause of low interest rates is ridiculous.
I believe the root of the problem is creating more money via institutions that don't need it. It would do a whole lot more good to give it to people who do need it and will therefore spend it. Their spending creates profitable business opportunities for others.
People and institutions that already have plenty of money are "hoarding cash" (and real estate) because, after other needs are taken care of, what remains is a concern about security if something unexpected happens. They don't see profitable investment opportunities worth the risk.
Unfortunately, central banks don't have much leeway in choosing where the money goes. Government budgets can distribute money to people through welfare, jobs programs or infrastructure investment. By creating a low interest rate, the central banks are essentially begging governments to take the free money and use it to stimulate the economy. Austerity proponents, deficit hawks and outright political deadlock is making this fail. Basically, "You can lead a horse to water, but can't make it drink."
The problem is banks are soaking up productivity by issuing money ahead of wealth creation. This sees them appropriate gains. It also has a distortion effect because people doing work who are clever see that there is no point working to create wealth as the real gains are to be made in appropriating wealth. Here you get eventually stagnation as all your physics PhDs are working for investment banks trying to arbitrage fiat tokens from .... PhDs in other investment banks.
Growth can and will return when the rentiers are lanced with land value tax, as the primary vector for money creation by banks is lending against land. When this ends growth returns.
I believe the notion of artificially low/high rates actually does have a precise meaning. If banks freely set rates as players in a competitive market based on prevailing inflation rates, demand for money, etc, that would be the "market rate" of money. "Artificially low" rates would be those rates set centrally which are lower than what the market rate would be in a competitive rate market.
Now it very well may be that zero would be the market rate of money, and the Fed is doing a great job of estimating it. But to say the notion of artificial rates has no meaning is a little odd.
> If banks freely set rates as players in a competitive market based on prevailing inflation rates, demand for money, etc, that would be the "market rate" of money.
But, they do.
Of course, "inflation rate" is in large part a product of monetary policy.
> Now it very well may be that zero would be the market rate of money, and the Fed is doing a great job of estimating it.
The Fed sets interest rate targets, and then directly takes action which affect those things which you suggest should be the inputs by which the market sets rates, which the market then actually takes as inputs, and sets the actual interest rates that are levied in practice.
> But to say the notion of artificial rates has no meaning is a little odd.
The notion of artificial rates has no meaning, because the things you suggest should be inputs in "natural" rates are not products of nature, but themselves "artificial" in that they are in many ways influenced by policy, and the first of them is not merely substantially influenced by monetary policy, its one of the two main things (alongside, but usually ahead of, employment) that monetary policy is aimed at controlling.
And, as a consequence, what you describe as the mechanism for "market rates" as opposed to "artificial rates" is the predominant way by which central bank interest rate targets are achieved.
Exactly. The Fed has very few mechanisms by which to inject money in the economy. Nothing they do dictates interest rates, but they can influence specific rates through open market operations. But you (and the banks) are free to charge whatever rate you want.
As the sibling says, the market rate is set by the banks - that's what LIBOR is. The central bank rate only sets an effective floor by offering a minimum coupon on government debt. This is partly why things get weird around zero.
There's no shortage of money, just a shortage of people and companies willing and able to borrow it.
(There are some subtleties here over things like the central bank "deposit window")
There is no hoarding. Banks create money out of thin air when they lend. Banks are not intermediaries of funds. Go keep your electronic tokens in their server, they can make more in the next row in the database.
Central banks QE is stopping an implosion. Banks issued money that could not be paid back as one must pay back the original fee and interest. You have to keep issuing more money into the face of this or it collapses. You do this by reducing rates. Then you hit zero and people cannot borrow more. Then central banks have to step in to plug the yawning chasm which is borne of banks saying they were creating wealth whilst in fact they have been appropriating labour and when the apex is reached you get to see the truth.
And you can't get that back. We took fiat tokens and they drank real wine, used real gasoline etc and all in exchange for fiat created ex nihilo.
More fool us.
ps looking forward to a hacker news "your submitting too fast (on a topic about finance on a site where VCs lend you fiat and you return your labour)"
> by keeping rates artificially low, central banks are causing asset prices to increase, making investment in productive endeavors less profitable
Central bank cash is agnostic as to whether you invest it in store-of-wealth assets or productive assets, so it's businesses and investors that make the decision to invest in the former instead of the latter. It seems silly for the OP to blame the central banks in this matter.
I believe this is a generation thing. Generation Y grew up with so many crisis and terror attacks, its just naturally everyone is hording their cash. Also a lot of people want to stay independent and mobile so they are not (yet) settling down.
Uh, historically the last 40 years have been pretty good. Sure it is worse than some of the years before that (but we did not have to go to 'nam so there is that). But historically you can't say Generation Y have had many crisis and terror attacks. Think about people born 1900-1910, they had two world wars to survive!
Honestly, please find me a generation that hasn't had to hear about one crisis after another. First world Gen Y'ers haven't seen nothing when you really look at it.
I think this is easily explained by economics alone: We're "printing money", only for the bulk of it to end up in fewer hands. Gen Y has no sense of future solvency based upon the miserly behavior of their parents and grandparents. Who basically were handed everything and decided really it was all theirs and no one else's. That their offspring should go out and rebuild the world again, while they hang onto all the useful capital. It's theirs, they did it on their own!
It makes sense for Gen Y to hang onto everything, cause really they have very little. At least, much less than their parents did. I don't have the link, but a study recently suggested Gen Y is going to make nearly $100k less over their lives than Gen X.
A ridiculous sense of entitlement is the problem when you're talking about the problems with our economy. Some how providing basic broadband service to everyone is not a right, never mind the real value it would bring to people that need it most (with bullshit arguments about how it's hard to run wires across the country. Was easy enough to build these giant concrete freeways though!). But being wealthy enough to own 7 homes and two dozen exotic cars is. Somehow, releasing a new iPhone every 12 months is a necessity (and all the efforts that make it happen). But the much smaller chore of proper mental health services are not. Somehow releasing a barely improved fleet of modern cars every year is a necessity. Basic healthcare is not.
We keep seeing bubbles because we keep putting tons of effort into ventures that benefit fewer and fewer people. We "fixed" things after the last bubble, but people are still becoming more and more disenfranchised. There's less buy-in, so a new bubble comes along of hype, the economy is getting better.... Oh wait nope cause we're letting too many people fall beside the wayside. They lose interest, quit investing, stop caring. Whatever it is.
The economy as a whole is only going to remain stable once we act more inclusively. Or we'll just keep seeing these financial bubbles, that are, IMO, really caused more by quickly getting buy in and turning things around, only for our shitty attention spans to kick in and realize 5-10 years later things are still shit in the real world.
All this extravagant bullshit we're told will improve us! Staring at this shit is important! Get pissed over headphone jacks! So we keep pushing for these bullshit things, and protecting that pipeline, which I think people are maybe realizing is just a sick joke.
If you believe interest rates are being kept "artificially low" (whatever that means) by the "money printing" of central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, then you will agree with the OP. In this view of the world, central banks are contributing to our current economic malaise: by keeping rates artificially low, central banks are causing asset prices to increase, making investment in productive endeavors less profitable for businesses and individuals.
If you believe interest rates are low primarily because businesses and individuals worldwide want to hoard cash (as a way to protect themselves against, say, potential deflation or insufficient aggregate demand), then you will disagree with the OP. In this view of the world, central banks are doing everything they can to motivate businesses and individuals to invest more in productive endeavors. Yet even when rates turn negative, individuals and businesses still want to hoard cash, as evidenced by their demand for negative-interest instruments.[1]
[1] http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/07/the-weird-new-normal-of-...