This just proves to me that the all the fear mongering that has been surfacing recently is because of the election. A few months ago the average person wouldn't have been talking about interest rates and the fed, you'd think from the discourse today that everybody had a Phd in Economics.
I'll just speak for myself here. The economy is definitely ''hot'' but my perception is that the current recovery is incredibly shaky and has been fueled by historically unprecedented central bank interventions. I don't have a PhD in economics but I can read a debt chart and I understand broadly what zero interest rate policies are meant to accomplish. When I read that >50% of all European sovereign debt now has negative yields, some warning lights go off in my head. Unlike in, say, 1998 or 2006, both years I was working full time in tech, when the economy seemed similarly hot but ''felt'' much more stable.
However, in terms of how the economy "felt", it was 2007 when that started biting, with Bear Stearns' travails becoming too prominent to easily ignore.
But, yeah, the mortgage market was already shows serious stress in 2016, but presumably nugget wasn't watching it, he says he was watching the malinvestment from the dot.com crash get resolved.
Again just one person's perspective but it felt like the mal-investment from previous asset bubbles had been allowed to more fully resolve itself. Certainly that was the case with the dot com crash there was real pain felt throughout the system. Whereas this time the housing crash morphed into a kind of economic twilight zone. I have friends who trade on Wall Street who tell me that the market now moves not on economic performance and fundamentals but on perceptions and predictions of Government intervention.
