I don't think the first will happen, since there are still millions of Macs in the wild (and many models still in production) which will not have the touchbar. Thus, the easiest path will be to simply duplicate on-screen functionality (or expose functionality already hidden behind menus).
First is that it should allow applications to reduce the number of persistent UI elements they draw to screen without actually losing context.
Second is it will let me jettison the cognitive load of remembering so many application-specific keyboard shortcuts.