You're in a bubble. No worries, we all are, I think New York Times had that "Clinton win probability" meter at >90% for many many months. It slipped to >80% or so on election day.
I've come to realize that all their statistics foo is just peddled propaganda in opaque packaging. Utterly worthless.
Yeah, I had a lot of faith in that opaque package (more specifically 538's than the NYT, and at least he was "only" giving Clinton a 73% chance) and I'm left wondering why. Even if Nate's model was right and we just landed in the 27% side of things... what good would faith in the model do me in the end?
I've come to realize that all their statistics foo is just peddled propaganda in opaque packaging. Utterly worthless.