The speculation is that the reason the switch didn't get triggered is related to the ddos attack on the dyn dns provider which happened shortly after that.
Nobody knows. All anyone knows is that A happened and B happened. Everything else is speculation, including how the switch might operate or whether or not the outage is related.
I'd recommend reading the chronology on the website, it's all the facts anyone knows for sure.. but regardless, at the end of the day, some proof that the man is alive would be nice.
That's unjustified equivocation, IMO. You're arguing that the probabilities are somehow "equal" (or at least of comparable magnitude), but I don't think that's even remotely the case.
Don't get me wrong! It's very worrying that we haven't heard anything from him. I think a simpler explanation is simply that he's been killed and that "they" are waiting for enough time to pass for either: 1) everyone to 'forget' his importance, or 2) to control the 'narrative' enough that "we" will hate him regardless.
EDIT: If he has been permanently incapacitated, I'd hope that he has staged a series of increasingly disruptive DMSes over, say, a few decades. I'm guessing there was enough data in some of the leaks for that.
