> If Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and Stephen Hawking etc all expressed belief in UFOs being from aliens, and you didn't know a lot about UFOs and affiliated cults, what would be the smart thing to believe?
That Elon Musk, Bill Gates and Stephen Hawking etc are all a little nutters when it comes to UFOs and aliens?
I don't know a lot about UFOs and affiliated cults, but I'm going to guess that those mentioned are not UFO experts just like they aren't machine learning experts.
> That's not really a premise. A better version would be "a likely path to super-intelligence will be a self-improving agent".
Excellent point, but that doesn't give a self-improving agent the ability to ignore computational complexity or the uncertainty of chaotic systems.
> That Elon Musk, Bill Gates and Stephen Hawking etc are all a little nutters when it comes to UFOs and aliens?
Yes! Elon Musk believes firmly that we're living in a simulation, and that doesn't make me believe in that theory more, it simply makes me admire Musk less.
Just because someone is or has been extremely successful doesn't mean they're right about everything. Many successful and intelligent people have been very religious: that's a testament to the human mind's complexity and frailty, not to the existence of God...
Madeleine Albright is a strong advocate of Herbalife: that doesn't change my opinion of Herbalife but it does change my opinion of Albright.
That's one. If as many people who have spoken out about AI risk would also "firmly believe we're in a simulation", it would shift my views (I would expect there to be some evidence or very strong arguments for it).
That Elon Musk, Bill Gates and Stephen Hawking etc are all a little nutters when it comes to UFOs and aliens?
I don't know a lot about UFOs and affiliated cults, but I'm going to guess that those mentioned are not UFO experts just like they aren't machine learning experts.
> That's not really a premise. A better version would be "a likely path to super-intelligence will be a self-improving agent".
Excellent point, but that doesn't give a self-improving agent the ability to ignore computational complexity or the uncertainty of chaotic systems.