I'm sorry that I don't have the time to respond to all of your assertions, but I have done a reasonable amount of research on one of the points and figured I'd add my $0.02.
> Why Trump isn't good for poor working class America - Assuming there's a large tax on every good coming into the country, then the cost of groceries will increase dramatically.
The United States is a net exporter of agricultural goods[1], where a large portion of the expense and challenge is transportation without creating a high amount of spoilage (as many of the products require a maintained temperature range and are only considered fit for human consumption within a (compared to dry goods) tight time-tolerance). On a much smaller scale, if you've been to a farmer's market and you've noted that the goods may come from a number of smaller farms, this (along with normalizing product with slightly variadic crop-yield) is often the "why."
As is intuitive, the challenges of transporting (food) product become more complicated over greater distances and time. This very obviously translates to greater expense, which means that the economic choice to sell internationally is only made when less profit can be had if remaining in the domestic market. An exception to this pattern is if a product is unrealistic to turn a profit on if attempting to grow in a non-native climate (e.g. trying to grow bananas in Alaska or coffee).[2]
What this means is that the USA can handily supply its own food product, with its lands available for agriculture easily being enough for its population, opposed to high-density regions such as China, which are approaching the point of being dependent on globalization to feed its population or a foray into geopolitics to get more arable land.[3] Put another way, the USA is rich in food goods to the point that, unless Russia decides to make up for a major global deficit[4], the US can demand higher prices for its exports. Further, being the world's dominant market, the USA can demand more favorable prices on its imports, due to the fact that it is more than capable of domestic supply and, if the cost of international trade becomes unwieldy, will instead invest in domestic infrastructure and supply, which adds further challenges for international competition -- "the cost of groceries" will only increase to the point that it becomes logical to switch to domestic supply. Coffee and tropical foods may increase in price, but consumption rates are a marketing problem due to a wealth of substitute goods.
Just two minor points - be careful not to treat "agricultural goods" and "food" as the same. As one example, the US is a major (THE major) producer and exporter of corn...but a dizzying amount of that corn is NOT for direct human consumption. It's largely animal feed, and a few industrial uses.
This also serves as a reminder that there are relative advantages. The US is great (climate-wise) for producing corn, soybean, etc, but there are some OTHER foods that we are less good at producing than other countries, be it climate or infrastructure. Basic trade principles show that it's better all around if everyone focuses on their specialties and trades rather than each trying to be fully self-sufficient.
So it's a bit simplistic to say our grocery prices will rise only to the point where it makes sense to switch to domestic production...that switch implies a lot of inefficiencies, which means that there is an upper cap on how much prices can rise, but not that we want to get to that point.
> Just two minor points - be careful not to treat "agricultural goods" and "food" as the same. As one example, the US is a major (THE major) producer and exporter of corn...but a dizzying amount of that corn is NOT for direct human consumption. It's largely animal feed, and a few industrial uses.
Oh, totally. Corn, specifically, has a really interesting history in grading, purpose, and politics in America. A lot of corn growing is meant to keep supply of other good down, that is, if the farm is not just paid to _not grow_ at all.
> The US is great (climate-wise) for producing corn, soybean, etc, but there are some OTHER foods that we are less good at producing than other countries, be it climate or infrastructure.
That's somewhat true, but becomes more true in time with repeat yield of nitrogen-fed corn production. That's mostly infrastructure though (with some time to rotate and repair soil).
> Basic trade principles show that it's better all around if everyone focuses on their specialties and trades rather than each trying to be fully self-sufficient.
Better "all around" for market efficiency in international-driven trade. The market in New York State could be optimized for specialized production that would well-exceed its own demand (with a couple areas of Long Island converting from specialty/rare goods to more general production).
> So it's a bit simplistic to say our grocery prices will rise only to the point where it makes sense to switch to domestic production...that switch implies a lot of inefficiencies, which means that there is an upper cap on how much prices can rise, but not that we want to get to that point.
You said it -- there is a huge amount of waste and risk in going international with product, so producers will go domestic at the earliest point possible. Foodtech (why I've done research into this topic) is really fascinating because of the complexity and fuzzy political costs.
Informative comment. I would add that government subsidies for industrial production from China and for agricultural production from the US both distort the global economy.
The simplistic textbook economics case for "free trade" simply doesn't exist in the real world because the underlying assumptions do not hold.
Of course, for what it's worth, I wrote my response with those factors (subsidies, no such thing as actual "free trade") in mind.
However, the USA's role in food security for countries that rely on globalist trade structures cannot be overstated -- for the example of China, in the absence of very significant new trade agreements, the US could demand higher prices for its food exports, as their alternative would be reverting to far less profitable industries.
> Why Trump isn't good for poor working class America - Assuming there's a large tax on every good coming into the country, then the cost of groceries will increase dramatically.
The United States is a net exporter of agricultural goods[1], where a large portion of the expense and challenge is transportation without creating a high amount of spoilage (as many of the products require a maintained temperature range and are only considered fit for human consumption within a (compared to dry goods) tight time-tolerance). On a much smaller scale, if you've been to a farmer's market and you've noted that the goods may come from a number of smaller farms, this (along with normalizing product with slightly variadic crop-yield) is often the "why."
As is intuitive, the challenges of transporting (food) product become more complicated over greater distances and time. This very obviously translates to greater expense, which means that the economic choice to sell internationally is only made when less profit can be had if remaining in the domestic market. An exception to this pattern is if a product is unrealistic to turn a profit on if attempting to grow in a non-native climate (e.g. trying to grow bananas in Alaska or coffee).[2]
What this means is that the USA can handily supply its own food product, with its lands available for agriculture easily being enough for its population, opposed to high-density regions such as China, which are approaching the point of being dependent on globalization to feed its population or a foray into geopolitics to get more arable land.[3] Put another way, the USA is rich in food goods to the point that, unless Russia decides to make up for a major global deficit[4], the US can demand higher prices for its exports. Further, being the world's dominant market, the USA can demand more favorable prices on its imports, due to the fact that it is more than capable of domestic supply and, if the cost of international trade becomes unwieldy, will instead invest in domestic infrastructure and supply, which adds further challenges for international competition -- "the cost of groceries" will only increase to the point that it becomes logical to switch to domestic supply. Coffee and tropical foods may increase in price, but consumption rates are a marketing problem due to a wealth of substitute goods.
[0] https://www.ers.usda.gov/ [1] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery... [2] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery... [3] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12285198 [4] https://www.ft.com/content/af66f51e-6515-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad...