Until companies actually launch their products, I think nothing is a foregone conclusion. We don't know that Volvo's technology is just going to work flawlessly. People assumed that about Tesla and at least 1 person died (there are reports of accidents in China as well that tend to miss the US media).
I am strongly against the PR blitz that self-driving cars have been getting for years, but to judge a company's product before they have a product is a little presumptuous.
Each company has its pros and cons. Waymo certainly seems to have the current lead, but they bled so much talent it's strongly indicative of a serious internal cultural problem. Delphi has been steadily improving their technology over the years, but as more automakers build their own tech it will be hard for them to find a buyer. Argo is the new up and comer, but they haven't really announced anything other than a large amount of funding and some great leadership. Volvo seems to be doing a great job and I hope they deliver on their promises, but they haven't launched yet so who knows what will happen. Uber pursued the technology aggressively and that has led to something of a shitshow, and they've already lost a lot of talent. Tesla had the PR machine that is Elon Musk behind it and their customers love them (and many of their customers believe they have level 4 autonomy) but their track record for self-driving technology is questionable. Cruise has a great business model by working with Lyft and GM and have clearly developed quickly, but they haven't released nearly as much data as Waymo. Then there are the others that haven't really had any PR announcements and the companies that are completely in stealth mode.
I don't think anybody knows what's going to happen.
One of the few sources of objective data is the CA DMV's disconnect and crash reports.[1] There, Google/Waymo has two orders of magnitude fewer disconnects per mile than anybody else testing in California.
A certain level of paranoia in the design is required. The kind of paranoia that aviation engineers have. Volvo gets this - they have dual everything, lots of sensors, and their CEO says that if there's an accident in autonomous mode, it's Volvo's fault. Google got it while Chris Urmson was in charge. The others, not so much. Tesla ... many of their customers believe they have level 4 autonomy. Yes. At least one death is clearly attributable to customer overconfidence in the system.
One thing has become quite clear - expecting the driver to back up the self-driving system on a second by second basis does not work. If the driver can tune out, they will tune out. It's now clear, even to Tesla, that if you don't have level 4 automation, you must keep the driver's hands on the wheel.
> We don't know that Volvo's technology is just going to work flawlessly. People assumed that about Tesla and at least 1 person died //
There are two problems for autonomous vehicles that this part of your comment highlights - one is how good a driver is good enough, is it good enough if they have less accidents than a taxi-driver?
The other is managing the negative perception when the press report deaths, even if the vehicles are safer and produce less deaths than human drivers, the press will ensure the perception is negative despite what the statistics may show.
I am strongly against the PR blitz that self-driving cars have been getting for years, but to judge a company's product before they have a product is a little presumptuous.
Each company has its pros and cons. Waymo certainly seems to have the current lead, but they bled so much talent it's strongly indicative of a serious internal cultural problem. Delphi has been steadily improving their technology over the years, but as more automakers build their own tech it will be hard for them to find a buyer. Argo is the new up and comer, but they haven't really announced anything other than a large amount of funding and some great leadership. Volvo seems to be doing a great job and I hope they deliver on their promises, but they haven't launched yet so who knows what will happen. Uber pursued the technology aggressively and that has led to something of a shitshow, and they've already lost a lot of talent. Tesla had the PR machine that is Elon Musk behind it and their customers love them (and many of their customers believe they have level 4 autonomy) but their track record for self-driving technology is questionable. Cruise has a great business model by working with Lyft and GM and have clearly developed quickly, but they haven't released nearly as much data as Waymo. Then there are the others that haven't really had any PR announcements and the companies that are completely in stealth mode.
I don't think anybody knows what's going to happen.