Also, to put yourself in the shoes of a country (in terms of crisis). Imagine you're a guy with several women:
Some women are chill with being friends and understand that.
Some women want you to settle, but you don't or can't.
Some women just hate you. Some women share no interest but could be converted depending on time, resource allocation (e.g. time or else), etc.
After a while things seem simple, then you notice time conflicts, argument conflicts. Then you begin to think: "What if they're doing the same thing I'm doing?"
Then comes in the role of intelligence collection and plausible deniability as well of minimizing evidence showing alternative events of the same story.
Then, of course will come a time when alliances are formed. Are you with them, or are you not? Intel sharing? What if they compare the metadata of x and y event and see an outlier?
Also, to put yourself in the shoes of a country (in terms of crisis). Imagine you're a guy with several women:
Some women are chill with being friends and understand that. Some women want you to settle, but you don't or can't. Some women just hate you. Some women share no interest but could be converted depending on time, resource allocation (e.g. time or else), etc.
After a while things seem simple, then you notice time conflicts, argument conflicts. Then you begin to think: "What if they're doing the same thing I'm doing?"
Then comes in the role of intelligence collection and plausible deniability as well of minimizing evidence showing alternative events of the same story.
Then, of course will come a time when alliances are formed. Are you with them, or are you not? Intel sharing? What if they compare the metadata of x and y event and see an outlier?