Learn to live in a world where climate change is happening and adjust accordingly. There is no way going back now. The party is coming to an end. We must go forward.
You don't have to solve this problem in one day by yourself. You probably cannot really "solve" it at all. It's time to let go of things we cannot save and hold on to those which grow valuable in the future.
I really resonate with this comment. The best way to 'deal' with climate change on an individual level is to always vote for folks who are trying to rein it in, to live your life with a minimal carbon footprint, and to create plans for larger, more intense weather events.
Even the high end of predictions aren't expecting an increase in intense weather events bigger than what you might get if you were a bit unlucky over the next century.
Love that spin. The low end of predictions is that the most stable of ecosystems will regularly experience the extreme weather previously reserved for "once-in-a-century" events in the most volatile regions.
On the "high-end" is a drastic change in the Earth's shape due to gravity with a meter+ of sea level rise around the equator, runaway exponential heating feedback loops triggered in Siberia and like half the ocean floor, and the depletion of almost all potable fresh water currently supplying a population of over 7 billion.
But yeah, if "unlucky over the next century" means the sun will go supernova, we're f-ing peachy!
Actually its much more likely we'll be hit by a massive CME[1,2] rather than the Sun going Nova. That will destroy massive amounts of automation and compute power all at once which will rapidly destabilize highly automated economies.
But there is zero we can do about that so not worth getting worried over.
Wrong. The low end is that extreme weather events get less frequent [1]. The high end is that they get more frequent -- but the amount is such that you're not going to get hit with more extreme weather over the next century than what you would get if you were a bit unlucky.
Your second paragraph isn't talking about weather events at all.
As far as I can tell the link you provide argues exactly the opposite of what you're saying:
> In a warmer future climate, there will be an increased risk of more intense, more frequent and longer-lasting heat waves.
> In a warmer future climate, most Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models project increased summer dryness and winter wetness in most parts of the northern middle and high latitudes. Summer dryness indicates a greater risk of drought. Along with the risk of drying, there is an increased chance of intense precipitation and flooding due to the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere.
> In concert with the results for increased extremes of intense precipitation, even if the wind strength of storms in a future climate did not change, there would be an increase in extreme rainfall intensity.
> There is evidence from modelling studies that future tropical cyclones could become more severe, with greater wind speeds and more intense precipitation. Studies suggest that such changes may already be underway; there are indications that the average number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per year has increased over the past 30 years. Some modelling studies have projected a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones globally due to the increased stability of the tropical troposphere in a warmer climate, characterised by fewer weak storms and greater numbers of intense storms. A number of modelling studies have also projected a general tendency for more intense but fewer storms outside the tropics, with a tendency towards more extreme wind events and higher ocean waves in several regions in association with those deepened cyclones.
How do you get from that to your statement: 'The low end is that extreme weather events get less frequent'?
You are also simply repeating your assertion 'but the amount is such that you're not going to get hit with more extreme weather over the next century than what you would get if you were a bit unlucky', citing no evidence.
I imagine it's the sentence "Some modelling studies have projected a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones globally...", which represents a decrease in one particular (important) kind of extreme weather event, although it says that in this case the tropical cyclones that do occur could be more intense. However, that might be the only kind of extreme weather event that the linked document mentions might become rarer; it also mentions other kinds of events for which it only mentions increased likelihoods, not decreased likelihoods.
A large reinsurer has to evaluate trends in weather and the associated risks of e.g. storm damage, as for them every percentage point is meaningful.
However, you can treat them as an information source about risk - if there would be a significant increase in likelihood of extreme weather, then you'd see it reflected in the insurance rates, and if not - well, they have done the homework and are betting literal billions that the worry is just an exaggeration for now. If the insurance rates aren't doubling, then the risks haven't doubled for sure.
Learn to live in a world where climate change is happening and adjust accordingly. There is no way going back now. The party is coming to an end. We must go forward.
You don't have to solve this problem in one day by yourself. You probably cannot really "solve" it at all. It's time to let go of things we cannot save and hold on to those which grow valuable in the future.