He's right on most of the stuff he says in that article actually. Let's have a quick breakdown:
- Electronic publishing will not surpass traditional newspapers: newspapers may now be found online, but the majority of substantial content out there is still produced the out fashioned way by old fashioned reporters. Bloggers have done a pretty decent job of covering stories which are too niche for the mainstream presses (Engadget, TechCrunch etc), but have not come even remotely close to challenging traditional media. I saw a PBS documentary on the Iraq War which mentioned that traditional newspapers are both profitable and account for about 80% of new stories, with talking heads on TV mostly taking their cues from papers.
- multimedia software replaces teachers: I'd like to see someone try and argue he was wrong on this one.
- computers replace books - well, it hasn't happened yet, and it seems it won't happen until computers start to resemble books so much that there isn't any practical difference anymore. The Kindle, E-Ink, etc are all trying to make computers more like books, since no one likes reading off a screen, so I'll give him this point too.
- 'ocean of uneditted data': wikipedia and google have made a huge difference here, so he's wrong on this point
- digital networks change governance: Now that I think about it, isn't it a bit ironic that the rise of blogs, distributed networks, open discussion forums etc all took place during one of the most orwellian administrations ever? Unseen levels of secrecy, scandals too numerous to mention, a disasterous war, erosion of civil liberties, increased surveillance... one of the hubris around electronic governance made an once of difference.
- cyberbusiness: partially right on this one. The internet is great for some kinds of business and quite horrible at others.
- Online communities cannot replace real human ones: again, completely right on this one. While online communities are better than nothing, they pale in comparison with real human ones. There's a very good reason why startup hubs are as relevant as ever and YCombinator and its clones demand that you move to their location in order to partipate.
OVerall, a pretty good record of predictions and I suspect a lot of them will continue to hold for a very long time.
- Electronic publishing will not surpass traditional newspapers: newspapers may now be found online, but the majority of substantial content out there is still produced the out fashioned way by old fashioned reporters. Bloggers have done a pretty decent job of covering stories which are too niche for the mainstream presses (Engadget, TechCrunch etc), but have not come even remotely close to challenging traditional media. I saw a PBS documentary on the Iraq War which mentioned that traditional newspapers are both profitable and account for about 80% of new stories, with talking heads on TV mostly taking their cues from papers.
- multimedia software replaces teachers: I'd like to see someone try and argue he was wrong on this one.
- computers replace books - well, it hasn't happened yet, and it seems it won't happen until computers start to resemble books so much that there isn't any practical difference anymore. The Kindle, E-Ink, etc are all trying to make computers more like books, since no one likes reading off a screen, so I'll give him this point too.
- 'ocean of uneditted data': wikipedia and google have made a huge difference here, so he's wrong on this point
- digital networks change governance: Now that I think about it, isn't it a bit ironic that the rise of blogs, distributed networks, open discussion forums etc all took place during one of the most orwellian administrations ever? Unseen levels of secrecy, scandals too numerous to mention, a disasterous war, erosion of civil liberties, increased surveillance... one of the hubris around electronic governance made an once of difference.
- cyberbusiness: partially right on this one. The internet is great for some kinds of business and quite horrible at others.
- Online communities cannot replace real human ones: again, completely right on this one. While online communities are better than nothing, they pale in comparison with real human ones. There's a very good reason why startup hubs are as relevant as ever and YCombinator and its clones demand that you move to their location in order to partipate.
OVerall, a pretty good record of predictions and I suspect a lot of them will continue to hold for a very long time.