Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

>renewables can not make up the difference then, now or in the foreseeable future, no matter how hard we wish it could

Can you maybe provide some back of the napkin math on why not, or a link to someplace that has done this?



The smallest nuclear plant in the US generates 582 MW of power with a capacity factor of 92.1%. That capacity factor means that in a year you'll get 582MW * 9258 hours per year * 92.1% = 4.9Trillion kwh/year of power. That's how much we need to replace if we chose to shut down the SMALLEST nuclear plant in the US (the largest is almost 4,000 MW).

The largest wind turbine being designed anywhere in the world right now would be 500 meters tall (taller than the empire state building) with 200 meter blades and at peak output would generate 50MW. Capacity factors for on-shore plants in the US average about 33%. So 50MW * 9258 hours per year * 33% = 0.152T KWh/year. The largest turbine currently built in the world gets 8MW not 50MW so 0.024T kwh/year.

I.e. we would need ~200 of the biggest wind turbines ever built to equal the amount of energy we get out of the smallest nuclear reactor currently running. And that is just to break even. Comparing the median nuclear plant to the median wind turbine makes the numbers even worse.

Hydro has the problem in the US that there aren't any good sites left. Solar costs even more per KW or per KWh than wind does (~1.5x is what I've seen at grid scale in the US) especially when you include the storage needed to maintain consistent supply throughout a day (~3x wind)




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: